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Ecopetrol has been a dividend cash cow for many years, but those days are surely coming to an end.

The first quarter of 2024 recovery is likely to be modest as well — in large part due to the central bank's refusal to lower rates until December.

Petro called it a "natural" disaster, but there is undoubtably a human element given the money invested previously to repair the road — to no avail.

The move was so far overdue — and was so small — that it has been forgotten already. It is of course a welcome message, but isn't big enough to shock the economy into life.

Banco de la República now surely have to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in a couple of weeks time.

In October, the monthly reading was 0.25%, which led to a year-over-year number of 10.48%. Now, the question is how far it will fall this month.

The real headline grabber should be Banco de la República, which — in its infinite wisdom — has chosen to ignore the other 99% who understand that 13.25% overnight rates choke off an economy.

Will Banco de la República upgrade its November meeting to a "decision" meeting in order to cut rates from 13.25% and start the easing cycle?

The central bank could hit Fedesarrollo's year-end estimate of 12.5% with cuts of 25 and 50 basis points in October and December, respectively.

For national unemployment, it is the lowest August since 2016. And for urban unemployment, it is the lowest August — EVER!