Mourning the Tragedy in Chocó, Another Preventable ‘Natural’ Disaster in Colombia

There are certain realities regarding Colombia that have been around for decades — and which I fear will continue long into the future. The weather is extreme enough to kill. The resources to construct safe infrastructure throughout Colombia have been stolen many times over by corrupt administrators, and it is the poorest who always seem to take the brunt.

Late last week, heavy rainfall caused a huge landslide and blocked a road in Chocó, one of Colombia’s poorest regions. The drivers took shelter and were almost immediately washed away by a second avalanche. This is a key transportation route that is still little better than a track — and which should have been developed years ago. Around 40 souls have been lost, with more missing. As they are part of Colombia’s underclass, the headlines will likely be short-lived.

President Gustavo Petro has promised $100 million USD to secure the highway, but it is way too little, way too late. He called it a “natural” disaster, but there is undoubtably a human element given the money invested previously to repair the road — to no avail. A common tale of corruption.

One sidebar issue here is that the airlines, not for the first time after a disaster, have once again been caught red-handed increasing fares and scalping those who need to get to the region. Hopefully, Aerocivil will take action but it remains an incompetent entity (something laid bare by the demise of Viva Air).

Elsewhere, the effects of El Niño are starting to bite. Ironically, considering the rainfall mentioned above, there are concerns over forest fires and reservoir levels have dropped to 66.6% (in August they stood at 83.3%). We have seen electricity prices rise already and, as demand rises — for air conditioning, etc. — and with supply moving somewhat away from cheap hydro ,there will be a secondary supply side impact. All this taps into the fight against inflation for the Banco de la República and the Ministry of Finance.

In macro terms, we have the latest from the real sector, followed by industrial activity and Construction data later in the week. All of them are for October and the reality is that there is little cause for optimism — at least until interest rates really begin to fall.

The National Administrative Department of Statistics reported the latest quarterly (September to November) informal labor information. Fortunately, it has fallen from 58% to 55.5% — but that still means that 12.8 million are working without benefits such as insurance, pension, and social security. Still much to be done.

Never miss Rupert’s latest commentary
Follow him now on LinkedIn to see What Jumps Out