Fiscal Rule Discussion Comes to the Forefront in Colombia as GDP Grows by 0.7% in the First Quarter

It was a week of economic data reports and fiscal rule dicussion in Colombia.

Early in the week, focus was on Colombia’s first quarter GDP number (0.7%), which was above estimates. Industry (-5.9%) and commerce (-0.8%) continue to struggle, but the public sector (5.3%) and agriculture (5.5%) reported positive numbers. Construction (0.7%) finally rose, but the sector needs to offer much more in order to be the economic driver it should be.

The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) also reported the latest real sector data for March, with manufacturing production (11.1%) and retail sales (5.6%) falling significantly once again. These compute with both the GDP and industrial activity data, not to mention Banco de la República’s continued stubbornness on reducing rates at the appropriate rhythm. The government has already stated that if the central bank doesn’t breathe life into the economy, it will via raising the debt ceiling — or putting some flex into the fiscal rule.

However, reacting to this, Fitch Ratings stated that tampering with the fiscal rule would only hinder the nation’s hopeful return to investment grade. They added that the same fiscal deficit was part of the reason that the administration of former President Iván Duque lost the investment grade in the first place.

Colombian David Velez has created a regional phenomena with Nubank, albeit he had to go to Brazil to do it, however his homeland has proven to be less welcoming. This week Velez spoke of the complicated regulatory environment in Colombian and the complications surrounding the banks plans to expand further.

Perhaps that is why he started in Brazil, a country that is light years ahead when it comes to its financial architecture and authorities that are far more enlightened when it comes to providing a more and efficient environment for clients.

Superfinanciera of Colombia is jurassic by comparison —  fearful of change — a fact borne out by its intransigence as Bolsa de Valores Colombian stock exchange has slowly died in front of our eyes, with the only recourse being to salvage itself via nuam exchange. Although, no doubt, Superfinanciera will have a say along the way.

As for the banking sector, it has been a high-cost oligopoly — for decades dominated by Bancolombia, BBVA, Grupo Aval and Banco Davivienda — with Asobancaria seemingly happy with the current situation. There is much chatter about open finance, etc. — but it will only happen on the terms of the current dominant players.

Colombia needs 10 neobanks, as well as a raft of other financial institutions, to both lower fees and improve client attention.

There is much chatter about startups and fintechs.

But most lack the size or expertise to compete with the big boys — and many will sink without trace.

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