What Jumps Out: Bad School Report

In the end, the Donald Trump administration chose to put Colombia in school detention, or decertified it as an ally in the war on drugs. Whilst there was much hand-wringing before the decision, in the end, the consequences are likely to be minimal as Trump declared there would be no trade or security measures taken. The reason for that is simple: it’s an arbitrary political decision based on ideological differences – anyone doubting that, check out the Venezuelan situation.

The US may offer some minimal help with the Colombian war on drugs. Still, it is local soldiers and law enforcement officers, as well as civilians and human rights workers, who are killed daily, gunned down, or bombed by a plethora of armed gangs.

Gustavo Petro is right to state that cocaine is a demand-driven business and that the US, Europe, and other major narcotics markets are doing next to nothing. Sadly, the practicalities of legalizing cocaine are impossible, desirable as it is. Could Petro do more? Probably, but whilst cocaine planting and harvests have risen, it is seizures that have risen most.

Away from drugs….”It’s the economy, stupid.”

ISE (economic activity) for July rose 4.3% according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia, well ahead of expectations and the highest reading of 2025. YTD, we stand at 2.7% – the comparative in 2024 was 1.44%. The main drivers were once again commerce (+6.69%) & the public sector (+7.04%). Surprisingly, agriculture (1.64%) is struggling.

The real sector data for the same month was again even stronger than analysts expected. Retail sales rose 17.9% with vehicles (+57% across various sectors), telephones/electronics (+56%) & other durable goods driving the gains.

Manufacturing production (5.8%) also rose more than expected, with 32/39 sectors gaining. This data point had been a drag until recently – now, not so much, which is very positive.

Surprisingly, this week, the politicians were (very) suspiciously quiet and there was little to no mention of the 2026 budget or tax reform – that won’t last.

That is about it for my last day in my 50s.

Take care.

Roops.

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Cocaine bricks seized by the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA): Photo credit: DEA.