What Jumps Out: Black Friday

At times what jumps out most, is the actual lack of anything jumping anywhere. Colombia is slipping slowly but surely into both Christmas and the subsequent pre-election phony war. There are of course matters to discuss but the lack of inertia or apparent willingness to move the country forward is almost tangible. It is Black Friday and Colombians are doing what they do best…..consuming!! This ties into the strong economy, consumer confidence and the recovery in domestic demand.

Many headlines are tied to the fiscal situation in one way or another.

The $16 trillion COP tax reform which is related to the 2026 Budget is in such danger of being sunk by opposition forces that a ‘Plan B’ is already being discussed in the dark corridors of power. I am no tax expert, but it does seem a little top heavy on unpopular measures that might get a Congress member voted out in March if they were to vote for it. Ministerio de Hacienda Avila is struggling on this one.

The tax collection data through October has been published by the DIAN and despite an 11.28% YoY increase to $249 trillion COP and a very healthy $20 trillion COP collection for the month, experts are anticipating that there will be a shortfall of up to $11 trillion COP versus the FY $305 trillion COP target.

The Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia revealed the latest Total Productivity number which rose 0.91% YoY – this is relevant for the country as it will be added to the FY25 CPI estimate of 5.51% to give us a baseline for the impending Minimum Wage discussions. In reality 6.42% won’t be a number even taken into consideration by anyone except the public sector – 10% would be a success & 12% a real possibility.

Fedesarrollo reported the latest Industrial (4.9%) & Retail (22.8%) Confidence data for October. Whilst both are healthy numbers there was a decline on the Industrial side MoM whilst Retail rose.

White Noise Section

The CNE (Electoral Council) is possibly going to sanction Gustavo Petro for exceeding spending limits in 2022. It’s taken three years to discover he probably did what every other candidate ever did. File that alongside candidates photographed with drug lords and the section that says incumbent officials shouldn’t comment on politics.

The US Government (or some low lying official) is stating once again that the strained relations between the two countries could harm trade – a week after 70% of tariffs were removed on Colombian goods. The world is ever more bored and less intimidated by TACO man and almost ironically, if he has finally found a foe small enough to beat in the shape of Venezuela, the number one benefactor would be Colombia.

Have a wonderful day and extended Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving turkey (photo © Loren Moss)