Excess Rains Threaten Colombian Agriculture Production

The return to ENSO-neutral conditions (El Niño Southern Oscillation) in the Pacific Ocean will bring with it a climate scenario that, although predictable in seasonal terms, represents significant challenges for the country’s agricultural production. This is what the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA) warns in its April Agroclimatic Bulletin, which analyzes climate projections for the period April-June 2025.

According to analysis based on IDEAM data (Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies), in the coming months, rainfall in the Andean, Caribbean, and Orinoquia regions is likely to be between normal values and up to 40% above historical averages. This increase, although natural in the rainy season, translates into a latent risk of extreme events that could affect both agricultural production and rural infrastructure,” explained Eliecer Díaz Almanza, an expert from the UPRA.

Headline image: Cacao fruits, when processed correcty, render chocolate.

The impact is expected to be especially relevant on crops sensitive to excess water, such as bananas and plantains, cacao, avocado, vegetables, and potatoes. In addition, high humidity conditions could lead to the proliferation of pests and diseases, affecting animal and plant health.

The acting director of the UPRA, Dora Inés Rey, highlighted the importance of consulting the Agroclimatic Bulletin to plan and, thus, reduce the impact of agroclimatic risks: “Having this information has been fundamental for decision-making. It allows farmers, producers, and authorities, both regional and national, to anticipate, prioritize actions in crops, adapt infrastructures, and protect production systems that are at risk.”

Special attention to the ACFEC

The bulletin highlights that productive areas under Ethnic and Community Family Peasant Agriculture (ACFEC) schemes are especially vulnerable. It is estimated that, in departments such as Antioquia, Cundinamarca, Boyacá, Nariño, Cauca, and Valle del Cauca, agroclimatic conditions increase the risk for small producers and production systems located in alluvial soils or with a high water table.

In regions such as the Caribbean, Pacific, and Andean, a medium and low risk of excess moisture is projected in agricultural and livestock areas in specific areas. The potential impact also extends to ACFEC’s production systems, where significant effects are expected in key departments such as Antioquia, Cundinamarca and Valle del Cauca.

The situation is similar in the Orinoquia and the Amazon, although with relatively minor impacts. In these areas, the risk of damage to rural roads and productive infrastructure stands out. “We call on regional and local authorities to make use of this information to anticipate and foresee risks, strengthen agro-ecological practices, improve drainage systems, plan planting in a staggered manner, and reinforce rural infrastructures,” explained Alexander Rodríguez Romero, technical director of Efficient Land Use and Land Adaptation at UPRA.

Likewise, we invite local authorities to redouble agroclimatic technical assistance with a differential approach for these population groups, vital in food production and food security in the country.

“The planning of agricultural activities must be guided by the climate predictions of Ideam, the UPRA Agroclimatic Bulletin, and the recommendations of the National Agroclimatic Technical Table, key tools for timely decision-making that contribute to mitigating risks and guaranteeing the sustainability of the sector,” concluded César Cortés, UPRA expert.

Key figures from the April 2025 Agroclimatic Bulletin

• 2.3 million hectares within the national agricultural frontier are at risk of excess water.
• In ACFEC areas, more than 852 thousand hectares are identified with low risk and about 86 thousand hectares with medium risk, especially in the Andean and Pacific regions.
• Andean Region: medium risk at 97,000 ha and low at 181,000 ha, with possible impact on crops such as Musaceae, fruit trees, and vegetables.
• Caribbean region: low risk in more than 179,000 ha, with critical points in agricultural areas such as Chiriguaná (Cesar).
• Pacific Region: medium risk in 109,000 ha and low in 164,000 ha; affects productive systems and mountain areas vulnerable to landslides.
• Orinoquia and Amazon regions: lower risk, but with potential effects on rural infrastructure and roads.

Photo credit: UPRA.