The rationale or excuse is the uncertain fiscal situation as the authorities struggle to balance the books, and also this week’s developments with the USA. It’s a tough call as the fiscal situation has been a constant for the past year and the fact that the Peso closed Thursday at $4170, its strongest in several months, suggests fears related to Donald Trump, shared by half the world, are overstated.

For the Central Bank, this will be the last meeting before two governors are replaced by Petro’s picks – the February meeting will arguably draw a lot of attention for that reason.

Petro’s perceived belligerence at the beginning of the week when dealing with the treatment of returning Colombian migrants, is now being viewed as a reasonable humanitarian request. It will hopefully embolden other Latam countries to demand the same basic respect from the USA.

November imports from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia rose 13.7% to $5.8bn, more evidence of a recovering economy however with exports still struggling somewhat, the YTD deficit now stands at $9.9bn, higher even than the $9.1bn for the first 11 months of 2023. Exports at least are being helped by coffee, with new record high prices this week.

Catatumbo remains a mess on the Venezuelan border and the government is still struggling to wrangle control back from the ELN and FARC, who are fighting over this lucrative cocaine route.

About it for this Friday, have a wonderful day.

Regards.

Roops.

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Headline Image: Coffee beans from Don Elias finca in Salento, Colombia. (Credit: Jared Wade)

The Peso hit and stayed above 5,000, many have asked if that is a fair level. The market always dictates but it does feel more of a self-fulfilled prophecy as opposed to a rational level.

As expected, President Petro declared a Climate Disaster Emergency as the ongoing La Niña threatens to continue into 2023. The amount of funds to be appropriated have yet to be announced but with 2,500 reported ‘events’, 453,000 people affected, 203 deaths and 37 missing, every Peso is welcome after the worst “winter” in 40 years.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Petro met with Maduro of Venezuela this week. It is a delicate situation with many Colombians, but the border is now open and more airlines are asking to operate the routes. The first month saw a modest $2.5 million USD in trade – but from small acorns……….

Export data for September disappointed once again with exports totaling $4.778 billion USD – up on the $4.582bn of the previous month but missing the consensus of $4.97bn. The number was up 26% YoY (FOB) but only 7.7% in tonnage terms. Coal was the main driver in both FOB (76% of total increase) & Tonnage (+14.1%) but oil whilst rising on a FOB basis, dropped 7.5% in Tonnage terms, precisely when the country needs to be cashing in on favorable prices.

PMI for October came in at 50 – there are no consensus estimates on this but that isn’t a great reading. Even in 2020 the number was at 51.7 – even as the country was still struggling with Covid.

Perhaps the macro highlight was the unemployment data for September. Both the Urban (10.45%) and Total (10.70%) numbers continue to trend downwards. Also, YoY those two categories have added 1.02mn and 10.7mn new jobs respectively over the past 12 months.

CPI data is due tomorrow (Saturday) with the expectation that we will be above 12% for the first time since April 1999.

Related to this I was finally relieved to see some debate in the press as to why the Central Bank only makes rate decisions at 8 of their 12 meetings – to me an utter nonsense of a concept. In November there will be no decision even if inflation goes to 14%? There is a mechanism whereby they could move rates in an emergency, but why back yourself into that corner?

Please find below the video on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rupert-stebbings-927b6316a_what-jumps-out-self-fulfilling-prophecy-activity-6994247241225936896-EZgS?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

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That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops

Based on the government website, visitors who have been in or transited through Colombia in the previous 10 days cannot enter the UK. British and Irish nationals, and third country nationals with residence rights in the UK arriving in the UK from Colombia will need to self-isolate with their households on their return.

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office issued an advisory for British nationals against all but essential travel to the whole of Colombia based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks, and for security reasons the FCDO advised against travel to:

• the departments of Arauca and Guaviare (except their capital cities)
• the department of Chocó (except its capital Quibdó, the whale-watching towns of Nuquí and Bahía Solano, and the tourist site of Capurganá)
• the Ariari region of southern Meta (except the tourist site of Caño Cristales – if travelling to Caño Cristales, travel by air to and from the town of La Macarena with a reputable tour company)
• the South Pacific, Sanquianga and Telembi regions of Nariño
• the Western region of Cauca
• Buenaventura in the department of Valle del Cauca
• the Urabá and Bajo Cauca regions of Antioquia
• the region of Southern-Bolívar
• the region of Southern-Córdoba
• the Catatumbo region of Norte de Santander
• Orito, San Miguel, Valle del Guamuez, Puerto Caicedo, Puerto Guzmán, Puerto Asis and Puerto Leguizamo in Putumayo
• Cartagena del Chairá, San Vicente del Caguan, Puerto Rico, El Doncello, Paujil and La Montañita in Caquetá
• the municipality of Puerto Carreño in Vichada, except the departmental capital
• within 5km of the Venezuelan border and within 5km of the Ecuadorian border, except for the border crossing on the Pan-American highway, at Ipiales.

Beginning 4am on January 15, 2021 visitors who have been in or transited through Colombia in the previous 10 days cannot enter the UK. British and Irish nationals, and third country nationals with residence rights in the UK arriving in the UK from Colombia will need to self-isolate with their households on their return. Click here for the latest guidance for England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

Following the December 20 announcement by the Colombian Government to restrict flights to and from the UK, travelers cannot enter Colombia if their journey started in the UK, but with some exceptions to this (see Entry requirements). Direct flights to and from London have been suspended until further notice.

Travel is subject to entry restrictions

Arrivals to Colombia are subject to mandatory entry requirements:

• For air travel into Colombia, a negative PCR test issued within 96 hours prior to boarding will be required for all passengers, including children.
• Travelers without a negative PCR test may be asked to complete a written form explaining why they were unable to get a test or the results in time prior to being allowed to board by the airline. Passengers will be required to take the test upon arrival and to self-isolate either for 14 days or until a negative test result is received
• Between 24 hours and 1 hour before departure, travelers must fill out the ‘Check-Mig’ form, available on the Migración Colombia website. The traveler will receive a confirmation email that must be presented upon arrival in Colombia. Travelers also will need to complete this form 24 hours before departure from Colombia.
• Travelers must not present a fever or respiratory symptoms associated with Covid-19 prior to boarding the aircraft.
• The use of a mask is mandatory for everyone over two years of age throughout the flight.
• Travelers must bring spare facemasks and follow the airline’s instructions on how regularly to change them during the flight.
• Travelers must stay in your assigned seat during the entire flight.
• If travelers develop any Covid-19 symptoms within 14 days of arriving in Colombia, they must inform the local health ministry representative, as well as the airlines booked or flown. Land and river borders are closed at least until January 16th.

See Entry requirements before planning travel.

UK Residents Preparing To Return to the UK

If a traveler wishes to return to the UK from overseas, he or she must:

• provide his or her journey and contact details before travel
• check if there are self-isolation requirements upon return

Read UK government advice on foreign travel during the coronavirus pandemic and sign up for email alerts for this travel advice.

When travelling to Colombia during the coronavirus pandemic, British nationals are advised to see the Coronavirus page for more information.

During the COVID-19 pandemic it is more important than ever to get travel insurance and verify coverage. See the FCDO’s guidance on foreign travel insurance.

There have been large scale protests in recent months which could recur at any time. These demonstrations can be confrontational and may turn violent. A number of people have been killed and injured. Travelers should remain vigilant, avoid all demonstrations, and monitor local media for the latest information.

The UK government is of the opinion that “terrorists are very likely to try to carry out attacks in Colombia.” The security situation can change very quickly in many areas of the country. All travelers should pay close attention to warnings issued by the Colombian authorities.

Additional Information From The UK Government

Despite high levels of crime, most visits to Colombia are trouble-free. See Crime

For British abroad who need emergency help from the UK government, contact the nearest British embassy, consulate or high commission. Consular support is limited in parts of Colombia where the British government advises against all but essential travel and areas where there is a limited state presence. When consular support is unavailable, the British Embassy will liaise with local authorities to request assistance.

To contact emergency services, call 123 (in Spanish).

UK health authorities have classified Colombia as having a risk of Zika virus transmission. For more information and advice, visit the website of the National Travel Health Network and Centre website.

The Overseas Business Risk service offers information and advice for British companies operating overseas on how to manage political, economic, and business security-related risks.