Abelardo de la Espriella took the oath of office in Cali on August 7, 2026, promising to reverse a decline in Colombia’s oil and gas sector that his predecessor’s own regulator had just finished documenting in granular detail. The Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (National Hydrocarbons Agency, ANH) published its 2025 Informe de Recursos y Reservas (Resources and Reserves Report, IRR) on June 23, 2026, in the final weeks of Gustavo Petro’s presidency, showing that Colombia’s proven natural gas reserves had fallen 54% since 2018, to 1,717 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with a reserves-to-production ratio of just 5.9 years. Finance Colombia examined that report in depth in a prior analysis. De la Espriella inherits those numbers, the political fallout at Colombia’s state oil company, and the task of proving his energy platform can outlast a single term.

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A Narrow Mandate for a Reversal

De la Espriella, a criminal defense attorney who had never previously held elected office, defeated Pacto Histórico (Historic Pact) candidate Iván Cepeda in the June 21, 2026, runoff by fewer than 252,000 votes, 49.65% to 48.70%, according to final results certified by Colombia’s Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council, CNE) and reported by Infobae. That margin has already defined his room to govern. His own party, Movimiento de Salvación Nacional (National Salvation Movement), holds just four of the Senate’s 103 seats, while Petro’s Pacto Histórico, now formally in opposition, remains the chamber’s single largest bloc with 26. Reopening hydrocarbon exploration is a decree away; sustaining that policy long enough for it to show up in reserve data will require coalition votes De la Espriella does not automatically command.

An Energy Pledge Built Around Ecopetrol

In his inaugural address, De la Espriella said, “Creo en la transición energética” (“I believe in the energy transition”), but insisted that “esa transición debe erigirse desde la fortaleza y no desde la debilidad, desde la autosuficiencia y no desde la dependencia” — “that transition must be built from strength, not weakness, from self-sufficiency, not dependence” — according to Semana’s coverage of the speech. He called rebuilding Ecopetrol (BVC: ECOPETROL, NYSE: EC) — which he described as the country’s most important company — “a definitive and absolute priority of my government,” saying it had been “treacherously plundered” over the prior four years, according to El Colombiano’s account. He committed to reopening hydrocarbon exploration contracts and authorizing what he called responsible, sustainable fracking under the country’s strictest technical and environmental standards, and he warned that an approaching El Niño weather pattern threatens hydroelectric generation on top of the reserves shortfall.

“That transition must be built from strength, not weakness — from self-sufficiency, not dependence.”

— President Abelardo de la Espriella, inaugural address, August 7, 2026

To carry out that policy, De la Espriella named María Nohemí Arboleda Arango to head the Ministerio de Minas y Energía (Ministry of Mines and Energy). Arboleda spent more than five years as chief executive of XM, the company that operates Colombia’s national power grid and wholesale electricity market, and holds an electrical engineering degree from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Her appointment reads as a technical rather than political pick for a ministry that will decide how quickly exploration contracts and fracking permits actually move.

Ecopetrol’s Leadership Purge

Ecopetrol enters the new administration already reeling from the departure of its previous president, Ricardo Roa Barragán, who managed Petro’s 2022 presidential campaign before Petro installed him atop Colombia’s largest company in 2023. Colombia’s Fiscalía General de la Nación (Attorney General’s Office) filed a formal accusation against Roa on June 9, 2026, for tráfico de influencias (influence peddling), alleging he bought a Bogotá penthouse at a favorable price from a company tied to oil and gas investor Serafino Iacono, according to Infobae. In the same case, prosecutors separately allege Roa directed Ecopetrol to favor a company owned by retired police colonel Juan Guillermo Mancera with contracts, after that company made payments benefiting Roa’s circle between March 2023 and February 2024. On August 12, prosecutors filed a second accusation, alleging Roa’s 2022 campaign spending exceeded legal caps by roughly $1.66 billion COP combined across both election rounds, El Heraldo reported. Roa has pleaded not guilty in both cases. “I have already declared myself innocent … in both cases I am under investigation for,” he told Noticias RCN on July 17, according to Infobae’s account of his remarks.

Roa left the presidency of Ecopetrol for good on July 30, 2026, days after briefly returning from leave, in a reshuffle that also removed board member and former board chair Ángela María Robledo Gómez, board member Tatiana Roa Avendaño, and vice presidents Bayron Triana and Victoria Irene Sepúlveda Ballesteros, El Tiempo reported. Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra became acting president; Luis Felipe Henao Cardona became the new board chair. The reshuffle leaves Ecopetrol’s next permanent president to reverse the exploration slowdown while Roa’s criminal cases move through Colombian courts.

Production Keeps Falling

The reshuffle arrived alongside more evidence of the sector’s slide. Colombia’s average oil output fell to 724,910 barrels per day in April 2026, the lowest monthly average so far this year, though still 1.5% above April 2025’s level, according to La República’s reporting on ANH data. Commercialized natural gas output fell more sharply, down 14.2% year-over-year to 694 million cubic feet per day, according to ANH figures reported by El Tiempo. Colombian regulators separately track a broader “fiscalized” production measure that fell even further over the same period — a reminder that the specific gas metric cited changes the size of the number, though not the direction.

Fracking Is Not Actually Banned

De la Espriella has made authorizing fracking a central plank of his energy reversal, but Colombia has no statute prohibiting it. A regulatory framework dating to 2013 and 2014, expanded in 2020 to allow pilot research projects, survived a challenge at the Consejo de Estado (Council of State) in 2022. What actually halted fracking activity was a narrower ruling: Colombia’s Corte Constitucional (Constitutional Court) found in a 2023 decision that regulators had violated the consulta previa (prior consultation) rights of an Afro-descendant community near two pilot wells in Puerto Wilches, and suspended those two projects specifically. Restarting the broader pilot program is therefore largely an executive and administrative matter — issuing new contracts and environmental licenses — rather than one requiring new legislation or a reversal by the Constitutional Court, though any expansion is likely to face the same kind of community-consultation challenges that stopped the Puerto Wilches projects, per Semana’s legal analysis.

What Investors Are Watching

The fiscal stakes are not abstract. Hydrocarbon royalties totaled $29.6 trillion COP over the 40 months between Petro’s August 2022 inauguration and the end of 2025, and the ANH projects that Colombia’s existing proven reserves are worth roughly another $36 trillion COP over their remaining life, per the same IRR 2025 report — a projection that assumes production holds at a reserves-to-production ratio the report’s own data no longer support. De la Espriella inherits a reserve base that would take a decade of sustained investment to rebuild, an LNG import terminal in Cartagena — operated by Sociedad Portuaria El Cayao and branded SPEC LNG — built to buy back gas the country stopped extracting from its own subsoil, and a state oil company that just lost its president to a criminal docket instead of a strategy document. Whether that combination changes is now a question for a president who will have to build, vote by vote, the legislative majority he was not elected with.

Barranquilla pacts widen US-Colombia security, investment ties

President Abelardo De La Espriella and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed two bilateral framework agreements in Barranquilla on September 8, 2026, covering critical minerals supply chains and civil nuclear cooperation, in what Rubio said was his first trip to Colombia since becoming secretary of state. The signing was held at the Batallón Paraíso, which has served as a presidential venue in Barranquilla during the visit, according to El Heraldo. It capped a day of meetings between Rubio, De La Espriella and Foreign Minister Omar Bula Escobar that De La Espriella framed as the start of a broader package he called the Acuerdos de Barranquilla (Barranquilla Agreements).

The first instrument, the Framework Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Colombia for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths, sets up cooperation on mineral supply-chain security. The second, the Memorandum of Understanding Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Colombia Concerning Strategic Civil Nuclear Cooperation, links Colombian and American nuclear researchers, regulators and industry and supports US non-proliferation objectives. According to El Tiempo, the nuclear memorandum does not authorize any transfer of nuclear technology, which would require a separate, longer-negotiated “123 Agreement,” and Colombia becomes the 16th country to sign this kind of arrangement with Washington since 2019, following Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Ghana, the Philippines, Armenia, Kenya, Singapore, El Salvador, Malaysia, Bahrain, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and Paraguay.

De La Espriella tied the agreements directly to the August 10 earthquake that struck near San José del Palmar, Chocó, and damaged municipalities in Valle del Cauca. He said the US has provided $26.5 million USD in humanitarian assistance since the disaster, calling it more support than any other country has given, and said the two governments are moving “from emergency solidarity to a long-term strategic partnership.” The US Department of State has said the aid, delivered in two tranches, covers food, health care, protection, shelter and post-earthquake structural assessments, and is channeled through groups including the International Federation of the Red Cross, the International Organization for Migration, UNICEF, the World Food Programme and World Vision, according to Portafolio.

De La Espriella described the Acuerdos de Barranquilla as organized around three goals: rebuilding earthquake-affected areas, recovering the economy and strengthening hemispheric security. On the economic side, he proposed a bilateral prosperity dialogue with specific, funded, timelined projects on infrastructure, technology, industrial rebuilding and the minerals sector, and asked Rubio to back Colombia’s access to multilateral financing instruments. He also asked for a US commercial-diplomacy commitment covering investment, funding and technology, in exchange for Colombia offering project sites, production capacity and streamlined regulation.

On security, De La Espriella again pressed for what he calls the Plan Patriota Siglo XXI (21st Century Patriot Plan), a proposal to modernize Colombia’s aircraft, drones, radar, helicopters, counter-drone systems, air defense, cybersecurity and special-forces capability, financed partly with Colombia’s own resources. He said Colombia wants to be Washington’s top hemispheric security partner and set annual, verifiable counternarcotics targets covering precursor chemicals, trafficking routes, leadership networks and money laundering. Colombia joined the Coalition of the Americas Against the Cartels, a multinational anti-cartel effort coordinated by US Southern Command and known regionally as the Escudo de las Américas (Shield of the Americas), on August 12, becoming its 19th member nation, and De La Espriella said Medellín will host the coalition’s Colombian coordination site. Rubio, for his part, said Colombia has not asked for US troops and described the cooperation instead as intelligence-sharing, equipment, target identification and specialized training, according to El Heraldo.

De La Espriella also raised Venezuela, noting the two countries share more than 2,000 kilometers of border and that instability there affects Colombian security, migration, smuggling, armed groups and energy supply; he said Colombia would cooperate with the US on regional stability “in a very responsible manner.” In a separate press appearance the same day, Rubio said Washington had raised the presence of ELN camps and other armed groups operating from Venezuelan territory with the interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, and that the matter would also be taken up with what he called Venezuela’s future democratic government, calling the pattern of fighters crossing into Colombia to commit crimes and returning across the border “not sustainable,” according to El Tiempo. De La Espriella said the two governments had agreed to expand migration-data and biometric cooperation and border enforcement, and he asked Rubio to study reopening a US consulate in Barranquilla, which last had one years ago. On illicit finance, De La Espriella asked for expanded judicial and financial cooperation to trace and seize laundered proceeds and hidden assets tied to organized crime.

Foreign Minister Bula Escobar cast the visit in commercial terms, saying before Rubio’s arrival that Colombia would pursue “solid, constructive and mutually beneficial relations,” with particular emphasis on “economic and commercial diplomacy: attracting investment, opening markets, promoting exports, tourism, technology and innovation.” Colombia’s ambassador to Washington, María Consuelo Araújo, said in the same release that the bilateral relationship in security, commerce and culture remains “extremely important and relevant” to both countries, according to the US Embassy in Bogotá.

“We look forward not just to restoring that but building upon it and creating a golden age of relationships between our two countries and our two people.”

— Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Rubio, who first met De La Espriella years before either held his current office, said the previous four years of distance between the two governments were “not natural” given the scale of economic, cultural and personal ties between Colombia and the US. Neither side put a dollar figure on the broader minerals, infrastructure or energy commitments discussed; De La Espriella said working teams in Washington and Bogotá will develop specific projects, funding and timelines in the coming weeks.

Full remarks: the Barranquilla signing ceremony and joint statement

The following is the full text of the signing ceremony and joint statement between President Abelardo De La Espriella and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, released by the US Department of State, Office of the Spokesperson. Video of the exchange is available from the official Colombian Presidencia YouTube channel.

MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Good afternoon. Good afternoon. The Presidency of Colombia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would like to welcome you to the ceremony of two memorandums of understanding between the Government of Colombia and the Government of the US of America.

We are pleased to have His Highness President Abelardo De La Espriella, who is the president of Colombia, that’s going to be in this act as the witness — as a witness of honor. And we would also like to greet Omar Bula Escobar, who is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Colombia, and His Excellency Marco Rubio, who is the Secretary of State of the United States of America, who are going to sign both agreements.

(In English) Good afternoon. The Presidency of the Republic of Colombia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcome you to the signing ceremony of two memoranda of understanding between the Government of the Republic of Colombia and the Government of the United States of America. We are honored by the presence of His Excellency Abelardo De La Espriella, President of the Republic of Colombia, who joins us as witness of honor. We also welcome His Excellency Omar Bula Escobar, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Colombia, and the Honorable Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the United States of America, who will sign both instruments.

(In Spanish.)

(In English) We will now proceed with the signing of the first memorandum of understanding, the Framework Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Colombia for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths. (Applause.)

(The Memorandum is signed.)

(Applause.)

(Via interpreter) Okay, thank you so much. We will now proceed with the signing of the second memorandum of understanding that it’s called the Memorandum of Understanding Between the Government of Colombia and the United States of America about Civil Strategic Cooperation, signed by the chancellor of Colombia and the Secretary of State of the US.

(In English) We will now proceed with the signing of the second memorandum of understanding, the Memorandum of Understanding Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Republic of Colombia Concerning Strategic Civil Nuclear Cooperation. (Applause.)

(The Memorandum is signed.)

(Applause.)

(Via interpreter) Thank you so much. Thank you so much. And now we were going to go to the joint declaration about the meeting between the statement between Abelardo De La Espriella and the Secretary of State of the United States Marco Rubio. And we’re going to initiate with the Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Mr. Secretary, welcome. Welcome.

SECRETARY RUBIO: (Via interpreter) Thank you so much, Mr. President. And thank you. I’m so glad — I’m so glad. I came here last time as a senator but in the last four years as a senator, and then as the Secretary of State we hadn’t traveled here. And I think that until a certain point, this is a signal of the distance that had been created between our governments, which is not natural because the relationship between Colombia and the United States is almost impossible to replicate because they are personal links, cultural links, and also — and also at the economic level. And also we also have the opportunity to restore that natural relationships that we have between our countries, but also to grow into a new stage, a new cooperation stage with our president even stronger than we had before.

We talked a lot about security, because always security is key, because without security there is no prosperity. But the opportunities that exist between Colombia and the US is much more than security because it’s the base of everything. Without security it’s impossible to operate as a country and as a society. But beyond that — because sometime people say that I — now they’re telling me I’m speaking in a low — you can hear me well, right? They say I’m speaking in a very low voice.

There is no doubt that without security a country cannot progress, and the threats to security that Colombia is facing, it’s the same things that we face in the US: the same networks, the same criminal groups that, although they commit their crimes here, they also commit crimes in the US, and they damage our people. But that’s the base. That’s the key. That’s the most relevant thing.

And because the most important role of any — of any government in any part of the world, it’s the security of its people. But above that, we can build on prosperity, which is extremely important to move forward. And also the opportunity that exists for Colombia at the economic level are huge, are amazing, and these are opportunities that Mr. President has in mind that we can work together so that it benefits both countries.

We have a lot to do because, unfortunately, this government inherited a series of disasters, bad decisions, and we feel — we feel the same when we went into power a year and a half ago. But you are facing the errors of the last four years, and you need to face this. And besides that, there was a disaster. There was an earthquake that was tragical.

But there are amazing opportunities, and we’re going to use this opportunity that we have nowadays, because the links between our two governments are so solid to ensure that not only are we going to focus on security, but this is something going to be key in our relationship, but we’re also going to focus in what we call the opportunity of creating a prosperity that helps the North American people and also helps the Colombian people.

And this relationship between our governments have a — have direct impact on the daily life of people here but also the people in the US, and especially people in the certain part of Florida where I’ve lived most of my life.

If you allow, Mr. President, I’m going to give a couple of words.

(In English) I want to say a few words in English as well. First, I want to thank the president for receiving us. It — it’s not every day — let me say in this in Spanish first. I should’ve said it earlier.

(Via interpreter) It’s not — and we’ve not always traveled to a country and we have the opportunity to exchange with chief of state that you met before they were president, before he was a politician, because of the mutual relationships that we have. And even when we were talking not long ago, the two years ago when we were in the same — we were in the same table at a wedding in the southern part of Florida. That’s why this is a place where the president of the — the president is someone that I’ve met at a personal level. And then he went crazy and decided to become a politician and decided to turn president.

(In English) So I think that it’s unusual that you travel to a country that you meet with a head of state and a president who you’ve actually known for years before he was president, before he was even in politics. And as I was joking, when he lost his mind and went into politics, and — but he’s going to do a great job for this country, and I know that. I know that from what I know about him from before he was president. This is a man of energy. This is a man of strength. This is a man of vision and of courage because he’s confronting a very difficult situation. He has inherited many disasters.

Obviously, the country faces the aftermath of a natural disaster in an earthquake, but he also faces a disaster that’s institutional, that goes through four years of very bad management and that, frankly, harmed the relationship between the United States and Colombia, something that simply is not natural. The United States and Colombia have a strong bond that exists well beyond just the cooperation of our governments. It’s a strong economic bond. It’s a strong cultural bond. It’s a strong people-to-people bond, a social bond.

I can tell you personally, having lived in south Florida the majority of my life, how we follow so closely the events that happen in Colombia, because it has a direct impact on life in south Florida and ultimately in our country. This is the natural state of things, is for the US and Colombia to be strong allies and strong partners, and the last four years is an aberration between our governments. But that is changing as well.

Clearly, the most important obligation of any government is to provide for the security of their people. It’s the number one obligation, and that is certainly an issue that you will confront here and that I am confident the president and his team are very serious about, and we’re going to do everything we can to help you.

But security is the basic and most important requirement of a government, but prosperity follows closely behind it, and that is opportunity of a country and an economy that provides the opportunity for upward mobility and prosperity for all of its people. And we believe we have a lot we can do together in the field of energy, in the field of trade, in the field of commerce, that allows both countries to benefit: the people of the United States, who I work for, and the people of Colombia, who the president works for and his team works for.

So I’m excited that after not having been here for a while, to be back, to be back with someone I know so well as president, who I know has a great vision and energy for the future, and excited to be back in a country that has been our strongest ally and partner in the region for many, many years. And we look forward not just to restoring that but building upon it and creating a golden age of relationships between our two countries and our two people.

Muchas gracias. (Applause.)

PRESIDENT DE LA ESPRIELLA: Thank you.

(Via interpreter) A very special welcome to all of you today. Barranquilla has been the scenario of a very strategic conversation for the present and for the future of Colombia and of our relationship with the United States of America. To welcome the Secretary of State Marco Rubio here in the Colombian Caribbean has a very special meaning, because Barranquilla has been historically the Golden Door of Colombia to the world and represents an absolute conviction of my government because Colombia, it’s not just governed from Bogotá, Colombia; it’s governed from its regions.

I would like to thank Secretary Rubio. His presence — we are honored by his presence. He has been an inspiration for this battle for democracy, institutionality, and freedom because there is no Latino in the world that doesn’t feel represented by Marco Rubio, that has always done things the best way possible. And with regards to our community, that’s why I thank you so much, Mr. Secretary of State. It’s a pride and honor to have you here in the land of Barranquilla.

I also would like to publicly acknowledge the solidarity of the US Government after the earthquake that we endured on August 10th. They have helped us with $26.5 million USD in humanitarian assistance, and besides all of what they are doing regarding the fires that people are suffering near Tolima. No country in the world has helped as much as the United States, and today we’re giving a step forward. We are not going back from the solidarity in the emergency, to a very strategic partnership, a long-term strategic partnership.

From this meeting there is a guideline that we’ve called the Barranquilla agreements, and they follow three main topics that are highly relevant for our country and for the hemisphere. We are going to rebuild the homeland, we are going to recover the economy, and we are going to protect the hemisphere. And we’re initiating a historical and close relationship that was interrupted during four years, but it has always been there in the deeper areas, in the deeper basis of Colombia, because the United States has been our partner. We have been their ally and partner, and when the United States and Colombia have worked together, the only thing that we have had, it’s development, security, and progress.

The main purpose of this agreement, it’s the rebuilding and the economic recovery. The earthquake left huge challenges in households, in bridges, utilities, and in productive capacity. We were thinking where we wanted to work on cooperation, investment, and funding mechanisms, including the International Development Corporation, other agencies, the private sectors and companies from both countries. We would like to attract investments to the infrastructure, energy, households energy, and the productive reconstruction Colombia is also going to do (inaudible) because we are going to do what we have to do regarding fiscal discipline, the legal certainty, efficiency, expanding better investment conditions.

In the same way, I requested Mr. Secretary of State to accompany us before multilateral organisms to enable instruments that allow us to fund these transitions without sacrificing the economic transition of our countries.

We are proposing to the US a partnership where Colombia puts project territories, productive capabilities, resources, and clear rules and regulations (inaudible) the US supports investments funding technologies and business capability.

Other of the important points, it’s shared prosperity. I have proposed Mr. Secretary to have this bilateral prosperity dialogue with very specific projects with — that has funding, timelines that our teams in Washington are going to continue developing. We identified some policies regarding infrastructure, technology, industry, rebuilding, and also rare minerals, which is the treatment we’ve just signed. Colombia has access to two oceans, has the strategic resources and human talent. We need to turn all those opportunities that Colombia has in investments and productive chains, in manufacturing and also in employment for our people.

Another very important point, it’s security in the struggle against drug terrorism. Colombia wants to become the first hemispheric security partner with the US, and we’re going to be the partner number one in South America. The 21st century requires new capabilities. That’s why we have proposed to the government, and I said it once again today, the Patriot Plan 21st century is to update airplanes, drones, radars, helicopters, anti-drone systems, aerial defense, mobility, intelligence, cyber defense, special forces, and the maintenance and the operationality. We’re going to have our own resource and we hope to build together capabilities to be able to face sophisticated threats.

But at the same time, we need the support — we need the support, a push from the United States, and we’re going to work in a very decisive manner in our fight against drug trafficking. We’re going to start with — we’re going to go through the precursors, we’re going to go through the pathways, we’re going to go through the leaders, we’re going to go to the narco-terrorists, we’re going to go through the money laundering and other criminal equity and also those international networks that are a huge challenge not only for the hemisphere but also for humankind. Colombia, it’s ready to have annual quotas, verifiable indicators, and very specific agreements. We’re going to do what we are (inaudible), and with that basis we want to have a co-responsibility that is effective for both countries.

Another important thing — it’s the Shield of the Americas. We’re already operational. Colombia is going to fulfill its responsibilities. We’re going to have the site in Medellín, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to be able to attack and to be able to give them the place that they deserve, which is either a prison or a tomb. And I say it: If a criminal doesn’t — if a criminal doesn’t follow the law, he is not going to get it his way.

And we also talked about Venezuela because we share more than 2,000 kilometers of borders with the neighboring country, and everything that happens in Venezuela has a direct consequence in Colombia regarding security, migration, smuggling, armed groups, and also energy. Colombia will participate along with the United States in a very responsible manner in the focused efforts to be able to ensure regional stability and will delve on trans-border cooperation, migration, and security. Our interest, Mr. Secretary of State, it’s that we each have institutionality, stability, and also security. We want to avoid any type of issue.

Another very important point that I mentioned to Mr. Secretary, it’s our foreign policy is based on a main policy. It’s that Colombia relates with the world from its own national interests. It has sovereignty, autonomy, pragmatism, and also a long-term vision, and this is where we’re perfectly tuned with the United States. We have now resources, geographic positions, human talent, and also very strategic assets. Our diplomacy needs to turn those strengths in opportunities to be able to become the best partners of the US. And we’re going to do it, Mr. Secretary, because this is a new rebirth.

Another very important topic, it’s migration and the rule of law. We agreed to delve on migration — more migration cooperation, exchange of information, biometric tools, identifying of the people (inaudible) to struggle against the migrants’ networks, and also the strengthening of border controls. Our idea, it’s that legal migration and — legal, safe, and organized migration, because our principle, it’s the same one that the United States shared. We’re not against migration. We’re against illegal migration, which is something different.

And there is a topic that it’s very close to my heart, and I said, Mr. Secretary, you know that many years ago we had — we had a consulate. And I said, hey, as the son of this region, I said if you can please open a consular office in Barranquilla, the alternate capital city of Colombia. And we are — we want a venue. We would like to consider it if possible, Mr. Secretary, because it’s been something that we’ve expected for years. First we had a consular office in Barranquilla, and then they took — and they removed the one from Barranquilla. The idea, it’s to go back to things as were before, and we hope to have here in Barranquilla the American consular office.

And once again, a topic that it’s also close to my heart, it’s cooperation to follow the path of the money. We would like to see what’s money laundering resources that come from resources and hidden assets, strengthening judicial cooperation and financial cooperation. All of this, it’s going to be under the evidence of the framework of law, due process, and the respect for institutions, because to catch criminals, it’s not enough. We also need to strike the money that supports those financial structures. We need to affect the pocket of the criminals because it will hurt them.

This was a very deep, cordial, strategic conversation. Not only are we talking about the United States can do for Colombia, we also talked about what Colombia and the United States can do together for the hemisphere, because Colombia contributes a geographic position, strategic resources, productive capability, human talent, a very experienced armed forces, and a government that is committed. And we would — wanted this — this new stage to start here in Barranquilla, in the Colombian Caribbean, and in the region. The Barranquilla agreements need to turn into projects, investments, and cooperation.

In the security and also specific outcomes, we need to rebuild the homeland. We need to recover the economy. We need to protect the hemisphere. As of now, our teams will start to work to turn those expectations, those desires, those projects, and realities. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless Colombia today more than ever. Thank you. (Applause.)

MODERATOR: (Via interpreter) Thank you so much, Mr. President. Thank you so much, Mr. Secretary of State. We — in this way, we are fulfilling the agenda of Mr. Marco Rubio to the city of Barranquilla. Thank you so much.

Headline photo: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella and Foreign Minister Omar Bula Escobar at the signing ceremony in Barranquilla on September 8, 2026. (Photo courtesy Presidencia de Colombia via YouTube)

After the Earthquake: Investing in Colombia with Knowledge and Confidence

Every time we feel an earthquake—even one that lasts only a few seconds—we are reminded of something we often take for granted: the safety of the place we call home.

For anyone considering a real estate investment in Colombia, this concern is entirely understandable. Buying property is an important financial decision, but it also means choosing a place to live, build wealth or welcome other people. That is why investors should look beyond location, price and potential returns and also consider how and when the property was built.

Colombia has developed its earthquake-resistant building regulations over several decades. One of the first major milestones was the Colombian Earthquake-Resistant Construction Code of 1984. It was followed by the NSR-98 and the NSR-10, which strengthened and updated the technical requirements governing building design and construction.

“Investing after an event like this should not mean buying out of fear. It should mean buying with better questions, reliable information and greater awareness.”

— Andrea Guerra, Real Estate Agent in Medellín, Colombia

As investors, we should review the construction permit and determine which regulations applied when the project was approved. This does not mean that every older building is unsafe or that it must meet every requirement introduced years after it was completed.

Throughout Colombia, many older buildings were designed by architects and engineers with a solid, traditional approach to construction. Some offer robust structures, excellent materials and generous spaces that can be difficult to find in newer developments.

Nevertheless, age or an appearance of strength cannot replace a professional assessment. Maintenance, renovations and the building’s current condition must also be considered.

Each Colombian city and region has its own conditions. In Bogotá, it is important to understand the behavior of the soil in the specific area. In Cali and the Pacific region, seismic risk deserves particular attention. In coastal cities, investors should consider the effects of humidity and salt exposure on building materials. In the Coffee Region and other mountainous areas, slopes and ground stability also need to be evaluated.

In Medellín and the Aburrá Valley, this final consideration is especially relevant. Our geography is shaped by mountains, steep hillsides and streams. A spectacular view may add significant value, but it also makes it important to understand the soil conditions, drainage systems and stability of the surrounding area.

As a real estate agent, I recommend that investors:

• Verify the construction permit and the building regulations applicable at the time.
• Research the track record of the developer and the professionals involved.
• Request the available soil studies, structural plans and technical documentation.
• Review recent homeowners’ association or building-management records for references to repairs, water damage, cracks or inspections.
• Consult a structural engineer whenever there is a genuine concern.

It is also important not to panic whenever a crack appears. Some cracks affect only finishes, while others require specialized attention. The responsible approach is neither to ignore them nor to draw conclusions without professional advice.

To me, a good investment is not simply the property promising the highest appreciation or rental return. It is one that allows us to make an informed decision and feel confident about what we are buying.

Andrea Guerra
Real Estate Agent in Medellín, Colombia https://teconnectainmobiliaria.co/

Medellín will host the return of Smart Capital on October 7 and 8, 2026, the venture capital forum’s first edition in six years. The event is organized by the Medellín district government, Ruta N and the Cámara de Comercio de Medellín (Medellín Chamber of Commerce), in alliance with ANDI del Futuro, Starter and ACI Medellín, the Agencia de Cooperación e Inversión de Medellín y el Área Metropolitana (Cooperation and Investment Agency of Medellín and its Metropolitan Area). Organizers describe the goal as bringing together national and international investors and business leaders to examine shifts in the venture capital market and to connect funds, companies and financing opportunities across Latin America.

ANDI del Futuro is the entrepreneurship and acceleration arm of the National Business Association of Colombia (ANDI). Organizers did not further identify Starter, the sixth named alliance partner.

The forum’s return coincides with a rebound in the city’s venture funding: startups based in Medellín have drawn $216 million USD in investment so far in 2026, according to organizers. The city ranks first in Latin America for startup density, with 10.9 companies per 100,000 residents, ahead of Bogotá, Santiago, São Paulo and Buenos Aires, according to StartupBlink’s Global Startup Ecosystem Index 2026. “Our ecosystem has recorded 41 percent growth over the past two years, placing us at number 162 among more than 1,100 cities analyzed,” said María Fernanda Galeano Rojo, Medellín’s secretary of economic development, when the ranking was published in May.

Smart Capital’s agenda covers changes in the venture capital market, new scenarios for risk capital, liquidity alternatives and the role of public-private co-investment. Attendees are expected to include family offices, corporate investors, and representatives of development banks and the public sector. The event will also set aside space for direct meetings between 20 investment funds and 35 startups, matched according to each fund’s investment thesis, stage focus and growth criteria.

Confirmed speakers include representatives of the Latin American Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (LAVCA); SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO: 9984; OTC: SFTBY); Bancóldex, Colombia’s state foreign-trade bank; Capria Ventures; L40; Confrapar; Alaya Capital; Fondo de Fondos, a Mexican fund-of-funds platform; Chile’s Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (Production Development Corporation), known as Corfo; and Trefilia Capital, a Monterrey-based family office, among others.

Smart Capital operates under Medellín Venture Capital, the Ruta N-led strategy to mobilize capital toward the city’s technology-based businesses. Under that strategy, Ruta N and Bancóldex have structured a fund-of-funds partnership that has unlocked $40 million USD, with capital already committed to Simma Capital and three additional funds — JEC Capital Group, Winter Kapital and Linku Ventures — in the final stages of legal and tax structuring. Ruta N also reports having trained more than 150 investors through the initiative, including 94 angel investors, 39 family offices and 17 corporate entities.

The gathering’s last edition convened in Medellín in March 2020, drawing commitments toward $144 billion COP in projected financing across nearly 600 meetings between entrepreneurs and investors, according to Forbes Colombia — weeks before pandemic-related restrictions halted in-person business events across the country.

Active investors interested in attending Smart Capital can register at rutanmedellin.org.

Headline photo: Attendees work between sessions at a Ruta N event in Medellín. (Photo courtesy Ruta N)

Insured earthquake claims reach $3.7 trillion COP in a month

Colombian insurers had recorded an estimated $3.7 trillion COP in claims value tied to the August 10, 2026, earthquake as of September 7, according to the fourth weekly damage report published by Fasecolda, formally the Federación de Aseguradores Colombianos (Federation of Colombian Insurers), the trade group representing the country’s insurance companies. The figure is up $1 trillion COP from the previous week’s report and comes one month after a magnitude-7.4 earthquake struck near San José del Palmar, in the Chocó department, according to Semana. As of September 7, Colombia’s Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (National Disaster Risk Management Unit, or UNGRD) had counted 331 deaths, 111 people missing and 4,505 injured, with nearly 467,000 people affected across 498 municipalities, Semana reported.

The estimated claims value has grown roughly tenfold since insurers’ first weekly report on August 14, when it stood at $370 billion COP. It rose to $1.2 trillion COP by August 21, $2.67 trillion COP by August 28 and $3.7 trillion COP in the report released September 8, covering the period through September 7.

Insurers had received 68,270 claims as of the September 7 cutoff, up from 66,370 in the prior report, a 3% increase in eight days. That volume is up 550% from the 10,465 claims logged in insurers’ first balance during the initial emergency response, before the weekly reporting series began. Claims have been filed in 451 municipalities across 31 departments, according to Fasecolda.

Insurers have paid out $95.08 billion COP in indemnities to affected policyholders, up 121% from the prior weekly report, funds Fasecolda said are reaching homeowners, businesses and residential co-ownership associations directly. The disbursed total remains a small fraction of the $3.7 trillion COP insurers expect to eventually pay, reflecting how early the claims process remains a month into a filing window that runs two years from the date of the earthquake.

Gustavo Morales, Fasecolda’s chief executive, framed the figures as a reflection of both the scale of the damage and the industry’s remaining workload.

“A month after the earthquake, our priority continues to be standing by the people, families, businesses and co-ownership associations affected.”

— Gustavo Morales, chief executive, Fasecolda

The five hardest-hit departments by claims volume are Valle del Cauca, with 28,201 claims, $46.22 billion COP paid out and an estimated $1.35 trillion COP in total claims value; Risaralda, with 14,755 claims, $26.34 billion COP paid and an estimated $1.30 trillion COP in claims value; Quindío, with 8,158 claims, $12.45 billion COP paid and an estimated $256 billion COP in claims value; Caldas, with 3,998 claims, $4.68 billion COP paid and an estimated $220 billion COP in claims value; and Antioquia, with 5,847 claims, $660 million COP paid and an estimated $106 billion COP in claims value.

Department	Claims filed	Paid to date (COP)	Estimated total value (COP)
Valle del Cauca	28,201	$46.22 billion	$1.35 trillion
Risaralda	14,755	$26.34 billion	$1.30 trillion
Quindío	8,158	$12.45 billion	$256 billion
Caldas	3,998	$4.68 billion	$220 billion
Antioquia	5,847	$660 million	$106 billion

By line of business, earthquake coverage — which Fasecolda groups together with homeowners’ and fire policies — accounts for the large majority of reserved claims value nationally: 63,786 claims and a $3.34 trillion COP reserve. Business-interruption coverage, known in Colombia as lucro cesante, accounts for just five claims but a $33.9 billion COP reserve, reflecting the size of the commercial policies involved. Automobile coverage accounts for 1,219 claims and a $22.9 billion COP reserve, and occupational-risk coverage, which insures workplace injury and death, accounts for 1,113 claims and a $16.6 billion COP reserve.

Line of business	Claims filed	Total reserve (COP)
Earthquake (incl. home and fire)	63,786	$3.34 trillion
Business interruption (lucro cesante)	5	$33.9 billion
Automobile	1,219	$22.9 billion
Occupational risk	1,113	$16.6 billion

Fasecolda has published a claims guide on fasecolda.com intended to walk affected policyholders through what to do if they suffered damage, how to report a claim, which coverage may apply and the steps to file with their insurer. The federation reiterated that affected policyholders have up to two years from the date of the earthquake to file a claim, and can do so directly with their insurance company or through their broker without an intermediary.

The insurance-claims tally follows emergency measures Colombia’s financial regulator, the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (Financial Superintendency of Colombia, superfinanciera.gov.co), proposed within days of the earthquake to ease the burden on affected borrowers and claimants, including extended loan terms, waived default fees and fast-track insurance payment channels, as Finance Colombia reported in the days after the disaster.

Headline photo by Rupert Stebbings

The Colombian peso closed last week at 3,084.9 pesos per US dollar, an appreciation of roughly 18 percent since the start of the year. Standard economic theory holds that a stronger currency should lower the cost of imported goods and, eventually, ease consumer prices. New research from Grupo Cibest (NYSE: CIB; BVC: CIBEST), the holding company that owns Bancolombia, finds that the relief has been far more limited than the size of the rally would suggest.

The bank’s economists estimate that each percentage point of peso appreciation reduces annual goods inflation by 0.16 percentage points over twelve months. On the consumer price index as a whole, the effect is considerably smaller. A previous Grupo Cibest analysis found that a 1-point currency depreciation drives a 0.12-point rise in headline inflation over a year; this report finds that an appreciation of the same size lowers headline inflation by no more than 0.04 points over the same horizon — roughly a third of the force. The exchange rate’s pass-through into prices, in other words, works much harder on the way up than it does on the way down.

Grupo Cibest’s own conclusion is blunt about what that means for consumers.

“The strength of the peso has contained inflation, but it does not correct it.”

— Grupo Cibest, economic research team

Why a stronger peso doesn’t show up at the register

Goods are the main channel through which the exchange rate reaches Colombian consumers, since their production and distribution depend heavily on imported inputs and finished products. Grupo Cibest’s model — an asymmetric autoregressive distributed-lag specification that controls for the business cycle, monetary policy and global oil prices — points to three factors that keep the pass-through incomplete.

The first is inventory rotation: much of what is on store shelves today was bought months ago under exchange rates that no longer apply, so a lower dollar takes time to show up in available merchandise. The second is asymmetry in firms’ pricing incentives — companies are reluctant to cut prices in response to currency moves they see as transitory, even as they raise prices quickly when the dollar rises. The third, and the most relevant to the current moment, is margin recomposition: during Colombia’s prior depreciation cycle, firms absorbed part of the shock instead of passing the full cost of a pricier dollar on to consumers, sacrificing a share of their profit per unit sold. The recent strength of the peso has let them restore those margins instead of passing the lower cost on to shoppers. Resilient household demand has reinforced the pattern — consumption remains one of the main drivers of Colombia’s economic activity, giving firms room to sustain prices even as import costs fall.

A shrinking share of a larger basket

Goods carry a weighting of just 18.56 percent in Colombia’s consumer price index, so even a full pass-through would have a modest effect on the headline number. Services and regulated prices, which make up most of the rest of the basket, respond mainly to domestic drivers — wages, indexation and local demand for services, and tariff-setting decisions for regulated prices — with limited exposure to the dollar. Food prices sit in between: they use some imported fertilizer and grain, but their behavior is driven mostly by weather and other agricultural conditions.

Even within an imported good, the final price a consumer pays layers on costs that have nothing to do with the exchange rate: rent, domestic transportation, staff salaries, advertising and taxes. Those links in the chain cushion the shock as it travels down the supply chain — a lower exchange rate reduces the cost of bringing merchandise into the country, but that savings represents only a small share of what a shopper ultimately pays.

The size of the currency move matters too. International evidence shows pass-through loses strength as an exchange-rate swing gets larger, since firms absorb a growing share of the shock in their margins and space out price adjustments to avoid revising them too often. That dynamic explains the current disconnect: despite an appreciation of nearly 20 percent over the past year, goods inflation has been rising for seven straight months, and the headline index has not delivered the relief the size of the currency move would imply. The pass-through operates with a lag, transmits only partially, and competes against cost pressures pulling in the opposite direction.

A reversal would hurt more than the rally has helped

The asymmetry carries a warning for what comes next: if the peso gives back part of its recent strength, Grupo Cibest expects the effect on prices to be larger than what the appreciation has delivered, because firms pass along cost increases faster than they pass along cost reductions. The ongoing fiscal debate and external financing conditions will be the key drivers of where the dollar-peso rate goes from here. The exchange rate’s contribution to moderating inflation is therefore likely to stay limited: a stronger peso has held down goods prices, but its reach over the total inflation rate is narrow, and it competes with pressures of a different origin, including wage adjustments and food-supply shocks. The peso’s strength has contained Colombia’s inflation, in short, but it has not corrected it — further disinflation will depend on domestic factors rather than the dollar.

Colombia’s inflation accelerated again in August

The backdrop for that debate is an inflation rate still moving the wrong way. DANE, Colombia’s Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (National Administrative Department of Statistics), reported annual inflation of 6.24 percent in August, up 20 basis points from July, its highest level since July 2024 and just above Grupo Cibest’s own forecast of 6.19 percent. The monthly print of 0.39 percent far exceeded the average analyst forecast of 0.27 percent and was the highest print for the month of August since 2023. Services explained 57 percent of the month’s inflation, contributing 22 of the 39 basis points of the increase, largely on the pass-through of wage indexation. Inflation excluding food hit its highest level since October 2024, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Grupo Cibest expects the upward pressure to persist on continued indexation, rising labor costs, regulated-tariff adjustments and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern in the back half of the year.

Other gauges of the Colombian economy showed a mixed picture for July. Retail sales are estimated to have grown 13.0 percent year over year, driven by a 19.9 percent jump in vehicle sales, even as vehicle sales showed signs of moderating from the 45.7 percent average pace recorded so far in 2026. Manufacturing output is estimated to have contracted 1.0 percent over the same period, a decline Grupo Cibest links to lower industrial-input imports and softer energy demand, partly offset by improving business confidence; the peso’s 19.2 percent annual appreciation has also cut the cost of imported inputs, even as it makes finished goods made abroad more competitive against local production.

Colombia’s Economic Tracking Index, the Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía (ISE), is estimated to have grown 2.8 percent year over year in July, below its four-month average of 3.7 percent, reflecting an uneven performance across sectors. Primary activities faced climate-related risks and the effect of the stronger peso on export competitiveness, particularly for coffee, even as mining outperformed on favorable oil and non-monetary gold output. Construction showed a mixed picture, with civil works offsetting persistent weakness in housing, while services — including entertainment, public administration, and trade, transportation, accommodation and food services — stayed dynamic.

Consumer sentiment offered a brighter note. Grupo Cibest projects Fedesarrollo‘s Consumer Confidence Index reached 21 points in August, a 0.3-point monthly gain and a 23.4-point jump from a year earlier, which Grupo Cibest attributes to sustained declines in unemployment, strong durable-goods consumption and the stronger peso, alongside favorable signals from economic activity and nominal income growth — though persistent inflation and international geopolitical uncertainty could temper the index in coming months. Separately, Fedesarrollo’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Index fell to 194 points in August, down 42 points from July and 77 points from a year earlier, though still above its 2000-2019 historical average of roughly 100 points — a decline the think tank tied to the removal of electoral uncertainty and stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP.

A global backdrop of renewed inflation pressure

Colombia’s story is unfolding against a global economy where inflation risk is resurfacing rather than fading. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual consumer inflation ticked up 0.03 percentage points to 3.4 percent in August, in line with market expectations and the highest reading since June, as energy prices climbed on a 0.40 percent monthly increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased 0.03 percentage points to 2.45 percent, also in line with consensus. Markets now assign better than 60 percent odds to a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Reserve‘s September 15-16 meeting, which would lift the target range to 3.75-4.00 percent; the Fed is likely to take a cautious stance as it weighs whether easing core prices offset renewed energy-driven pressure.

Producer prices accelerated more sharply: the annual Producer Price Index jumped to 5.4 percent in August from 2.7 percent in July, driven largely by a 1.1 percent monthly rise in final-demand goods prices, a sign that the run-up in energy costs tied to the escalation of the Middle East conflict is beginning to feed into US production costs.

US consumer confidence sent a starker signal. The University of Michigan‘s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, well below the 51.0 the market had expected, as households’ views of both current conditions and the outlook deteriorated on the back of Middle East tensions and rising fuel prices. Sentiment has now fallen 16.0 percent since February, before the conflict began, and 13.0 percent from a year earlier; one-year inflation expectations rose 0.6 percentage points to 4.6 percent, the highest since June.

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent, its third increase this cycle, citing sustained inflationary pressure tied to the Middle East conflict and projecting inflation will stay above its 2 percent target through at least 2028 — even as it revised its 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts upward, to 0.9 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics reported consumer inflation accelerated to 0.8 percent annually in August, its fastest pace since May and in line with market expectations, while producer prices rose 3.8 percent, beating analyst forecasts on higher energy costs, commodity prices and technology-sector demand. Inflation across Latin America showed similar upward pressure in August, with Peru accelerating to 4.44 percent on higher food prices — its highest since April — and Chile rising to 4.13 percent on energy and services costs. Mexico’s rate climbed to 3.26 percent, its first acceleration since March, on stronger goods and food prices. Brazil was the exception, with inflation easing to 4.22 percent from 4.44 percent on softer food and fuel costs.

Bond markets reprice for a longer tightening cycle

Fixed-income markets moved to reflect the firmer inflation outlook. The US Treasury curve sold off between September 4 and September 11, with yields on two- to seven-year notes rising an average of 24 basis points and ten- to thirty-year maturities climbing 14 basis points; the 10-year yield rose 16 basis points to 4.94 percent. Emerging-market sovereign bonds were mixed: Colombia and Malaysia led increases with yields up 33 basis points, followed by Poland (30 basis points) and Peru and the Czech Republic (22 basis points each), while China, Romania and Indonesia posted modest declines and Brazil and Turkey rallied, with yields falling 46 and 52 basis points, respectively. JPMorgan‘s pricing shows markets now assign roughly 90 percent odds to a 25-basis-point Fed increase at the September meeting, with traders pricing further gradual increases beyond that as persistent inflation pushes out the expected length of the tightening cycle.

Colombia’s peso-denominated government bonds, known as TES, sold off in sympathy: yields on the fixed-rate curve rose an average of 16 basis points across short-, medium- and long-dated maturities following August’s inflation surprise. Locally, markets watched proposals from Colombia’s Director of Public Credit, an office within the Ministerio de Hacienda (Finance Ministry), aimed at strengthening liquidity and access to the public debt market. Pension funds, known by the Spanish acronym AFP, led net purchases of TES in the secondary market during August at $4.9 trillion COP, followed by trust companies at $3.1 trillion COP and the Banco de la República — Colombia’s central bank — at $1.5 trillion COP; commercial banks were the largest net sellers at $5.3 trillion COP, followed by foreign funds at $2.2 trillion COP and the Finance Ministry itself at $1.4 trillion COP. The total outstanding stock of Class B TES reached $800.6 trillion COP at the end of August, up 19.8 percent from a year earlier and 0.3 percent from July.

The average coupon on the government’s Class B TES debt rose to 10.08 percent in August, its highest level since October 2023, up 9 basis points from July and 143 basis points since the end of 2025 — reflecting bonds issued earlier in the year at financing rates higher than those seen in 2025. The increase was driven in part by UVR-linked debt, whose average coupon climbed to 10.82 percent amid persistent inflation, while the coupon on fixed-rate TES rose to 9.72 percent, up 150 basis points for the year.

Peso gains alongside a spike in oil prices

The peso’s weekly gain came as Middle East tensions intensified further. Brent crude closed at $104.73 USD per barrel, up 8.78 percent for the week, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $102.48 USD per barrel, up 12.02 percent, as the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated and Iran-aligned Houthi rebels advanced on the Red Sea city of Mocha, threatening control of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also fell in August after a collapse in Saudi Arabian output amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes, while China’s own oil purchases increased, pushing up premiums on African and Latin American crude as buyers looked beyond the Persian Gulf amid the supply scarcity there. Markets have begun pricing the conflict extending beyond 2026, despite comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting a possible resolution tied to the November 3 legislative elections.

Banco de la República saw $296.3 million USD exercised of the $400 million USD awarded in its second reserve-accumulation options auction this month. Colombia’s theoretical devaluation curve showed mixed movement: the one-month tenor fell 1 basis point and the twelve-month tenor fell 4 basis points, while tenors between three and nine months rose an average of 3 basis points. The market-implied devaluation curve, by contrast, retreated across its full structure, reversing the prior week’s upward trend on sustained forward sales from offshore and institutional agents — even as the implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed increase at its September 15-16 meeting rose to 86.5 percent by September 11, from 59.4 percent a week earlier.

President Abelardo de la Espriella signed Decree 1368 of 2026 on Tuesday, September 8, lifting the general suspension that had kept holders of a firearm carrying permit from carrying their weapons outside their homes since 2015. The move fulfills a campaign promise and takes effect Wednesday, September 9, the day after its publication in the Diario Oficial (Official Gazette).

The decree, issued by the Ministerio de Defensa Nacional (Ministry of Defense), ends the additional special authorization that holders of an individual carrying permit had to obtain on top of their existing license during the suspension. It does not create new rights, authorize unrestricted or indiscriminate carrying, or alter the licensing requirements, restrictions and controls set out in Decree Law 2535 of 1993, Colombia’s foundational arms statute, according to the decree’s text. The state’s constitutional monopoly over weapons, war ammunition and explosives under Article 223 of the Constitution remains in force.

“For years, the citizen who obeys the law was restricted, while criminals kept arming themselves illegally to the teeth. That has to change,” de la Espriella wrote on his X account. He added that the change “does not mean indiscriminate carrying” and that strict controls, requirements and permits from the competent authorities remain in place. “What ends is the general suspension that turned the prohibition into the rule,” he wrote. “To the law-abiding citizen who strictly complies with the law, guarantees within the law. To the criminal illegally armed, the full weight of the law and the full legitimate force of the State.”

Firmé el decreto que levanta la suspensión general de los permisos para el porte de armas de fuego en Colombia.

Durante años se restringió al ciudadano que cumple la ley mientras los criminales siguieron armándose ilegalmente hasta los dientes. Eso tiene que cambiar.

Las cifras… pic.twitter.com/dsZAshWMWS

— DE LA ESPRIELLA STYLE (@DELAESPRIELLAE) September 8, 2026

The suspension traces to Decree 2515 of 2015, signed by then-President Juan Manuel Santos on December 24, 2015. “Colombians deserve a calm and safe Christmas and New Year,” Santos wrote on Twitter at the time, according to El País, which reported the measure was meant to guarantee tranquility and security for Colombians over the holiday season. It initially ran through January 31, 2016, but Santos’s government kept extending it, and every administration since has renewed it in turn. The measure was formalized into a standing, annually revisited policy under Decree 2362 of 2018, signed during the government of Iván Duque, which cited a declining trend in homicides and injuries linked to firearms between 2016 and 2018 as grounds for continuing it. Its most recent extension came from Decree 1482 of December 31, 2025, signed by then-President Gustavo Petro, which pushed the suspension’s expiration to December 31, 2026. Decree 1368 repeals both the 2018 and 2025 measures outright.

The general suspension power itself derives from Article 41 of Decree Law 2535 of 1993, as modified by Law 1119 of 2006, which authorizes Colombia’s competent military authorities to suspend the validity of carrying and possession permits nationwide. Colombia’s Constitutional Court upheld that authority in a 2010 ruling, finding it consistent with the state’s constitutional monopoly on arms.

De la Espriella defended the decision with seizure figures covering January 1 through September 3, 2026: Colombia’s security forces confiscated 15,700 firearms in that period, 14,179 of them linked to the commission of crimes, according to El Tiempo. Of the total, 980 weapons were tied to FARC dissident factions, 551 to the Clan del Golfo and 339 to the National Liberation Army (ELN), the president said, adding that the weapons linked to dissident groups alone included 380 rifles and 65 60-millimeter mortars.

“There is no justification for bandits being armed to the teeth while decent people cannot defend themselves.”

— President Abelardo de la Espriella

The decree specifies that the lifted suspension does not extend to weapons whose permits have expired, been individually suspended, canceled or revoked, been seized or placed under a judicial or administrative measure, or that are subject to a separate legal or judicial prohibition, nor to permits that authorize only possession rather than carrying. Colombia’s military authorities retain their power to issue, renew, suspend, cancel or revoke individual permits, the Policía Nacional (National Police) keeps its inspection and seizure authority, and the Ministry of Defense’s Departamento Control Comercio de Armas, Municiones y Explosivos (Department for the Control of Arms, Ammunition and Explosives Trade) will continue to maintain the registries used to verify which permits remain valid.

The distinction that matters going forward, according to attorney Fabio Humar, is between possession and carrying. “Proving you are licensed to have a weapon requires a permit. But possession is different from carrying, which is what was restricted. What this decree does is authorize carrying,” Humar told El Tiempo.

Former President Gustavo Petro, whose own government signed the most recent extension of the suspension in December 2025, criticized the repeal in a two-word post on X: “La necropolítica,” or “necropolitics” — a concept, Infobae noted, that links state policy to violence and exposure to death.

Above photo: © Loren Moss

Colombia is pressing to revive a stalled trade agreement with Japan and to draw new investment from Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM; TYO: 7203), after Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Mauricio Gómez Amín held two meetings in Tokyo on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, as part of an agenda aimed at positioning Colombia as a regional platform for production and investment.

“Japan is looking at Colombia again, and we are ready to capitalize on that confidence.”

— Mauricio Gómez Amín, Colombia’s minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism

Gómez Amín, who leads the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (MinCIT), met separately with Toshiro Ino, Japan’s state minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, and with Hiroshi Nanbu, president of Business Planning and Operation at Toyota. The trip is part of President Abelardo de la Espriella’s administration’s push to attract long-term Japanese investment and generate employment.

With Ino, Gómez Amín advanced an agenda to reactivate and conclude the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Colombia and Japan, an accord intended to open Colombian agroindustry to Japanese investment and technology transfer. The two countries began negotiating the EPA in December 2012. 16 of its 18 chapters have been agreed, but two — rules of origin and market access — remain unresolved, and the talks were suspended in 2021, according to Colombia’s embassy in Tokyo. El Tiempo reported that Colombia and Japan reactivated the negotiation in September 2025, when then-President Gustavo Petro and then-Trade Minister Diana Marcela Morales Rojas met their Japanese counterparts on the sidelines of Expo Osaka 2025.

“Japan is looking at Colombia again, and we are ready to capitalize on that confidence,” Gómez Amín said.

The Toyota meeting revisited a relationship of more than five decades. The first Toyota vehicles reached Colombia in 1959, and the company formalized a local distributor in 1967. Sofasa, the assembler that has long built Renault vehicles in Envigado, Antioquia, signed a letter of intent with Toyota in 1989; assembly of Land Cruisers and Hilux pickups began in 1992 and continued for 17 years, before Toyota exited its stake in the plant. In Tokyo, the Colombian government invited Toyota to expand its footprint into the assembly of hybrid and electric vehicles, along with charging infrastructure and the development of local suppliers.

The government describes the push as an effort to draw on Colombia’s talent, strategic location and existing conditions to build a regional production and investment platform. Gómez Amín said the goal is to put Bogotá “on the world map of investments, strengthening relations with a region that for years looked favorably on Colombia,” according to comments carried by El Tiempo.

Japan is the largest Asia-Pacific source of foreign direct investment in Colombia. Japanese investment flows into the country totaled $562.7 million USD between 2010 and 2021, or 32.9 percent of all Asia-Pacific investment Colombia received in that period, ahead of China (21.2 percent) and Australia (14.6 percent), according to the Colombian embassy in Tokyo.

The Tokyo meetings produced no signed agreement and no specific investment commitment from Toyota; both would require further negotiation that the two governments have not scheduled publicly.

Headline photo: Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Mauricio Gómez Amín (right) and Japan’s State Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Toshiro Ino, in Tokyo. (Photo courtesy MinCIT)

The Colombian peso weakened 1.8% against the US dollar in August, closing the month at COP3,215 after the government’s release of its 2027 National Budget triggered a depreciation of nearly 5% in the final week, according to the monthly foreign exchange report from Grupo Cibest (NYSE: CIB; BVC: CIBEST), the financial conglomerate that owns Bancolombia S.A. The pullback interrupted, but did not erase, one of the sharpest currency rallies in the world this year. The peso had appreciated 16.5% against the dollar by August 10, according to an analysis by Corficolombiana (BVC: CORFICOLCF), the investment bank controlled by Grupo Aval (NYSE: AVAL; BVC: PFAVAL), reported by El Colombiano, and as much as 19.9% by August 30, according to the trade association Fenalco (National Federation of Merchants), reported by El Nuevo Siglo — in both cases pushing the exchange rate to its lowest levels since April 2019 and making the peso the best-performing currency in Latin America.

The month split into two distinct phases, Grupo Cibest’s analysts wrote. Early in August, the Banco de la República (Bank of the Republic), Colombia’s central bank, surprised markets. Its board had voted at a July 31 session to hold the benchmark interest rate at 12% and to build up to $4 billion USD in international reserves through a new options-auction mechanism; when the bank ran the program’s first auction on August 3, buying $400 million USD, according to El Universal, the combination of the rate hold and the new dollar demand pushed the dollar down further against the peso. The mood reversed after August 27, when the government of President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office August 7, submitted a revised 2027 National Budget to Congress that acknowledged a far deeper deterioration in public finances than previously disclosed.

The revised budget raised the government’s projected total fiscal deficit from 5.3% to 7.2% of gross domestic product for 2026, and from 4.5% to 9.4% of gross domestic product for 2027, after incorporating obligations tied to debt service, pensions, health care, payroll costs, energy subsidies and the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund that had previously been underestimated. Grupo Cibest called the disclosure “a necessary reality check” and said clarity on the government’s medium-term fiscal adjustment plan, which has yet to be published, would be critical to the peso’s direction from here.

The currency’s slide happened despite favorable conditions abroad. The US Dollar Index fell 0.5% in August after a weak employment report, while Brent crude gained 0.3% to close the month at $90.04 USD per barrel — a combination that would typically support, not weaken, an emerging-market currency like the peso. Grupo Cibest said the divergence showed the depreciation was driven almost entirely by local, not global, factors.

Even with August’s reversal, the broader trend remains firmly in the peso’s favor. The exchange rate stayed below both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages for most of the month, and Grupo Cibest noted that the medium-term technical structure remains bearish for the dollar, with all three moving averages still trending downward. Analysts at Corficolombiana attributed the rally mainly to lower political and fiscal risk premiums tied to Colombia’s change of government rather than to any structural improvement in economic fundamentals, and it expects a partial correction in the exchange rate in the months ahead.

The strong peso has split Colombia’s export sector from its import-dependent businesses and consumers. Between January and May, exporters stopped receiving approximately $12.2 trillion COP in revenue as a direct consequence of the currency’s appreciation, according to the same Corficolombiana analysis, with coal, bananas, flowers, coffee and labor-intensive manufacturing among the hardest-hit categories. Fenalco noted that those losses have been compounded by higher labor costs and by new United States tariffs on Colombian goods, which combine a 10% universal duty with an additional 2.5-percentage-point surcharge tied to labor-standards enforcement, and it pointed to Colombia’s 12% policy rate, one of the highest in the region, as a magnet for the short-term capital inflows that have helped drive the appreciation. Bruce Mac Master, president of the National Business Association of Colombia (ANDI), said in August that the trend was already undermining the country’s competitiveness as an exporter.

“The dollar is reaching levels of COP3,000, which without a doubt puts us in a very complex situation and takes away our competitiveness. It significantly affects exporters’ income when they convert it into pesos.”

— Bruce Mac Master, president, ANDI

Mac Master said Colombia should study measures to discourage those capital inflows, arguing that the central bank’s inflation mandate now competes with a bigger risk: eroding the country’s productive base. Corficolombiana’s own numbers suggest the picture is more mixed than exporters’ losses alone would indicate. The research firm estimated that cheaper imports saved Colombian businesses and households about $15.6 trillion COP over the same five months, for a net national benefit of roughly $3.4 trillion COP, and it found no significant widening of the trade deficit so far, in part because Colombia’s oil and gold exports have benefited from higher international prices even as their peso-denominated value has been squeezed by the exchange rate.

Tourism has felt a similar split. The association of travel and tourism agencies, Anato, told La República that the arrival of non-resident visitors fell 1.6% between January and May compared with the same period in 2025, as the stronger peso made Colombia a less attractive low-cost destination for foreign travelers. “The appreciation of the Colombian peso can create the perception of a more expensive country for foreigners, a situation that is worsened when combined with risk factors such as informality, security perceptions and travel warnings,” the association said. Anato’s executive president, Paula Cortés Calle, said the currency move complicates outbound travel as well: although a weaker dollar is usually seen as an incentive for Colombians to travel abroad, she said, the operational reality for travel agencies is more complex because of the time gap between quoting a trip and paying international suppliers.

Grupo Cibest expects the exchange rate to trade within a COP3,100-COP3,300 range in September, with risk running in both directions. On the upside for the dollar, the firm is watching the government’s promised Economic Rescue Act proposal, which it said would be critical in assessing Colombia’s ability to stabilize its public debt trajectory, along with continued pressure on US dollar liquidity. Foreign exchange intermediaries’ spot dollar cash position stood at $1.4 billion USD on August 9 before turning negative later in the month; Grupo Cibest expects it to settle near $800 million USD, well below the 2026 year-to-date average of $3.1 billion USD.

On the downside for the dollar, Grupo Cibest pointed to continued carry-trade activity, in which investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding Colombian assets, as well as to the central bank’s plan to keep purchasing close to $400 million USD in reserves per month through September. Additional support for the peso could also come from international aid tied to the reconstruction effort following the magnitude-7.4 earthquake that struck Chocó and neighboring departments on August 10.

As of September 7, the exchange rate stood at COP3,126, near the middle of Grupo Cibest’s forecast band, according to a market report carried by El Universal. Colombia’s August inflation figure, due the same day, was expected to remain above 6%, a reading that would keep pressure on the central bank to hold its policy rate steady even as the fiscal picture it revealed at the end of August continues to work through the market.

 

Medellín will host the Horasis Global Summit for the first time in November, becoming the third Latin American city — and the first in Colombia — to hold the international conference since it launched in Liverpool, United Kingdom, in 2016. The meeting runs November 10-13, 2026, at Universidad de Medellín, with the bulk of panels, plenaries and keynote sessions concentrated on November 11 and 12.

A press release issued August 12, 2026, by Horasis, the Swiss group that organizes the summit, describes Medellín as Latin America’s second host city, after São Paulo. Horasis’ own published event history lists two prior Brazilian editions before Medellín: Vitória in 2024 and São Paulo in October 2025, the 10th edition of the summit and the largest to date, with roughly 1,000 speakers from 50 countries. Medellín’s edition, the 11th Global Summit, is the first held in a Spanish-speaking country in Latin America.

Organizers expect more than 700 international speakers from 40 countries across five continents, plus a comparable number of Colombian participants. Sessions will run in English, the standard format for Horasis meetings worldwide, and will cover economics, artificial intelligence, health, education, sustainability, technology, investment and international cooperation under this year’s theme, “Building Tomorrow.”

José Manuel Restrepo, who was sworn in as Colombia’s vice president on August 7, 2026, alongside President Abelardo de la Espriella, according to El Tiempo, is listed as guest of honor. Restrepo previously served as Colombia’s minister of commerce, industry and tourism and later as finance minister under former President Iván Duque, and has served as rector of three Colombian higher-education institutions — CESA business school, Universidad del Rosario and Universidad EIA — according to Noticias RCN. He is scheduled to speak at the summit’s grand opening alongside Medellín Mayor Federico Gutiérrez and Horasis chairman Frank-Jürgen Richter.

Richter, who founded Horasis after serving as a director of the World Economic Forum, said the choice of Medellín reflects the city’s transformation. “Holding the Horasis Global Meeting in Medellín represents much more than choosing a venue; it means recognizing a city that has shown that transformation is possible when leadership, innovation, academia and cooperation converge,” Richter said. “Medellín will inspire the world, and at the same time, the world will find in Medellín a space to build shared solutions for the future.”

Ana María Pineda de Béglé, Horasis’ director for Latin America, is leading the event’s organization. “It’s a unique opportunity for Medellín, Antioquia and Colombia to meet with opinion leaders from around the world, exchange perspectives with them, and form alliances that could extend across Latin America and other continents,” she said.

The summit carries the backing of the Alcaldía de Medellín (Medellín Mayor’s Office), the Cuerpo Consular de Medellín (Medellín Consular Corps), Comfama, the Greater Medellín Convention & Visitors Bureau, ACI Medellín, Fenalco Antioquia, Acopi Antioquia, Corporación Fenalco Solidario, ProColombia, Metro de Medellín and the city’s public and private universities, according to organizers. Horasis has also opened four sponsorship categories for companies and institutions seeking to participate as strategic partners.

The program lists more than a dozen confirmed co-chairs, including Bo Inge Andersson of Ivanhoe IV, Claude Béglé of Symbioswiss, Carlos Creus Moreira of WISeKey, Martín Burt of Fundación Paraguaya and former Zimbabwean minister Sekai Holland. A session titled “Building Colombia’s Global Economic Role,” scheduled for November 11, lists confirmed panelists including Federico Hoyos of Fundación Los 8 Valores, Loren Moss, publisher of Finance Colombia, Daniel Umaña of DUE Capital, Alvaro Soto-Holguin of Neotropico and Judith Vergara of Universidad EAFIT.

A separate session, “Building Medellín’s Innovation Economy,” chaired by Ruta N director Santiago Henao, is set to examine what has made the city’s innovation-district model — anchored by Ruta N since 2009 — distinctive, and what the city still needs in talent, capital or regulation to compete for high-growth companies.

Richter, in the press release, said he hopes the Medellín meeting becomes more than a one-time event. “Through Horasis, the success of Medellín’s social and economic transformation will spread even further, as entrepreneurs and academics from around the world come to share their ideas and solutions to put into practice here,” Richter said. “And hopefully Colombia will become the permanent home of Horasis’ global conference.”

Headline image: Delegates at a previous Horasis Global Summit. (Photo courtesy Horasis)