Ecopetrol Finalizes 2026 Investment Plan, Targets COP 22-27 Trillion Amid Transition Push

Ecopetrol S.A. (BVC: ECOPETROL; NYSE: EC), Colombia’s state controlled petroleum company, has approved its 2026 Annual Investment Plan, allocating between $22 and $27 trillion Colombian Pesos (approximately $5.43 billion to $6.67 billion USD, based on the projected  $4,050 COP to $1 USD exchange rate) to maintain current operational output while advancing its energy transition strategy.

The allocation follows capital discipline criteria and maintains investment levels comparable to projected 2025 year-end figures. Approximately 70% of the total budget ($17.2 trillion COP) is designated for core hydrocarbons operations, including production, refining, and transportation. The remaining 30% ($7.1 trillion COP) is slated for energy transition initiatives, power transmission, and corporate investments.

The 2026 financial model is built on an estimated Brent crude price of $60 USD per barrel and an average annual exchange rate near COP 4,050:1 USD. Under these assumptions, the Ecopetrol Group projects an approximate EBITDA margin of 40%, in line with 2025 levels. Transfers to the Colombian government are estimated at approximately $28 trillion COP. To support these financial targets and maintain debt metrics, the group plans to implement a portfolio rotation program.

A profitability and efficiency program is expected to contribute approximately $5.7 trillion COP, impacting EBITDA, investments, and working capital. This program is structured to support performance in total refining costs and transported barrel costs, while sustaining lifting costs below $12 USD per barrel.

Approximately $1.7 trillion COP is allocated to the company’s “SosTECnibility” strategy, focusing on climate change, sustainable territories, materials and waste management, and occupational health.

Hydrocarbons and Midstream Operations

Investment in exploration and production totals $14 trillion COP, constituting the largest single allocation. This is split with 89% dedicated to crude oil and 11% to natural gas, focused on achieving organic production levels of 730–740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED). Production is anticipated to consist of 80% crude, 15% gas, and 5% white products, utilizing recovery technologies to optimize resources. The strategy involves increasing crude oil output in Colombia to offset natural gas field declines.

The Ecopetrol Group plans to drill between 380 and 430 development wells, with 95% located in Colombia and 5% in the US. The exploration program includes 8 to 10 exploratory wells in Colombia, primarily in offshore, Meta, and Putumayo areas. Gas investments are estimated at $1.5 trillion COP, mainly targeting the Llanos Foothills and offshore areas to develop Caribbean gas, contributing an estimated 105–110,000 BOED.

Transport investments total about $1.5 trillion COP, representing 6% of the budget. The funding is primarily for integrity and reliability projects managed by Cenit, Ocensa, Oleoducto de Colombia S.A.), and Oleoducto del Llano S.A. Transported volumes are targeted between 1,110,000 and 1,120,000 barrels per day.

Refining investments are set at close to $1.7 trillion COP (7% of the budget), targeting reliability, availability, and sustainability at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries, aiming to reduce product imports and improve fuel quality. Combined refinery throughput is forecast between 410,000 and 420,000 barrels per day.

Energy Transition and Transmission Segment Growth

Interconexión Eléctrica S.A. E.S.P. (ISA) (BVC: ISA), an Ecopetrol subsidiary, is allocated between $6.2 and $6.8 trillion COP in 2026, comprising roughly 26% of the group’s annual budget, with approximately 80% dedicated to its electric transmission business.

For the core energy transition efforts, approximately $0.9 trillion COP (3% of the plan) is earmarked for non-conventional renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. This investment seeks to add approximately 750 MW of clean energy generation capacity from projects in operation, construction, and development.

Renewable Energy Acquisition Moves Ecopetrol Closer to 900 MW Target

In a separate announcement, Ecopetrol confirmed the successful conclusion of negotiations on November 28, 2025, with Grenergy Renovables S.A. (BME: GRE), a Spanish renewable energy company. The negotiations concern the potential acquisition by Ecopetrol of seven solar photovoltaic project companies in Colombia, located across the departments of Córdoba (3), Cesar (2), Magdalena (1), and Sucre (1).

Each of the seven companies owns the assets, licenses, agreements, and permits for a solar project with an estimated renewable energy generation capacity of up to ~12.6 MWp. The completion of this acquisition is contingent upon certain conditions precedent and legal requirements.

Upon closing, the transaction would contribute to Ecopetrol’s decarbonization and energy transition goals by adding installed capacity toward its internal target of 900 MW of self-generated renewable energy. These projects are intended to support low-emission energy generation under competitive conditions for the Ecopetrol Group’s self-consumption, reducing the company’s reliance on bilateral energy contracts and mitigating exposure to spot market energy purchases.

Corporate Governance Changes

Ecopetrol also reported changes to its corporate leadership. During a meeting held on November 27, 2025, the board of directors elected Ángela María Robledo Gómez as Chairwoman and Álvaro Torres Macías as Vice Chairman of the Board. Both individuals were elected to the Ecopetrol Board of Directors in a slate that was “proposed by the government” (President Gustavo Petro’s administration).

Additionally, the company reported the resignation of Independent Director Guillermo García Realpe, citing personal reasons. His resignation is effective as of December 12, 2025. Ecopetrol acknowledged his service to the company during his tenure.

Ecopetrol operates as a key integrated energy firm on the American continent. In Colombia, it is responsible for more than 60% of hydrocarbon production and manages the majority of the nation’s transportation, logistics, and hydrocarbon refining systems. Through its 51.4% stake in ISA, the company holds positions in energy transmission across Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia, as well as road concessions in Chile, and participates in real-time systems management through XM and the Barranquilla – Cartagena coastal highway concession. Internationally, Ecopetrol has drilling and exploration operations in oilfields across the US (Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico.