What Jumps Out: Mixed Messages

Another ‘interesting’ week in Colombia – there again, when isn’t it? Headlines revolved around violence, confidence, debt, risk, and the budget – amongst other things.

FARC dissidents downed an electricity pylon near Medellín in what the governor described as a terrorist attack on Antioquia. No Colombia – Antioquia. Subtly and indirectly, the blame was pointed in Petro’s direction amidst the continued whiff of federalism. Medellín Mayor Fico Gutierrez was nowhere to be seen as he was busy in Washington trying to score points versus Gustavo Petro, having already been told not to go.

Perhaps the real tragedy is that a steel pylon makes more headlines than any of the 140 social leaders assassinated thus far in 2025 – on course for an annual record. Unfortunately, there is little political capital to be found in such tragedies.

Fedesarrollo reported a surprise drop in August consumer confidence to -2.4%. Arguably, stubborn inflation will prevent rate cuts, but overall, it doesn’t jive with packed-out shopping malls, booming vehicle sales, and increasing domestic demand, which is driving imports upwards.

We have been hearing for the longest time, from the opposition, of course, that Colombia is an investment pariah; that may be true, but this week it is struggling to stack up. The Ministerio de Hacienda completed the largest bond issue (€4.1 billion EUR) in the country’s history, but perhaps the real headlines were the total demand of €25.4 billion EUR. What could drive such madness amongst the international investment community? It could be a GDP estimate of 2.6% or record low unemployment, perhaps even the stock market, which is up 50% in dollar terms YTD and hit a record high this week. Or perhaps it is that the EMBI country’s risk levels have been at their lowest level since 2021?

What you don’t want to listen to is those who will claim that all the above is because Petro only has a year left in power. No one has a clue what will happen in June 2026, and the current lineup of presidential candidates is a rogues’ gallery of the failed and self-interested.

The 2026 budget debate was suspended for lack of quorum. Colombian politicians are as irresponsible as ever. If you are against the proposed $557 billion COP budget, then turn up, do your job, and debate it for the sake of the country. Above all, the government doesn’t have the votes to pass it if debated conventionally. The risk now is that it will be passed by decree. If it does, the blame doesn’t lie with the government, and the opposition shouldn’t come crying in 2026.

Also in Congress, Ministerio de Hacienda, German Avila was discussing a 40% haircut to the tax reform, wholly predictable; however, how that might be impacted by the above budget situation is tough to call.

Enough for today, have a wonderful end to the week.

My regards.

Roops.

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FARC dissidents arrested in Putumayo, Peru during Operation Armageddon. Photo credit: Ministerio de Defensa del Perú/Wikipedia.