What Jumps Out: More Tragedy

The word ‘Bello’ translates to handsome or beautiful in English, but there was nothing pretty about events in the city of Bello, close to Medellín, as once again an enormous landslide devoured infrastructure and human lives in equal measure. It is only a few months since we were discussing a similar situation in Sabaneta at the opposite end of the valley. The message to all of those politicians expressing sympathy and calling for support is the same – take a good look around you at who is allowing the building permits and the stripping back of nature, directly or indirectly many of these deaths are coming from the self-same corruption that has been crippling Colombia for decades.

Elsewhere, a ‘relatively’ quiet week – likely because it is sandwiched between two long weekends – with the politicians somewhat becalmed.

The labor reform was signed into law by Gustavo Petro. Make no mistake, he has played this extremely well. It was dead in the dust a few weeks ago, and whilst not 100% of what he wanted, he has moved the needle for millions of workers. What will now happen with the decree, referendum & national assembly, remains to be seen, but one questions whether there is much appetite.

On the pension reform, which was sent back to congress, we await developments.

The ratings agencies were busy this week. S&P Global lowered Colombia’s rating from BB+ to BB (outlook negative) whilst Moody’s ratings lowered from Baa2 to Baa3 (outlook stable). In short – the long term fiscal situation.

Fedesarrollo reported industrial & retail confidence data for May, and they were interesting. Retail sales are booming, but retail confidence dropped marginally to +21% whilst industrial confidence rose from -0.3% to +6.1%, despite struggling manufacturing production numbers.

The Banco de la República – Colombia is expected by almost everyone to leave overnight rates at 9.25% today.

The Peso ($4042) has dropped to levels not seen in 2025; there are several factors at play. The US under Donald Trump is not a place to safeguard your money, the Colombian political temperature is subsiding, and the local economy continues in rude health. That final factor may not be convenient for the mainstream press, but the economy is growing well, unemployment is at record lows, and inflation is easing. The deficit remains a real concern, and it remains to be seen whether Ministerio Avila can both pass a robust tax reform and rein in government spending somewhat.

About it for this Friday. Have a great day.

Roops.

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Colombian Peso. Photo credit: Jared Wade.