facebook
linkedin
twitter
About Us
  • BFSI
  • Energy
  • Infocom
  • Mining
  • Venture
  • Industry
  • Travel
  • Civic
  • Food, Health, Ag
  • Real Estate
  • Responsibility
  • Economy
  • Law & Justice
  • Interview
  • Analysis

What Jumps Out : Fedesarrollo Survey – Heating Up

Posted On September 23, 2021
By : Rupert Stebbings
Comment: 0
Tag: buy on dips, colcap, colombia, fedesarrollo, financial opinion survey, growth, inflation, interest rates, investment drivers, peso, stock market, Valores Bancolombia

The latest Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey widely reflects what can already be seen on the ground in Colombia – the economy is starting to heat up.

The full reports can be viewed here and here, however here is synopsis of the main points to digest:

Growth: Amidst an environment where we see both analysts and overseas agents increasing their growth recommendations for both 2021 & 2022. A month ago the average 2021 estimate stood at 7.2%, which has now risen to 7.8%, with a top end of 8.2%. It is worth noting that this week one local research house (Valores Bancolombia) issued a ‘top end’ of 9.6% which raised a few eyebrows. That said, the data continues to point towards a very healthy rebound.

Inflation: A mixed bag here. We already stand at 4.4% and analysts are expecting a further increase to 4.46% next time around and to 4.74% by year end, up from 4.2%. However, the expectation is that during 2022 this will decline once again to 3.56%, back within the government’s long term 2-4% target.

Interest Rates: The 18 months or so at 1.75% appear to be coming to end and according to 88.9% of analysts that will be at the next meeting when rates will rise to 2%. Furthermore 52.8% are looking for a year end rate of 2.5% and 30.6% are anticipating 2.25%. By the end of 2022 the consensus number is 3.5%.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Peso: As ever a tough read; the main reason being the ongoing struggle between better oil prices which should cause valuation and outflows related to the loss of investment grade and forthcoming elections. The current estimate for YE21 is 3745 (from the current 8300) with a further move to 3640 by YE22. The anticipation is that both oil prices and production will be higher in 2022 and once the elections are out of the way there will be room for revaluation.

Investment Drivers: At this current juncture investment managers are relatively agnostic in terms of influences. Monetary Policy (25%), Fiscal Policy (19.4%) & Economic Growth (19.4%) are seen as the main drivers. External events (11.1%) are not seen as a key driver.

COLCAP: Whilst there has been tempering of how far the COLCAP will rise over the next three months, 91% believe it will rise versus 83.8% in August. In terms of sectors Finance (71.4%) & Holding Co. (71.4%) are the top picks with a bounce back in oil to 57.1% from 36.4% last month. If we bore down to top stocks the current choices are Ecopetrol (42.9%), PFBColo (33.3%) & Grupo Argos (33%).

Stock Market Confidence Index: As we see above there is a high level of confidence in the COLCAP – in September 96.97% were optimistic versus 94.57% a month ago and 7.2% higher than 12 months ago. There were also increases in both the Crash Confidence (71.43%) & Valuation Confidence (94.44%) indices. There was a drop in the Buy on Dips index to 53.85% which is slightly disconnected from the other readings around the COLCAP.

That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops

DON'T MISS OUT: The only English-language Colombia news that's strictly business, markets, & investment!
Join global executives & investors by subscribing to our FREE weekly updates
I agree to have my personal information transferred to MailChimp ( more information ) DISCLAIMER: Protección de Datos Personales Artículo 15 de la Constitución Política de Colombia, ley 1581 de 2012 y decreto 1377 de 2013.
We will never spam you or share your email address ¡Nunca Jamás!

Share the news!

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Print
  • WhatsApp
  • LinkedIn
  • Skype

Related

Share your thoughts:

comments

About the Author
Prior to becoming the BVC's (Colombia's stock exchange) International Account Manager, London native Rupert Stebbings spent 13 years opening the Colombian equity market to foreigners. All this after a spell "stateside" in NYC. Rupert's opinions are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.
  • google-share
Previous Story

What Jumps Out: Time To Look Forward

Next Story

What Jumps Out: Shoots Of All Colors

Related Posts

Grand Bahamas photo © Loren Moss
0

Bahamas Seeks Air Connectivity With Colombia

Posted On May 18, 2022
, By Loren Moss
Roberto Kriete, avianca's main shareholder and chairman of the Board of Directors.
0

Shareholders Of Viva, Avianca & Gol Announce The Creation Of Abra Group To Dominate South American Skies

Posted On May 11, 2022
, By Loren Moss
Colombia’s attorney general charged Russian national Sergein Vagin and six other people
0

Alleged Russian Spy Charged…With Running A Gambling Mafia

Posted On April 12, 2022
, By Loren Moss




Search

RECENT

POPULAR

COMMENTS

The World’s 50 Best Restaurants today reveals Leonor Espinosa of Leo, Bogotá, as the 2022 winner of The World’s Best Female Chef Award, sponsored by Nude Glass

Colombian Leonor Espinosa Named "World's Best Female Chef"

Posted On May 18, 2022
Grand Bahamas photo © Loren Moss

Bahamas Seeks Air Connectivity With Colombia

Posted On May 18, 2022
Roberto Kriete, avianca's main shareholder and chairman of the Board of Directors.

Shareholders Of Viva, Avianca & Gol Announce The Creation Of Abra Group To Dominate South American Skies

Posted On May 11, 2022
Colombia’s attorney general charged Russian national Sergein Vagin and six other people

Alleged Russian Spy Charged…With Running A Gambling Mafia

Posted On April 12, 2022

Viva Launches Nonstop Routes To Buenos Aires, Argentina From Medellín & Bogotá, Colombia

Posted On April 12, 2022

Romanian Cybercriminal Mihai Ionut Paunescu Captured In Colombia

Posted On June 29, 2021
Photo montage courtesy EPM

EPM’s Board of Directors Resign En Masse, Creating Crisis For Mayor Daniel Quintero

Posted On August 17, 2020

Court Blocks Colombia’s $370 Million USD Emergency Loan To Bankrupt Avianca Airlines

Posted On September 12, 2020

Deadly Riots & Protests Against Police Brutality Break Out Across Colombia

Posted On September 10, 2020

AVIANCA IS BANKRUPT

Posted On May 10, 2020

[…] damn what she said. She and...

Posted On April 4, 2022

[…] by short sellers seeking to...

Posted On March 22, 2022

[…] no longer travel freely...

Posted On March 8, 2022

[…] Duque’s administration will...

Posted On March 8, 2022

[…] See also: 13 Police Injured In...

Posted On March 3, 2022

Watch This!

Consider Advertising With Us

Click here to visit Expat Group's English site

Subscribe Free

don't forget to include "http://"
* = required field
Your Background / Function








unsubscribe from list

RECENT

POPULAR

COMMENTS

The World’s 50 Best Restaurants today reveals Leonor Espinosa of Leo, Bogotá, as the 2022 winner of The World’s Best Female Chef Award, sponsored by Nude Glass

Colombian Leonor Espinosa Named "World's Best Female Chef"

Posted On May 18, 2022
Grand Bahamas photo © Loren Moss

Bahamas Seeks Air Connectivity With Colombia

Posted On May 18, 2022
Roberto Kriete, avianca's main shareholder and chairman of the Board of Directors.

Shareholders Of Viva, Avianca & Gol Announce The Creation Of Abra Group To Dominate South American Skies

Posted On May 11, 2022

Romanian Cybercriminal Mihai Ionut Paunescu Captured In Colombia

Posted On June 29, 2021
Photo montage courtesy EPM

EPM’s Board of Directors Resign En Masse, Creating Crisis For Mayor Daniel Quintero

Posted On August 17, 2020

Deadly Riots & Protests Against Police Brutality Break Out Across Colombia

Posted On September 10, 2020

[…] damn what she said. She and...

Posted On April 4, 2022

[…] by short sellers seeking to...

Posted On March 22, 2022

[…] no longer travel freely...

Posted On March 8, 2022

Watch This!

Contact Us (Click the image):

Pages

  • About Us
  • Colombia Events, Conferences, Festivals and Important Dates
  • Contact Us
  • main
  • Media Partnerships
  • Privacy Policy
  • Search Results
  • Whatsapp test page
Copyright 2014-2020 Finance Colombia All Rights Reserved. We may earn commissions from qualifying purchases.
Posting....
WhatsApp us