What Jumps Out: The Week Ahead, 8 November 2022

This is the end of the first of two consecutive long weekends in Colombia, so we will be playing catch up. Here’s what to look backwards and forwards to.

The press over the weekend was as quiet as ever on local events but on Saturday October CPI was released by DANE and once again it was both above estimates and moving in the wrong direction. The monthly number was 0.72% (consensus 0.64$) and the 12-month number 12.22% (12.17%) – a year ago that number was at 4.58%. However, whilst above expectations and at a 23 year high, there is likely little here that the Central Bank would not already be aware of, which is just as well as the gathering this month is penciled in as a non-decision meeting. Food continues to be a concern. In October it rose 1.21% which brings the 12 month inflation number to an eye watering 27.02%.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Even the tax reform was forgotten for the weekend, setting aside the usual vitriol of social media, but it is fully expected to be rubber stamped this week having made its way through both Congress and the Senate. Never say never, let alone in Colombia but it looks like we now have the final version.

The next taxi off the rank will be the minimum wage discussions – negotiators for both sides will have noted the CPI number just published.

We still await details on the ‘climate emergency’ declared last week by President Petro – how much and where it will come from – whilst some parts of the country had some relief, many didn’t, and the coastal city of Cartagena resembled Venice. The President is away at the COP27 climate change summit and it remains to see if he will make an announcement from there, or on his return.

Consumer Confidence for October will be released today by Fedesarrollo, the expectation is for a deterioration from -11.5% to -16%.

The main macro data is on Friday and is the latest from the Real Sector from September – again a slight deterioration in both Manufacturing Production (from 9.1% to 7.9%) and Retail Sales (8.1% to 7%) is expected – that said August saw surprises to the upside in both.

Please find below the link to the video (LinkedIn) – complete with rain and thunder !

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rupert-stebbings-927b6316a_colombia-activity-6995710874258669568-yZ3j?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

________________________________________

That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops