Colombia’s Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (Financial Superintendency of Colombia, or SFC) has published for public comment a draft external circular that would give banks, insurers and other supervised financial institutions temporary instructions to assist consumers affected by the magnitude 7.4 earthquake that struck the country on August 10, 2026. The comment period, open since August 12, closes at 11:59 p.m. on August 14, 2026, giving industry and the public a two-business-day window to respond, according to the draft text and the SFC’s own consultation record.

The earthquake, with an epicenter in the municipality of San José del Palmar in Chocó department and a depth of 96 kilometers, triggered 991 additional seismic events within a 900-kilometer radius, according to figures cited in the SFC’s draft circular, including 115 in the magnitude 5.0-to-5.9 range, 18 between magnitude 6.0 and 6.9, and three exceeding magnitude 7.0. The national government declared a state of national disaster the following day, August 11, through Decree 1171, covering Antioquia, Caldas, Cauca, Chocó, Quindío, Cundinamarca, Risaralda, Huila, Valle del Cauca, Tolima, Putumayo, Norte de Santander and other affected territories for an initial 12 months, renewable for an equal term, as Finance Colombia reported at the time.

Death toll still climbing

As of the evening of August 12, Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella cited a balance from the Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, or UNGRD) showing a toll that had continued to climb since the quake struck two days earlier.

“We have 25,872 affected families, 53,816 people, sadly 265 dead, 3,494 injured, and the number of missing has risen alarmingly to 496.”— Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella, citing the UNGRD balance, August 12, 2026

The same balance reported 11,347 homes destroyed and 53,526 damaged, 140 buildings collapsed, and 1,819 schools and 631 community centers affected. Earlier counts from the same day had put the toll lower, underscoring that the figures remained provisional; international search-and-rescue teams, coordinated by UNGRD, were still arriving as of August 13 to assist Colombian personnel, and officials have cautioned the toll is likely to keep rising.

Colombia’s disaster management law, Ley 1523 de 2012, activates a special legal regime once a national disaster is declared, including articles 86 and 87, which allow affected debtors to seek refinancing of existing obligations. The SFC’s draft circular says it is exercising its instruction authority under the Estatuto Orgánico del Sistema Financiero (Organic Statute of the Financial System) and Decree 2555 of 2010 to translate that legal framework into binding instructions for the institutions it supervises.

Refinancing terms for affected borrowers

Under the draft measures, lending institutions would be required to adopt refinancing programs for borrowers affected by the disaster, subject to conditions drawn directly from the 2012 law: refinancing would apply only to obligations contracted before August 10, 2026, with payments due on or after that date; the new loan term could not exceed double the remaining term or 20 years, whichever is shorter; refinanced terms could not be more burdensome than the original ones; and borrowers would have to apply while the disaster declaration remains in force. No interest or late fees would accrue between the disaster declaration and the completion of the renegotiation, a period the draft caps at 90 days. Lenders could also offer additional voluntary relief, such as grace periods or special interest rates, provided the terms are no more burdensome for the consumer and the measures are not applied as a blanket restructuring practice rather than case-by-case review.

Credits refinanced under the program would keep the risk rating they carried before the disaster was declared, with credit-bureau reporting frozen for up to 12 months after the refinancing is completed, and the draft specifies the refinancing would not count as a modification or restructuring for prudential reporting purposes. Lenders would also be permitted to use alternative data sources to assess a borrower’s future repayment capacity, accounting for the likely economic recovery of the borrower’s sector.

Insurers, fund managers and severance withdrawals

Insurance companies would be required to establish expedited claims and payment channels for policyholders in affected areas, prioritize payment of healthcare providers’ invoices tied to the disaster, and adopt policies to facilitate premium payments, including for policies unrelated to credit operations. Trust companies and brokerage firms would be asked to evaluate mechanisms to speed redemptions from open-end investment funds without a minimum holding period, and to consider waiving early-redemption penalties for funds that carry one, for consumers affected by the disaster. Severance-fund administrators would be instructed to expedite housing-related severance withdrawals for affected members, within the bounds of Colombia’s existing severance-withdrawal rules.

The draft also directs supervised entities more broadly to maintain continuity of financial services where security conditions allow, disclose any changes to branch hours or closures, strengthen digital channels, and activate business-continuity plans in affected zones; to clearly publicize the terms of any relief programs; and to set up priority service channels for complaints and claims tied to the disaster. The SFC said it would establish its own priority contact channel to help affected consumers navigate complaints against supervised entities.

In its internal cost-benefit review, the SFC’s research and analysis unit found no reason to delay the proposal, concluding that reduced default risk, faster insurance payouts and improved liquidity access for affected consumers would outweigh the compliance costs institutions face in adapting systems, training staff and expanding service channels. The regulator said the draft requires no new budget appropriations and can be implemented with existing staff and technology. It also said a competition-impact questionnaire it completed under Colombia’s competition-advocacy rules returned entirely negative responses, meaning no referral to the Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio (Superintendency of Industry and Commerce) was required.

A two-day window, and a toll still being counted

The SFC set the unusually short two-business-day comment window under an exception in Colombian regulatory procedure that allows shortened public consultation periods when a rule responds to urgent, unforeseeable circumstances. The regulator said the scale of the disaster and the need for a prompt, uniform response from the financial sector justified the shortened timeline. Comments can be submitted using a standard form referencing filing number 2026182440, by email to normativa@superfinanciera.gov.co or in writing to the SFC’s deputy director of regulation. If adopted, the circular would take effect upon publication and would remain in force for as long as the national disaster declaration stands, though any relief already granted to consumers would continue on its own terms after the circular expires.

Colombia has also drawn $1.3 billion USD in international pledges since the earthquake struck. The comment window closes before search-and-rescue operations are expected to conclude, and the casualty figures the SFC cites as justification for the rule are themselves preliminary and likely to keep changing.

Above photo – Damage in Pereira, Colombia (Photo: Vance Campbell)

A mixed month for US Treasuries

Between May 26 and June 24, the US Treasury yield curve moved in two directions, according to the report. Yields on maturities between two and five years rose by an average of 6 basis points, while the 20- and 30-year segments fell by an average of 16 basis points. The research team tied the move to a communiqué indicating that the US and Iran had reached a memorandum of agreement during the final week of the period, aimed at extending the current ceasefire. Oil prices swung on mixed headlines through the period, and markets also took in inflation data that landed in line with the analyst consensus. In the US labor market, the report noted a stable unemployment rate alongside a significant increase in job openings.

Against that backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, a decision the bank flagged as the first without dissent in the past year and consistent with the Federal Reserve‘s prudent stance. The accompanying projections revised the 2026 growth outlook lower and the 2028 outlook higher; the unemployment forecast was cut only for 2026, while the inflation view was revised upward.

Cross-border demand for US debt strengthened. The US Treasury reported that foreign investors made net purchases of long-term bonds of $50.5 billion USD in April, the highest figure since November 2025. Private investors accounted for $30.8 billion USD of net buying in long-term Treasuries, a moderation from the pace seen in March. By geography, the net purchases concentrated in the United Kingdom and Japan, at $26 billion USD and $14.7 billion USD respectively, while investors domiciled in Canada were the largest net sellers as the country’s foreign reserves fell by $42.3 billion USD, followed by Norway and Korea.

Across emerging markets, 10-year sovereign yields moved unevenly over the month as investors responded to country-specific factors. Brazil led the increases at 46 basis points, followed by Indonesia at 43, Vietnam at 13 and Romania at 6, while Chile, Peru, India, Poland and the Czech Republic recorded declines. The report highlighted a 134-basis-point drop in Colombia, which it attributed to the market’s reaction to the first- and second-round presidential results that left Abelardo de la Espriella as president-elect for the 2026–2030 term.

The TES curve gains across the board

At home, the fixed-rate TES curve — Colombia’s peso-denominated treasury bonds — appreciated along its entire structure. Between May 22 and June 23 the curve gained an average of 188 basis points as yields fell across every segment: the short end (one to four years) by 172 basis points, the middle (five to nine years) by 218, and the long end (more than 10 years) by 169. The report attributed the move on the external side to the evolution of the Middle East conflict and the expectation of de-escalation agreements, and to the Fed’s decision to hold rates, which reinforced a cautious tone. Locally, it said the rally responded mainly to the first-round presidential result and held through the following three weeks, producing a stronger appetite for local debt.

An optimistic fiscal frame the bank questions

The report said the fiscal deficit would narrow in 2026 according to the figures in the Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo (Medium-Term Fiscal Framework). After its most recent update, the bank wrote, the National Government presented an optimistic outlook that does not fully incorporate the fiscal fragilities for 2026. The framework projects a deficit of 5.3% of GDP and a primary deficit improving to 2.1% of GDP. The research team countered that, while debt-management operations have improved the structure of debt service, they have been insufficient to halt the structural growth of interest payments, which would reach 3.9% of GDP in 2027 and remain above 4% in the following years. It added that debt reduction could be constrained by new financing needs in a low-liquidity environment, and that the framework itself acknowledges the need for an additional revenue adjustment of close to 1.6% of GDP to stabilize the debt.

The bank’s own outlook is more cautious than the government’s headline number. In its factor-by-factor view of the coming month, the research team described the fiscal panorama as a continuing source of concern and said the projected 2026 adjustment looks demanding, with revenue and spending pressures pointing to a deficit closer to 6.5% of GDP. Colombia lost a notch of its sovereign credit rating earlier this year, when S&P Global Ratings cut the country to BB- on fiscal concerns.

On budget execution, the report said the Presupuesto General de la Nación (General Budget of the Nation) had reached 46.7% of accumulated appropriations through May. Commitments under the budget totaled $259.8 trillion COP year-to-date, 5.5 percentage points above the same period of 2025. By component, investment led with 58.1% execution, followed by debt service at 50.0% and operating expenses at 43.1%. In terms of effective execution, accrued obligations through May reached $187.2 trillion COP, or 33.7% of appropriations, while payments stood at $185.7 trillion COP, or 33.4%.

Pension funds and banks lead TES buying

In May, pension fund managers (AFPs) and commercial banks led the month’s TES purchases, the report said. The total stock reached $763.6 trillion COP, an annual increase of 18.7% and a 1.9% gain over April. In the secondary market, net purchases came to $14.1 trillion COP, driven mainly by AFPs at $7.5 trillion COP, commercial banks at $5.7 trillion COP, insurance companies at $1.6 trillion COP and the Banco de la República at $1.3 trillion COP. Foreign funds were the largest net sellers, with a balance of -$4.7 trillion COP, a result the report attributed to the full cancellation during the month of a total return swap (TRS).

A negative tilt for the month ahead

Looking to the next month, the research team rated the balance of factors for the fixed-rate TES curve as negative overall, with the most negative readings at the short end. It pointed to a Federal Reserve holding a restrictive stance amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, and to external uncertainty tied to the Middle East and energy prices. On the domestic side, it noted that the economy grew 2.5% year-on-year in the first four months — less dynamic than initially expected after a retreat in primary activities — while public spending and private consumption should continue to support activity through the rest of the year.

The bank flagged inflation and monetary policy as the clearest pressures on local bonds. Annual inflation has stalled in its convergence toward the Banco de la República’s 2.0%–4.0% tolerance range and has begun to accelerate on high indexation and economic momentum, with gasoline-price adjustments, costlier fertilizers and an El Niño event capable of adding further pressure and putting inflation near 6.4% at year-end. With expectations rising, the policy rate stands at 11.25% and, the report said, could reach 12.00% at the June meeting and approach 12.75% in the second half of 2026 as the central bank works to anchor expectations. Set against those headwinds, the bank noted that Colombia’s sovereign risk premium fell over the month to below the Latin American average following the end of the electoral process, even as questions about the sustainability of public finances remain.

The report was prepared by the Directorate of Economic, Sector and Market Research of Grupo Cibest, led by Laura Clavijo, drawing on data from the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público), the Banco de la República, LSEG Workspace and JP Morgan.