In politics the highlight of the week was Gustavo Petro’s 20-minute speech to the UN. The core theme was sustainability, however other matters such as poverty and narcotics also found their way into the discourse. Overall, the speech was well received, both in subject matter and the quality of the delivery. The emphasis was not as much about painting pictures of the future but instead the current situation and of how the world can help not just Colombia, but wider Latin America.
Finance Minister Ocampo has come to an agreement on both dividends and capital gains tax within the tax reform. There is a compromise, and the taxable levels are more generous. It isn’t as simple as some might wish, however if you are getting taxed less than you expected, then perhaps you will be prepared to take a few more minutes filling out the forms.
On the macro front we saw economic activity for July fall to 6.4% from 8.5% in June – the month over month decline of 0.3% was the really important number here as it points to a gradual slowdown in the economy.
Fedesarrollo was busy this week.
We had the financial survey for September and the economy continues to heat, with analysts increasing their estimates in all main year end indicators such as GDP (7.4%), Inflation (11.18%) & interest rates (11%).
Also, they reported small declines in both retail (26.9%) & industrial (7.1%) confidence but those were in line with expectations.
Gasoline prices will rise by 200 Pesos in each of the next three months; depending on where you live that is around 2% per month. This will impact inflation somewhat, however the more meaty increases can be expected next year when headline inflation begins to dwindle somewhat.
The COLCAP has had a better-than-expected week. This is due to the tender announced for Grupo Nutresa at a whopping $15 (COP66,000), over 70% above any analysts’ target price and has pushed up other stocks in the group in anticipation of more hostile tenders.
I haven’t made any real mention of the oil price and its negative impact on the Peso, as well as the global flight to quality – in the end there is little that anyone in Colombia can do about it.
That is your lot for this week – have a very good weekend.
See link to video summary below (LinkedIn) :
That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.
My regards to all,