I have said it before, but at the outset of this week, there isn’t a lot on the horizon.
Now let’s watch that theory disappear out of a 20th floor window!
On the macro side, things are very calm. There are some construction cost numbers due on Friday from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) as well as the latest Bloomberg opinion survey. But the needle won’t move much. We also will get Fedesarrollo‘s retail and industrial confidence data for June, and that will be interesting after another much-better-than-expected reading for consumer confidence.
Congress is back (collective groan), and the word “reform” is set to dominate the agenda between now and the arrival of Father Christmas. Pensions, labor, and health were already headline grabbers, and we can now add education, mining, agrarian, and several more to the list.
Will this impact the peso, which closed last week below 4,000 to the US dollar? Personally, I doubt it.
First, because the reforms are likely to end up more watery than your average US beer. And, secondly, because the economy is ticking along nicely and 4,000-4,200 looks a comfortable level. Finally, much of the impulse is coming from favorable US inflation data.
For me, along with many others from the chilly Islands of the UK, improved weather was a benefit of moving to Colombia. But even though El Niño is still two months away, things are starting to get a little toasty. We are not alone in the world, but unlike most of Europe, the resources to combat a long-term drought are simply not there.
Finally, for those who like their news a little more salty/edgy, ex-paramilitary leader Salvatore Mancuso, who spent a decade in a US prison for his crimes, has reportedly been asked by Petro to act as a coordinator for the peace process.
If true this might prove uncomfortable for some.
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