What Jumps Out : Narco Culture

Decent Colombians have, since the day I have arrived, railed against the narco-culture especially in Medellin. They are sick to the back teeth of watching obvious mafia boys & girls rubbing their faces in the mud, as they cruise around in their $100,000 cars, purchased with their ill-gotten gains from narcotics. The authorities see them as well – but do little to nothing.

No hard working Colombian ideologically has any issue with the cocaine barons being cut off at the knees, however the current tactic of destroying motorboats with missiles from miles away, isn’t the way to go. They may well be up to no good, but with no evidence whatsoever, Trump and his War Department are only alienating themselves further from the countries of Latam. Both Venezuela and Colombia have seen boats attacked, whilst Ecuador have cited the death of one of their innocent citizen in another.

The question is why not stop one of these boats and prove what their ‘irrefutable’ intelligence is telling them ? Therein lies the dilemma for many – Colombian security forces have reported record seizures this year, it would be easier to quantify the situation if the US did the same.

Instead, we have no remorse from Trump, his peanut gallery in Florida or the henchmen who are ordering the attacks – from a nice safe distance. All the while, further inflaming the pre-election polarization in Colombia.

Fedesarrollo lastest October survey saw YE Overnight Rate expectations rise to 9.25%, where we are now, as the CPI estimate also rose from 5.08%-5.28%. Part of the reason for this is GDP which whilst unchanged (2.6%) for 2025, rose 0.1% to 2.9% for 2026. The same survey expects the Stock Market to continue rising despite already surging 56.5% ($ terms) YTD.

This ongoing economic improvement led to another dent in the deficit situation according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia. August saw another $2bn added as Imports rose 5.7% YoY whilst Exports dropped 0.1% driven by an 18.1% decline in extractive industries.

Bancolombia also reported economic resilience, with real spending growing 4.72% YoY in September according to their own internal studies.

Away from this week the news is hard to fathom. What is true, rumor, propaganda, pre-election bunkum or influencer imagination…and it is only going to get worse.

Have a good day

Roops