Colombia’s Economy Grew an Estimated 2.7% in the Second Quarter, Bancolombia’s NowCast Estimates Show

First-half growth overall of 2.4% keeps activity below its potential

Colombia’s economy expanded at an estimated annual pace of 2.7% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest reading of the Grupo Cibest NowCast Bancolombia indicator. The figure sits 20 basis points below the rolling quarter ending in May, which the group revised upward by 20 basis points to 2.9%. With the second-quarter estimate in hand, the economy is now judged to have grown 2.4% year-over-year in the first half of the year, a pace the analysts say confirms that activity remains below its potential.

“The economy is estimated to have grown 2.4% year-over-year in the first half, confirming that economic activity remains below its potential.” — Grupo Cibest, Economic, Industry and Market Research (July 2, 2026)

NowCast Bancolombia is a family of proprietary, high-frequency indicators built by Grupo Cibest — the financial holding group that owns Bancolombia (NYSE: CIB) and adopted its current name in May 2025 — from transactions across the group’s payment channels. The indices are designed to complement, not replace, the official statistics published by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE, the National Administrative Department of Statistics), whose figures are available through its website.

For the second quarter, the group revised its NowCast forecast upward by 10 basis points to 2.7%, bringing the projection into line with the market consensus average among analysts. The indicator rose from 2.6% at the end of May to 2.7% at the end of June, matching the 2.7% consensus.

Subdued Growth Across the Board

The monthly readings were more subdued. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the NowCast index contracted 1.2% from the prior month in June. In year-over-year terms against June 2025, growth eased to 1.9%, some 0.5 percentage points below the May reading of 2.4%. Measured as a three-month moving average, year-over-year growth held at 2.7%.

At the sector level, the second quarter showed a divergence between primary and secondary activities. Faster growth appeared in recreation, professional services, agriculture, and manufacturing. The public sector, real estate, communications, trade, and electricity utilities held steady growth rates. Construction activity continued to decelerate, while mining was the only sector to contract by the close of the quarter.

Grupo Cibest’s sector heat map, which tracks year-over-year change on a three-month moving-average basis, put entertainment as the standout in June at 9.7%, followed by financial services at 6.0%, and wholesale and retail trade at 4.0%. Manufacturing reached 3.7% and agriculture 3.5%, both near the top of their recent ranges. At the other end, construction slowed sharply to 0.6% after running above 3% for much of the past year, the information sector managed just 0.2%, and mining slipped to -0.5%.

The report was prepared by Grupo Cibest’s Economic, Industry and Market Research area, led on quantitative work by Arturo Yesid González Peña, the group’s Head of Quantitative & Analytics, with Sebastián Ospina Cuartas serving as data controller. It follows the group’s prior-month estimate, which had pointed to a second-quarter acceleration toward 2.6%.

Above: The construction industry’s growth continued to decelerate as Grupo Cibest reports a 2.7% economic growth for Colombia as a whole in the second quarter. Stock photo by Ncpancy via Pixabay.