What Jumps Out: Back to Work

Another long weekend was completed in Colombia, and another one where either little happened, or the journalists were on the beach and not reporting.

Of course, the plight of Gaza made the headlines because, in some small way, it has been reflected in local politics, with the polarization we have seen around the world appearing in Colombia. The extreme right have pinned themselves to Donald Trump & Benjamin Netanyahu from day one, the left and Gustavo Petro have made their thoughts very clear at the United Nations, whilst ANDI – Asociación Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia and big business, only seem to worry about the Pesos in their pockets. We already see them in the press asking for trade relations with Israel to be re-established immediately – given the historical fragility of the Middle East, perhaps there will be, rightfully, some wait and see.

This will be a big week for the 2026 budget as congress gets back to work after a well-earned holiday (for those not familiar with British sarcasm, this is an example). A couple of weeks ago, along with the tax reform, we seemed to have an agreement. However, these are rabid times in Colombian politics; we could get anything from ‘done’ to ‘lack of quorum’.

We will have the latest real sector data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia for August. The most recent figures for July were extremely strong, and analysts will be looking for more of the same. Whilst inflation’s stubbornness has kept overnight rates (9.25%) higher than anticipated at the outset of 2025, growth remains healthy. Bancolombia, in its most recent update, suggests the economy is moving into a more favorable stage, but of course with a wary eye on the deficit situation.

Amidst all this, the stock market remains in rude health despite concerns over the impact of Trumponomics on the US markets. The COLCAP may have dropped 1% on Friday, but it remains 35% (Peso) & 52% (Dollar Terms) higher YTD. Volumes are less than ideal, however, for local investors, it’s been a bumper year.

Finally, for this morning, gold. One of the abject failures of every single government this century is to capitalize on Colombia’s gold reserves. From Uribe to Santos to Duque to Petro, not one of them, or their respective ministers, has done enough to capitalize on an asset that could have paid so many of Colombia’s debts. Instead, there has been a lack of direction, and far too much of the production has fallen into the hands of illegal groups who are receiving the benefits of the increase in gold prices, which seems set to continue.

Have a wonderful week.

Regards.

Roops.

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Headline photo credit: erik_and_so_on from Pixabay.