The “line in the sand” fiscal rule has now gone but due to the measures taken there is the hope that the deficit will drop from the anticipated 8.6% in 2021 to 2.7% in 2026.
This is a country with problems, unquestionably, poverty has risen, there is discontent with the Government's actions in several respects and the current account situation speaks for itself. BUT, this is a country that for decades has built itself against a backdrop of problems...
We have seen a slight rebound over recent sessions as the peso recovers from the perfect storm of a lost investment grade, a wobbly oil price and forthcoming elections. Another major factor for the peso will be exports and there was good news on that front for July.
On a more optimistic note, the MSCI COLCAP finally appears to be gaining a foothold in 2021, we are no longer bottom of the pile and for foreigners in particular, there are bargains to be had.
Here in Colombia the market has been crying out for new blood, we have seen multiple names such as Tablemac delist, others including Éxito who are no longer part of the MSCI COLCAP and recently Avianca which has been put on the naughty step due to Chapter 11.