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Will Banco de la República upgrade its November meeting to a "decision" meeting in order to cut rates from 13.25% and start the easing cycle?

The central bank could hit Fedesarrollo's year-end estimate of 12.5% with cuts of 25 and 50 basis points in October and December, respectively.

In mid-November, the Banco de la República forecasted inflation to end both 2018 and 2019 at 3.3%.

While still in line with central bank projects, the uptick brings year-over-year inflation to its highest level since February.

Banco de la República has now held the rate steady since cutting it by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its April meeting.

Compared to June, the consumer price index fell by 0.13% — significantly below the consensus forecast.

The decision to maintain the current rate was approved unanimously by all seven members of the board of the Banco de la República.

While this was just 0.01% below the rate recorded in March, this represents the fifth straight month of decline.

The central bank board cited the “weakness of the economic activity and uncertainty over its pace of recovery.”

After cutting the benchmark interest rate to 4.5% in January, the central bank board "considered the cycle of rate reductions had been completed," says Echavarría