What Jumps Out: Peso Strengthens as Colombia Keeps Rambling On

This has been one of those odd weeks in Colombia where nothing in particular “Jumped Out,” but the country was subject to a massive cyberattack, the consequences of which are still being calculated.

The MSCI Inc. COLCAP has continued to take up column inches with much procrastination and naval gazing, but in reality, no one seems to have a clue what to do — or worse still, no one seems to have no confidence in those who administer the capital markets: Superfinanciera Colombia, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, Asobolsa. As for the market, well, there’s nothing to report — again.

The Colombian peso had another decent week as it moved towards 3,900 to the US dollar, and there appears little to suggest that events, foreign or domestic, will move it back towards the 4,200 level. Brent oil is underpinning this strength as it trades at recent highs.

All the more surprise then to see the headline “Cocaine to Overtake Oil as Top Export.” This was based on a report from Bloomberg and, setting aside the vagaries of the report, Thursday saw the IV Summit in Medellín on drugs, with fentanyl being a key subject, attended by President Gustavo Petro. One feels that, finally, after decades of denial by incumbent governments, we are finally going to see a pivot and a more open dialogue in terms of how to attack the drug business and to protect those consuming.

Reforms were in the news again, but there was little sparring. The education reform was presented and the initial feedback appears to positive.

The main macro data of the week from the DANE Colombia will be released later today in the shape of the Real Sector data for July (with no great optimism), while ready mixed concrete (RMC) production for July stood at 557.900 m3 — down 3.1% from 12 months ago

Fedesarrollo released the Consumer Confidence survey for August, and it was somewhat mixed. The headline number was down, from -17.4% to -18.8%. Barranquilla (-9.9%) remains the most confident city. And by economic group, the high income category (-45.5%) were the most pessimistic whilst medium income (-13.8%) gapped upwards to replace low income (-21%) as the most optimistic.

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