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//dr. christopher murray
The above IHME map shows the mean value (across the 1,000 regressions that IHME runs in its SEIR model) of effective reproductive number, R, on June 9. Infections on June 9 roughly correspond to cases of COVID-19 on June 20 given the average duration of 11 days between infection and being reported as a case. Where this value is greater than 1, it means that every person infected with COVID-19 will produce more than one additional infected person. To successfully eliminate a disease from a population, R needs to be less than 1. The map shows that on June 9 in many parts of the world, R was lower than 1, including many parts of North America, Europe, Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand. Locations that are showing effective R values greater than 1, which means that the number of cases of COVID-19 in the population is growing, include several states in India, the US, Mexico, and Brazil, as well as many countries in the Southern Hemisphere, such as Argentina, Chile, and Indonesia. Several countries in the Middle East, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen, as well as Turkey and Iran, also had R values greater than 1 as recently as two weeks ago.
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Up To 81,942 May Die In Colombia From COVID-19 Says University of Washington Institute

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is forecasting nearly 388,300 people will die from COVID-19 in Latin American and Caribbean nations by October 1. Brazil is expected to exceed 166,000 deaths and Mexico 88,000. Six other...
Posted On June 29, 2020
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