What Jumps Out: Basket Case or Bread Basket

Violence returned-Does it ever really go away?-to Colombia yesterday with a bombing in Cali that left multiple civilians dead and many more injured. This time the reported perpetrators are the dissident FARC – last time it was another group, but sadly again it is the sort of headlines that cripples the country.

Everyone wants to date the good-looking girl, and that young lady is called Miss Tourism. It has been picking up since COVID-19, and has been one of the big Gustavo Petro bets and has paid off. Last year, for the first time, Colombia (6.9 million) was the most visited country in South America – this year that number is set to grow another 4.3% to 7.2 million, and in reality, the country is just getting started. Tourism is threatening to bring more dollars into Colombia than oil in 2025.

No surprise then that a dozen presidential pre-candidates descended on the ANATO tourism forum in Medellín to sit on panels to give their views on a subject they know nothing about. Hours of delegates’ time were wasted on listening to the peacocks and peahens as they preened their feathers.

Another sector undergoing a boom is agriculture, where, coincidentally, Petro has also been concentrating his efforts. Coffee, flowers, and palm oil are all booming, but there are plenty of other products. Petro has tried to push ahead with the repatriation of lands stolen during the armed conflict, especially by the paramilitaries, but this is a slow process. One can only imagine what a bread basket (as opposed to basket case) Colombia would be if 1% of its population (Oxfam) didn’t control 81% of the land with little or no interest in farming or sharing it – the worst reading in Latam.

Elsewhere (say it quietly so as not to upset the elite), domestic demand is following confidence upwards with imports according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia rising another 14.5% in June, driven by capital and consumer goods – the downside is that the growing economy added another $1.1 billion USD to the deficit.

The initial tax reform has been presented in conjunction with the budget – both will be a struggle to get through congress as the peacocks/peahens prepare themselves for the March elections. This will be a challenge for Ministerio de Hacienda Germán Ávila. What really sticks in the throat is ex-finance ministers such as Mauricio Cárdenas telling us how they would do it – they already had their chance, and failed.

There is much news, but just to mention that in this disaster of a country, which everyone should leave, the stock market continues to rage (+34% YTD) on improving volumes and more Colombians than ever before (80,000) traded the stock market in 1H2025, according to Asobolsa.

Just another of the inconvenient truths. One can only imagine that if Colombia is even half the ship was rowing in the same direction for just one day.

Have a great day.

Roops.

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FARC dissidents arrested in Putumayo, Peru, during Operation Armageddon. Photo credit: Ministerio de Defensa del Perú/Wikipedia.