What Jumps Out : Inflation, Venezuela & Anniversary

When a week is spliced into two by an independence related holiday there is usually little to report but on this occasion there are a couple of themes worth commenting on.

July inflation from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia registered 0.20% (2023 0.50%) bringing us to a YTD reading of 4.32% (6.68%) and a 12 month figure of 6.86% (11.78%). That is pleasingly below the 6.96% predicted and with the exception of housing there was precious little to worry about. That sector rose 0.45% MoM and contributed 70% of the inflation in the system. Food rose 0.21% and added in most of the balance. Amongst the other sectors surveyed there was little to make mention of but Restaurants/Hotels & Cigarettes and Alcohol also rose 0.33% & 0.22% respectively which means Colombians are still insistent on enjoying themselves.

I would normally speculate as to what the Banco de la República – Colombia might do at their next meeting but it’s not worth it. In August they don’t have a ‘decision’ meeting and by the time they meet in September we will have had the August inflation number. Remember if they are to get to Fedesarrollo‘s 8.50% analyst estimate they will need to cut by 75 bps average at the three remaining ‘decision’ meetings of 2024. Good luck with that.

Venezuela is still on many people’s minds but there has been little to report this week, mainly because Maduro has been cutting communications links. Yesterday he shut down ‘X’ due to Elon Musk’s comments. Colombia and many other countries have asked for human rights to be respected but that will likely fall on deaf ears – it’s an internal sovereign matter in the eyes of international law and there seems little to be done. My only surprise is to find people seemingly shocked at Maduro’s actions. He isn’t fighting for his presidency, he is in all likelihood fighting for his life.

Wednesday’s holiday marked the two year anniversary of Gustavo Petro in office and was marked according to the defense minister, during his periodical update on criminality in Colombia, by intelligence pointing to an assassination plot against Gustavo Petro. No further details were offered as to when or where this was planned but nonetheless concerning.

That is it for this morning however, you do not escape that lightly. Please keep a look out for ‘The Petro Prism’ my very brief look at the first two years of the current presidency.

Have a great end to the week

Roops

Above photo: The Puente de Boyacá or Boyacá Bridge over the Teatinos River commemorates the “Battle of Boyacá,”a key event in Colombia’s independence from Spain (photo: Loren Moss)