What Jumps Out: The Week Ahead, October 18
A delayed start to the week in Colombia due to the Columbus Day holiday and in reality, it isn’t a week, at this moment, that looks to have much awaiting investors.
On the macro front we finished last week with better-than-expected real sector data for August with both Retail Sales (+8.1%) & Manufacturing Production (+9.1%) above expectations and reflecting a slight increase in pace from July.
With those stronger than expected numbers, perhaps we are all set for another strong Import number on Wednesday – ‘IF’ it hits the US$6.9bn it will be the second highest number on record and lead to a sizable Trade Deficit of US$1.8bn for August. This is due to two factors – firstly an economy that refuses to lie down and secondly an August export number that was below expectations.
On Friday we also had the Central Bank’s latest survey for October, and everything continues to trend upwards versus September:
Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.
- YE22 inflation 11.88% (from 11.33%).
- YE23 Inflation 6.74% (6.30%).
- YE22 Interest Rates 11.36% (11.04%).
- August 23 Interest Rates 9.97% (9.78%).
The markets will continue to follow the rest of the world, which suggests we will be playing catch up on Tuesday, unless of course the world decides things were overdone on Monday.
Other headlines this week will likely revolve around the ongoing debate over the tax reform which is slowly but surely making its way through Congress. There have been alterations already and no doubt more will follow but in general terms it is holding fast. The chattering classes continue to criticize – even though most experts agree the country needs to increase revenues – the issue is that everyone wants someone else to pay.
The minimum wage debate is starting to fill up column inches. Last year (then) President Duque offered up 10% even though inflation was lower and that has created a rod for the current government’s back. One imagines that year-end inflation will be the number, but the battle lines are likely to involve a much higher ask.
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That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.
My regards to all,