New Fallen Angels Outpace Rising Stars for Latin American Corporates

Latin American corporate issuers rated by Fitch Ratings included more new fallen angels than rising stars during 2Q24, despite the ratio of downgrades-to-upgrades improving for the second consecutive quarter. Downgrades exceeded upgrades 2-to-1 compared to 4.3x during 1Q24 and 7.1x during 4Q23.

Related Content: Latin American Corporates Quarterly Rating Trends Dashboard – July 2024

Downgrades and upgrades occurred during 2Q24 in nearly every Latin American country and corporate subsectors. There were four fallen angels and one rising star during 2Q24, compared to no cross-over credits during 1Q24 and three fallen angels and no rising stars during 4Q23.

Most of the downgrades to speculative-grade from investment-grade were due to the downgrade of Panama’s sovereign rating to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-’. The deteriorating operating environment strengthened the linkage between company credit profiles and the sovereign rating. Either full or partial corporate government ownership of the company or its systemic receipt of government subsidies and financial support was an additional consideration. The rising star was a Mexican company in the building & construction sector.

As of June 2024, three publicly rated issuers in our Latin American corporates portfolio were rated ‘BBB-’/Negative and at risk of falling into high-yield territory. Only one was rated ‘BB+’/Positive, indicating it could be upgraded to investment grade.

For more information on corporate issuers on the edge of different rating categories see Global Corporate Credits on the Cusp Monitor – June 2024.