What Jumps Out: Pause?

The Banco de la República – Colombia will sit down, and the committee is behind the curve in terms of lowering rates when compared to the collapse in inflation, we can expect some caution. The consensus is a 25bps cut to 9.25% however could we see no move?

The rationale or excuse is the uncertain fiscal situation as the authorities struggle to balance the books, and also this week’s developments with the USA. It’s a tough call as the fiscal situation has been a constant for the past year and the fact that the Peso closed Thursday at $4170, its strongest in several months, suggests fears related to Donald Trump, shared by half the world, are overstated.

For the Central Bank, this will be the last meeting before two governors are replaced by Petro’s picks – the February meeting will arguably draw a lot of attention for that reason.

Petro’s perceived belligerence at the beginning of the week when dealing with the treatment of returning Colombian migrants, is now being viewed as a reasonable humanitarian request. It will hopefully embolden other Latam countries to demand the same basic respect from the USA.

November imports from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia rose 13.7% to $5.8bn, more evidence of a recovering economy however with exports still struggling somewhat, the YTD deficit now stands at $9.9bn, higher even than the $9.1bn for the first 11 months of 2023. Exports at least are being helped by coffee, with new record high prices this week.

Catatumbo remains a mess on the Venezuelan border and the government is still struggling to wrangle control back from the ELN and FARC, who are fighting over this lucrative cocaine route.

About it for this Friday, have a wonderful day.

Regards.

Roops.

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Headline Image: Coffee beans from Don Elias finca in Salento, Colombia. (Credit: Jared Wade)