What Jumps Out: Institutions Now the Bad Guys

It’s impossible to escape the main news of the week, which was the conviction of ex-President Álvaro Uribe for witness tampering. Sentencing has yet to be carried out, and no doubt there will be an appeal — this is Colombia after all, which has a justice system that makes little sense to anyone.

Whilst many in Colombia think witness tampering is the least of Uribe’s offenses and liken it to Al Capone’s conviction for tax evasion, it is nonetheless a surprise, and a strong statement by the courts.

Conversely, we now have the extreme right crying foul about the rulings — this after weeks and months of bleating about the protection of the great institutions of Colombia, as Gustavo Petro criticized them on several fronts. The worm has apparently turned, and now social media is full of demands for freedom for Uribe and criticizing the legal system. Whilst predictably, the extreme Republicans in the US are already making noise, this is no ‘Free Nelson Mandela’ situation.

The issue again is polarization. We are still getting past the acidic attitudes surrounding the shooting of Miguel Uribe, and this won’t help as we move towards the 2026 elections.

Moving past politics, the Banco de la República — Colombia made what appears to be a perplexing decision to leave overnight rates unchanged at 9.25%. It was by a 4-3 majority, two voted for a 50bps cut. The reasons given were jumbled and included inflation concerns, even though there was a lower-than-expected reading just a few weeks ago.

Some analysts are suggesting it is due to the 2026 budget announced by Ministerio de Hacienda of $135 billion USD, an increase of 6.5% although $6.3 billion USD will be subject to a successful tax reform that has yet to be presented. This is perhaps bleeding into the central bank’s deficit concerns.

The Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística — DANE Colombia reported that unemployment continues to drop. June saw a national level of 8.6% (the lowest June reading in a decade) and the urban number at 8.3% (10.2%) — the lowest on record for June. Jobs added over the past 12 months totalled 800,000. Positive stuff, and one of the reasons why financial poverty is at record low levels.

Finally, after all the bluster and threats, tariffs with the US were set at 10% — but let’s see how long before Donald Trump’s next tantrum.

Have a spectacular Friday.

Regards Roops.

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Former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe. Photo credit: Álvaro Uribe website.