What Jumps Out – May Consumer Confidence

Yesterday Fedesarrollo published the latest Consumer Confidence data for May, and it was slightly better than expected.

The reading of -14.7% was better than the -16.1% consensus and above the April number of -17.5%. In context we haven’t hadn’t had a positive reading since March 2019 (+1.2%) – but the confidence reading has seen a lot of volatility over the past few years, since the -41.3% number in March 2020.

In terms of consumer expectations, we saw an improvement from -7.4% to -3.5%.

All three sub-sectors saw improvements:

• Do you think that within a year your household will economically do better, worse or the same as now?
• Do you think that within the next twelve months we will have good or bad economic times?
• Do you think that the country’s economic conditions will be better or worse within a year than they currently are?

Moving onto economic conditions there was a modest improvement from -32.6% to -31.5%, but versus 12 months ago (-61.7%) there is clearly a sizable move upwards. One noteworthy improvement (-23.4% to -17.9%) was in the area ‘Do you think that your household is economically doing better or worse than a year ago?’

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Moving onto propensity to buy we saw improvements in all sectors, with housing the standout move.

• Housing -22.6% (from -33%).
• Durable Goods -41.7% (from -45.1%).
• Vehicles -59.3% (from -63.3%).

Next stop Retail and Industrial Confidence on June 23.

Link to Full Report : https://www.fedesarrollo.org.co/encuestas/consumidor-eoc

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That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops

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