Low Climactic Risk Anticipated for Colombia This Summer

The Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA), through the Information System for Agricultural Risk Management (Sigra), presented the Agroclimatic Bulletin for May 2025, with territorial and crop estimates against the projected climate behavior. Based on IDEAM (Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies)  predictions, it was identified that 0.7% of the agricultural frontier in Colombia, that is, about 300,000 hectares, is at specific risk, mainly low, due to excess rainfall in different regions of the country for the period between May and October.

“Although the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is in a neutral phase and does not directly influence current weather conditions, the bulletin warns that there is still a high probability of rainfall above historical averages in several departments, with the potential for extreme events that could seriously impact agricultural production systems and rural infrastructure,” said Alfonso Triana.  A specialized professional of the UPRA.

Likewise, Cesar Cortés, UPRA expert, explained: “The UPRA analysis reveals that this risk would especially affect crops of banana, cocoa, coffee, fruit trees, vegetables, roots and tubers, with the possibility of anoxia in soils, spread of diseases and logistical difficulties for marketing, mainly in the Andean, Pacific, Caribbean regions and areas of the Orinoquia and Amazon.”

The departments with the highest concentration of vulnerable hectares are Antioquia, Cundinamarca, Cauca, Boyacá, Tolima, and Nariño, which reinforces the need to take measures with a differential and territorial approach.

The report also provides a detailed overview by region and municipality. “In the Andean region alone, around 340,000 ha were identified at low risk and about 1,500 ha at medium risk, distributed in 41 municipalities. In the Caribbean, more than 85,000 ha are at low risk and 624 ha at medium risk, while in the Pacific, low risk affects about 195,000 ha. In the Amazon and Orinoquía, although the area at risk is smaller, the vulnerability of rural infrastructure is a concern,” said Alexander Rodríguez Romero, UPRA’s technical director of efficient land use and land adaptation.

The bulletin includes an analysis by crop group that shows that, although the cultivated area at medium risk represents only 0.05% of the national total (2,440 ha of 4.7 million), the impact can be severe depending on the type of production:

• Fruit trees: 1,063 ha at risk (43.6% of the total at risk).
• Traditional tropical crops (cocoa, coffee, sugarcane): 891 ha.
• Oilseeds: 182 ha.
• Vegetables: 64 ha with a high proportion affected (0.09% of the total cultivated group).
• Cereals (maize and rice): 99 ha.
• Roots and tubers (potato, cassava, yams): 108 ha.
• Legumes and aromatics: 33 ha in total.

For her part, Dora Inés Rey Martínez, acting director of UPRA, concluded: “Faced with this panorama, UPRA reiterates the need for informed and preventive agroclimatic planning. Producers are recommended to adopt water management, drainage, pest monitoring, and planting staggering practices. Likewise, a call is made to the territorial authorities to strengthen agroclimatic technical assistance and support the most exposed territories with infrastructure and differential actions.”

Key figures:

• 0.7% of the agricultural frontier in Colombia, that is, about 300,000 hectares, is at specific risk, mainly low, due to excess rainfall in different regions of the country for the period between May and October.
• 2,440 hectares under cultivation are estimated at medium risk, especially fruit trees (43.6% of the total).
• Andean and Pacific regions, the most exposed by medium and low risk.

Walking in the rain. Photo credit: wal_172619 from Pixabay.