Health authorities are urgently calling on everyone in Colombia to get vaccinated against yellow fever starting at nine months of age, including individuals over 59 years old. Between September 2024 and now, 75 confirmed cases and 34 deaths have been reported nationwide, representing a cumulative fatality rate of 45.3%.

Confirmed cases are distributed across nine departments: Tolima (59 cases), Putumayo (7), Nariño (2), Caquetá (2), Huila (1), Vaupés (1), Cauca (1), Meta (1), and Caldas (1). Fatalities associated with the disease have been recorded in eight departments: Tolima (23 deaths), Putumayo (5), Caquetá (1), Nariño (1), Caldas (1), Cauca (1), Huila (1), and Meta (1).

Yellow fever is a viral illness transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes. Initial symptoms within the first 24 hours can include fever, headache, and general malaise. In the subsequent 72 hours, symptoms often intensify with gastrointestinal manifestations such as vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. From the fifth day onwards, signs like jaundice (yellowing of the skin and eyes) and bleeding may occur, which can be fatal in unvaccinated individuals. The disease is highly preventable through vaccination, with a reported fatality rate ranging between 40% and 50%.

Colombia is implementing an urgent, free, door-to-door vaccine program to prevent the gruesome disease from spreading via mosquitos.

Since September 2024, the National Government has implemented a series of strategic actions to control the spread of yellow fever and protect public health:

• Intensified Vaccination Strategy: The age range for immunization has been expanded to include individuals from 9 months of age and older, with mass mobilization efforts in affected municipalities.
• Strengthened Epidemiological Surveillance: Over 20 rapid response teams have been deployed for active community case finding and field investigations. Entomovirological, pathological, and laboratory surveillance has also been reinforced through the national reference laboratory of the National Health Institute (Instituto Nacional de Salud).
• Expanded Primary Care: More than 100 Basic Health Care Teams (Equipos Básicos de Atención en Salud – EBAS) have been activated in municipalities with confirmed virus presence.
• Coordination with Health Promotion Entities (EPS) and Vaccination Networks: Health Promotion Entities (Entidades Promotoras de Salud – EPS) have been instructed to establish and operate vaccination teams in coordination with the public and private healthcare network in all affected territories.
• Territorial Coordination through Unified Command Posts (PMU): Twenty-two PMU sessions have been held in the department of Tolima, one in Caldas, and one at the national level, involving local, departmental, and national authorities. Additionally, an extraordinary session of the Risk Management Committee was convened in Huila.
• National Communication and Education Campaign: An information and education strategy has been activated to promote vaccination, self-care, and vector control nationwide.
• Clear Technical Guidelines for the Health System: Circulars with precise instructions for all actors in the national and territorial health system have been issued, disseminated, and technically supported.

The outbreak has demonstrated a progressive expansion, particularly in areas of the Amazon basin, the Magdalena River valley, and departments such as Meta, within a short period. Cases have also emerged in territories with no historical records of the disease, such as the municipality of Neira in Caldas, located in the coffee-growing region.

While urban transmission of yellow fever has not been reported in Colombia since 1929, there is a potential risk of re-emergence due to the frequent entry of individuals into enzootic areas—where the virus circulates in its sylvatic cycle through Sabethes and Haemagogus mosquito species—and their subsequent movement to urban zones below 2,200 meters above sea level, inhabited by urban cycle transmitting species such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Epidemiological monitoring has identified cases in populated centers and urban peripheries of municipalities with low population density, indicating a risk of expansion into larger urban centers. Given this scenario, vaccination remains the most effective tool for controlling yellow fever. Analysis of fatal cases has shown that the deceased individuals were unvaccinated, underscoring the urgency of increasing vaccination coverage. Territorial entities must prioritize immunization of the entire population over 9 months of age in high-risk municipalities and strengthen the intensification strategy in the rest of the country.

The Minister of Health and Social Protection (Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social), Dr. Guillermo Alfonso Jaramillo, stated, “With the declaration of the yellow fever emergency, we are intensifying actions to protect the entire population. Our Basic Health Teams, totaling more than 10,000, continue to travel to vaccinate all people in the most remote areas of the country, especially in high-risk zones. The vaccine is free, safe, and administered in a single dose, at least 10 days before entering risk areas.”

The Minister also added that door-to-door campaigns, vaccination drives in educational institutions, transportation terminals, military and police facilities, and other collective spaces will be strengthened. Furthermore, mosquito control measures will be reinforced, and immediate access to healthcare services without barriers will be guaranteed.

Considering the above, and within the framework of the declared health emergency, the following measures are adopted at the national level to contain the yellow fever outbreak, protect the lives of the population, and ensure a coordinated response from the health system:

• Mass Vaccination: A national mass mobilization will commence in high-risk municipalities and extend to the rest of the national territory. The vaccine is free, safe, administered in a single dose, and should be received 10 days before entering risk areas. Strategies will include door-to-door campaigns and vaccination in educational institutions, transportation terminals, military and police facilities, and other collective spaces.
• Integrated Vector (Mosquito) Control: Actions to control mosquitoes in homes, communities, healthcare facilities, and high-traffic areas such as market squares and terminals will be intensified. Mosquito nets will also be distributed in high-risk rural areas.
• Immediate Deployment of Basic Health Teams and Rapid Response Teams: These teams will play a crucial role in case identification, community education, epidemiological monitoring, and vaccine administration, bringing services closer to the most vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations.
• Centralized Management of Health Services: Regional Emergency and Disaster Centers (Centros Reguladores de Urgencias y Emergencias – CRUE) will assume control of the availability of Intensive Care Units (ICU) and patient transfers.
• Obligations of Health Promotion Entities (EPS): EPS are required to allocate all necessary technical and financial resources through their public, private, and mixed networks to guarantee vaccination, prevention, and care for their entire affiliated population. Prior authorization from EPS for the provision of health services is not required.
• National Hospital Alert: A yellow hospital alert is activated throughout the public, private, and mixed healthcare network nationwide. This will be elevated to orange alert in municipalities with human cases and, if justified, to red alert, based on the analysis conducted by the territorial entity with the support of the Ministry of Health and the National Health Institute.
• Mobility Restrictions: Local authorities may implement access restrictions to areas with active virus transmission, following established protocols and in coordination with police forces. The protection of medical personnel during these operations will be guaranteed.
• Requirement of International Vaccination Certificate for Travelers: In compliance with the International Health Regulations, international travelers entering the country may be required to present a yellow fever vaccination certificate. The vaccine must have been administered at least 10 days before entering risk areas. (This measure will be adjusted based on World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations to avoid impacting tourism and trade).
• Culture of Prevention: Citizens are urged to adopt self-care measures, eliminate mosquito breeding sites in their surroundings, and seek timely vaccination. In particular, residents of municipalities located below 2,200 meters above sea level are advised to use insect repellent, mosquito nets, and clothing that covers the skin as personal protection measures against the yellow fever transmitting mosquito.
• Risk Management Committees: Departmental, district, and municipal territorial entities located in high-risk areas will convene risk management committees to adopt comprehensive control and risk management plans.

The director of the National Health Institute, Diana Marcela Pava, reiterated the duty to protect the health and lives of Colombians. “The measure to declare a health emergency was subjected to a rigorous risk assessment exercise, which is an internationally validated process to establish the level of risk the country is facing,” explained the director, adding that “thanks to this exercise, the measures announced by the Ministry of Health were taken.”

The Vice Minister of Public Health, Jaime Urrego, stated, “This emergency has a preventive emphasis. The vaccine saves lives, and this emergency reminds us that we must take extreme precautions. There are two key points: the change in the behavior of the disease and the risk of urbanization, especially in municipalities below 2,200 meters where we must vaccinate the entire population. We are not seeking to generate fear but to act jointly with experts to stop yellow fever.”

The General Secretary of the Ministry of Health, Rodolfo Salas, affirmed, “Colombia is a social state governed by the rule of law, where the right to life and health prevails. According to Article 69 of Law 1753 of 2015, the Ministry of Health and Social Protection is the competent governing body to declare a health emergency in the event of epidemics that endanger the public health of the country. This virus is showing rapid transmission, so we call on the competent authorities to take the necessary measures to prevent its spread.”

The Ministry of Health and Social Protection calls for the shared responsibility of all actors in the health system, territorial authorities, and the community in general to confront this emergency and protect lives.

Information for Travelers and Individuals in Risk Areas:

Yellow fever is transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes. These mosquitoes typically bite during the day. For travelers and residents in areas below 2,200 meters above sea level, especially those in the departments with reported cases, the following precautions are recommended:

• Vaccination: The yellow fever vaccine is highly effective and provides lifelong protection with a single dose. It is recommended to receive the vaccine at least 10 days before traveling to or residing in risk areas. The vaccine is available free of charge in affected municipalities for individuals over 9 months of age.
• Insect Repellent: Use insect repellent containing DEET.  Follow the instructions on the product label.  
• Protective Clothing: Wear long-sleeved shirts, long pants, socks, and shoes when outdoors, especially during peak mosquito biting times.
• Mosquito Nets: Use mosquito nets (bed nets), especially if sleeping outdoors or in unscreened accommodations. Permethrin-treated nets offer additional protection.
• Eliminate Mosquito Breeding Sites: Regularly empty and clean containers that can hold water, such as flowerpots, tires, buckets, and pet water dishes, around your home to prevent mosquito breeding.
• Seek Medical Attention: If you develop symptoms such as fever, headache, body aches, nausea, vomiting, or jaundice, especially after being in a risk area, seek medical attention immediately. Early diagnosis and supportive care can improve outcomes.
• International Travel Requirements: Travelers entering Colombia from countries with a risk of yellow fever transmission may be required to present an international certificate of vaccination against yellow fever, as per the International Health Regulations. It is advisable to check the latest requirements before traveling. Similarly, travelers departing from Colombia to certain countries may also need proof of vaccination.

The current health emergency underscores the importance of vaccination and preventive measures to mitigate the risk of yellow fever transmission in Colombia. Residents and travelers in affected areas should adhere to the recommendations of health authorities to protect themselves and prevent further spread of the virus.

Photos © Loren Moss

This increase has been observed over the last months of 2024 and the first weeks of 2025. In total, 61 cases of yellow fever were confirmed in 2024, with 30 resulting in death. This number exceeds the 58 reported cases of yellow fever, including 28 deaths, between 2022 and 2023 in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. In January of this year, 17 additional cases were reported, with seven deaths.

While in 2024, cases were mainly concentrated in the Amazon region of Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Guyana, and Peru, in 2025, the disease has begun to spread to areas outside this zone, particularly to the state of São Paulo, Brazil, and the department of Tolima, Colombia. Peru has also reported a fatal case. PAHO warns that other countries could also be affected.

Yellow fever is a serious viral disease that can be fatal, especially in its more severe form. This increase in cases highlights the urgent need to intensify efforts to prevent the spread of the virus, strengthen clinical management (with an emphasis on early detection and treatment of severe cases), and improve epidemiological surveillance in high-risk areas.

PAHO reminds that vaccination remains one of the most effective tools for preventing and controlling yellow fever. In 2024, most of the cases reported were in people who had not been vaccinated. In this regard, PAHO urges countries to continue strengthening their vaccination programs and to take appropriate measures to inform and protect travelers heading to high-risk areas.

Given the changes in the patterns of virus transmission, PAHO stresses the need to maintain active surveillance, particularly in areas near affected zones, to detect any suspected cases early and ensure timely isolation and treatment.

Key recommendations:

• Enhanced surveillance: Rapidly detect any suspected cases, even in areas not traditionally affected.
• Universal vaccination: Ensure that at least 95% of people in high-risk areas are vaccinated.
• Laboratory diagnosis: Conduct virological diagnostics via PCR during the first 7 to 10 days of illness, or ELISA IgM in the convalescent phase, with careful interpretation due to cross-reactivity in areas with other circulating flaviviruses.
• Clinical management: Strengthen early detection and specialized monitoring of severe patients as a key measure to save lives.
• Preparedness for outbreaks: Review and update the national and subnational vaccine inventory to plan a rapid emergency response.

Since 1970, yellow fever has reemerged as a public health threat in the Americas. The disease is endemic in 13 countries and territories in the region, causing outbreaks and deaths. In 2014, the virus spread beyond the Amazon basin. Some attribute this spread to changes in the interaction between monkeys, mosquitoes, and humans.

A list of zones at high risk for yellow fever in Colombia is available on the Colombian Ministry of Health’s website: https://www.minsalud.gov.co/Regiones/Paginas/-Viajeros,-a-vacunarse-contra-la-fiebre-amarilla-.aspx

Actions to Take:

• Avoid travel to Huila, Colombia.
• If traveling to Huila, Colombia consult your medical provider for advice on proper precautions to take when traveling to a zone with high risk of yellow fever.

As a courtesy to readers, this message has been reprinted in its entirety as issued by the US Embassy in Bogotá.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Bogota, Colombia
Tel. +57-1-275-2000 or 601-275-2000
acsbogota@state.gov
https://co.usembassy.gov/

U.S. Consular Agency, Barranquilla
conagencybarranquilla@state.gov

U.S. Department of State – Consular Affairs
1-888-407-4747 or 1-202-501-4444

Colombia Country Information

Enroll in Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive security updates

Follow the embassy on Facebook and Twitter

CDC’s Order requiring proof of vaccination for non-U.S. citizen nonimmigrants to travel to the United States is still in effect.

Actions to Take:

• Review country-specific COVID-19 entry/exit requirements on the Embassy’s COVID-19 information page. https://co.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/
• In accordance with CDC guidance, delay your travel if you test positive for or have symptoms of COVID-19.

Assistance:

• US Embassy Bogota, Colombia
  Tel. +57-1-275-2000 or 601-275-2000
  acsbogota@state.gov
  https://co.usembassy.gov/ 
• US Consular Agency, Barranquilla
  conagencybarranquilla@state.gov
• US Department of State – Consular Affairs
  1-888-407-4747 or 1-202-501-4444
• Colombia Country Information 
• Enroll in Smart Traveler Enrollment Program  (STEP) to receive security updates
• Follow the embassy on Facebook  and Twitter 

Additionally, all travelers, including Colombians and foreign visitors must present a negative COVID-19 PCR test result, issued within 72 hours before the time and date of boarding the cruise vessel.

View the Ministry of Health’s Resolution 2383 (Spanish) by clicking here.

The proof of vaccination must be presented either in paper format or digitally, and the certificate must include the individual’s full name, date of vaccination, name of the vaccine administered, and the number of doses administered.

Consult the following link for a list of the COVID-19 vaccines accepted for entry to Colombia: https://www.minsalud.gov.co/sites/rid/Lists/BibliotecaDigital/RIDE/DE/COM/lista-vacunas-covid-19.pdf

These entry requirements are in addition to – and do not replace – the existing “Check-Mig” requirement for both inbound and outbound travelers. All travelers must complete the online Check-Mig form between 72 hours and 1 hour prior to arrival in, or departure from, Colombia. Carry a print-out of the form and be ready to show the electronic version on your mobile device at Colombian immigration.

Photo: Loren Moss

The following categories of events/businesses are among those that will be required to enforce this requirement:

• Restaurants
• Bars
• Movie theaters
• Dance clubs
• Concerts
• Casinos
• Sporting events
• Amusement parks
• Museums
• Exhibitions/trade shows

Specific locations and restrictions may vary based on local guidance provided by cities and departments.

Guidance issued by the Colombian Ministry of Health clarifies that proof of vaccination may be either physical or electronic and that those vaccinated outside the Colombian system may show documentation from wherever the vaccination was received.

Actions to Take:

• Carry proof of vaccination with you to gain admission to events and in the public venues listed above.
• Those who received a vaccination in Colombia can download a digital vaccine certificate from mivacuna.sispro.gov.co.
• Those who received a vaccination in the United States, or another country, can present any document that demonstrates proof of vaccination.

Significant portions of this article were compiled by communications issued by the US Embassy in Bogotá.

Reconsider travel to Colombia due to COVID-19. Exercise increased caution in Colombia due to civil unrest, crime, terrorism and kidnapping. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory.

Finance Colombia notes that air travel to Colombia’s major cities and tourist destinations is generally safe for tourism, family visits, and business travel, though travelers should always assess their individual circumstances. 

Read the Department of State’s COVID-19 page before you plan any international travel.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a Level 2 Travel Health Notice for Colombia due to COVID-19, indicating a moderate level of COVID-19 in the country. Your risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing severe symptoms may be lower if you are fully vaccinated with an FDA authorized vaccine. Before planning any international travel, please review the CDC’s specific recommendations for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers. Visit the Embassy’s COVID-19 page for more information on COVID-19 in Colombia.

As a service to readers, this message has been reprinted in its entirety as issued by the US Embassy in Bogotá.

Do Not Travel to:

Arauca, Cauca (except Popayán), Chocó (except Nuquí), Nariño, and Norte de Santander (except Cúcuta) departments due to crime and terrorism.

Reconsider Travel to:

Several departments throughout the country due to crime and terrorism.

Country Summary: Colombia is experiencing continuing demonstrations, unrest, and disruptions throughout the country. The nationwide events can cause the shutdown of local roads and major highways, often without prior notice or estimated reopening timelines. Road closures may significantly reduce access to public transportation and airports and may disrupt travel both within and between cities. Several cities have seen vandalism, looting, and destruction. Demonstrations have resulted in fatalities and injuries across the country.

Violent crime, such as homicide, assault, and armed robbery, is common. Organized criminal activities, such as extortion, robbery, and kidnapping for ransom, are widespread.

While the Colombian government signed a peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) terrorist group, some dissident groups refuse to demobilize.

The National Liberation Army (ELN) terrorist organization continues plotting possible attacks in Colombia. They may attack with little or no warning, targeting tourist locations, transportation hubs, markets/shopping malls, local government facilities, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, parks, major sporting and cultural events, educational institutions, airports, and other public areas.

US government personnel cannot travel freely throughout Colombia for security reasons.

Read the country information page.

If you decide to travel to Colombia:

• See the U.S. Embassy’s web page regarding COVID-19.
• Visit the CDC’s webpage on Travel during COVID-19
• Avoid protest areas and crowds.
• Monitor local media for breaking events and adjust your plans based on new information.
• Keep a low profile.
• Be aware of your surroundings.
• Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency.
• Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter.
• Review the Crime and Safety Reports for Colombia.
• U.S. citizens who travel abroad should always have a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist.

Arauca, Cauca, Chocó, Nariño and Norte de Santander Departments – Do Not Travel

Violent crime, including armed robbery and homicide is widespread.

Terrorist groups are active in some parts.

The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to US citizens as US government personnel cannot travel to these areas due to security concerns.

Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas.

Several Departments throughout the Country – Reconsider Travel

Reconsider Travel to:

• Antioquia department north of Medellin
• Caquetá department
• Casanare department
• Cesar department outside of Valledupar
• Cordoba department outside of Montería
• Guainía department
• Guaviare department
• Meta department
• Putumayo department
• Valle del Cauca department outside of Cali and Palmira area
• Vaupes department
• Vichada department

Violent crime, including armed robbery and homicide, is widespread.

The US government has limited ability to provide emergency services to US citizens as US government personnel cannot travel to these areas because of security restrictions and limited domestic travel options.

Visit the state department website for Travel to High-Risk Areas.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Bogota, Colombia Tel. +57-1-275-2000 or 601-275-2000 acsbogota@state.gov https://co.usembassy.gov/     U.S. Consular Agency, Barranquilla   conagencybarranquilla@state.gov     U.S. Department of State – Consular Affairs   1-888-407-4747 or 1-202-501-4444

Fully vaccinated travelers will continue to be required to show a pre-departure negative test taken within three (3) days of travel to the United States prior to boarding.  This applies to all travelers – U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents (LPRs), and foreign nationals.  To further strengthen protections, unvaccinated travelers – whether U.S. citizens, LPRs, or the small number of excepted unvaccinated foreign nationals – will now need to test within one day of departure.  Additional information may be found on CDC’s website.
Passengers will need to show their vaccination status, and airlines will need to:

• Match the name and date of birth to confirm the passenger is the same person reflected on the proof of vaccination.
• Determine the record was issued by an official source (e.g., public health agency, government agency) in the country where the vaccine was given.
• Review the essential information for determining if the passenger meets CDC’s definition for fully vaccinated such as vaccine product, number of vaccine doses received, date(s) of administration, and site of vaccination (e.g., vaccination clinic, healthcare facility).

Airlines must deny boarding to passengers who do not meet these requirements or those who test positive for COVID-19.

For additional information or if you have specific questions, please contact your airline and visit the CDC’s website.

Actions to Take:

• Monitor the CDC website for the latest guidance regarding testing requirements.
• Check with your air carriers or travel representative prior to departure for the United States.
• Check COVID-19 Country Specific Information pages for updated information on COVID-19 related to the availability of testing.
• Visit travel.state.gov to view individual Travel Advisories for the most urgent threats to safety and security.
• Visit the Department of Homeland Security’s website on the latest travel restrictions to the United States.
• Click here for our Travel to the U.S. FAQs.

Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Bogota, Colombia
Tel. +57-1-275-2000 or 601-275-2000
acsbogota@state.gov
https://co.usembassy.gov/

U.S. Consular Agency, Barranquilla
conagencybarranquilla@state.gov

U.S. Department of State – Consular Affairs
1-888-407-4747 or 1-202-501-4444

Colombia Country Information

Enroll in Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive security updates

Photo courtesy Minsalud

________________________________________

Against this backdrop it might appear odd to be quibbling about the lack of overseas investment in Colombia however that is what I am here to do.

Earlier this week we had the equity market flows for March, a month when the index lost 3%, and we find that foreigners, whilst continuing their healthy participation at 34.8% were almost the largest net sellers. Now $30mn is not the end of the world however given the poor performance of Colombia versus its peers over the past 12 months it is just a tad perplexing.

Above (courtesy of our chums at Bloomberg) we find a basic chart, in dollars, of what has happened among the Latam indices since COVID made its way into our lives. Put simply, Colombia has been the worst performer, only marginally versus a couple of cases but versus the rest, it is miles behind.

If we strip out the best performer Chile, which despite forging ahead of the rest of the region in terms of vaccines and also having seen copper prices recover dramatically, is currently fully locked down – there is an argument in most cases that Colombia should be doing at least as well as the rest.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Brazil is the closest to Colombia in terms of returns but is currently tracking at 4,000 deaths per day with no light at the end of the tunnel, Colombia’s COVID strategy may not have been Utopian but it is also well ahead of our southern neighbor. Likewise, Mexico where 60% more deaths were suddenly discovered – or Peru where the situation is still very delicate. Those three countries are all in the Top 20 globally in terms of deaths/1000 and in a region where (Chile apart) the vaccine roll-out is sluggish to say the least.

So let’s say Colombia has some issues – fiscally the numbers don’t add up so we need a tax reform, the publication of which has been delayed again by politicking, the ratings agencies have been making veiled threats for the past six months and we have a potentially messy election in just over a year – are we really 22% behind Peru, or 30% worse than Mexico or 37% less attractive than Chile in terms of performance.

This is not just a Colombia problem, Latam has issues as a whole. It has lost weighting versus both Asia and EMEA over recent years – China would be a huge part of that switch – and its general COVID performance has been stand-out in the wrong way. Many argue that with China building out its own economic backyard in Asia, the US will now potentially have to look to Latam as its own backyard, that remains to be seen but in the meantime, there is unquestionably value to be found here in Colombia, especially in dollars.

Fortunately, many of the local stocks have recovered from the high shock that saw global markets collapse in March 2020, but others haven’t and are trading well below those levels. To point out just a few: Grupo Sura (-28%), Grupo Argos (-25%), Ecopetrol (-24%) – the local economy may have a long way to go but there is unquestionably value to be found.

________________________________________

For those who do look closely – change is upon us as the MSCI has now joined forces with the bvc to create the MSCI COLCAP index which will be going live in less than two months on May 28.

The first preliminary index, subject to change of course before it is finalized, has been published, and there will be new names, as well as others disappearing, as Colombia adapts to the MSCI methodology. Grupo Exito will not, as it stands, be part of the index, but Grupo Bolivar will make an appearance, there are also adjustments to other weightings.

This is all part of the internationalization of the Colombian market, the MSCI is clearly a strong partner in this, and it will hopefully draw more attention to a market that has underperformed notably over the past 12 months.

________________________________________

That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops

A week or so ago I made mention of a post-Easter COVID spike, similar to that seen after Christmas, but there was really not need to wait, after deaths dropped below 100, they have already got themselves comfortably about that barrier once again and there are already some restrictions in place for the coming festival – but word is they are about to get tougher.

Not for the last time this morning I will use Chile as a benchmark – a country that has already surpassed the UK with its vaccination level (as a percentage of population) – is already locking down in order to avoid ‘vaccine complacency‘. Colombia has a bad dose itself of that complacency even though its vaccination program is moving very slowly in comparison. This is a high stakes game in terms of both lives and the very economic future of Colombia – at this juncture the Chilean model would be far preferable to follow that other regional peers, namely Brazil and Mexico, who appear to be making it up as they go along.

The Peso is under pressure and yesterday fell to 3680, passing through an important support level, traders do not see much support this side of 3800 – again the COVID situation is highlighted as one, not the only, reason.

The dollar is strong against many EM currencies however given the recovery of oil prices above the $60 level over recent months, it is disappointing to see the Peso still struggling. The Central Bank left rates at 1.75% last week, which should have helped somewhat, however still it slides. The committee also re-iterated their positive outlook for growth in 2021 with a 5.2% estimate – this is above both the FinMin and World Bank (who raised estimates yesterday) who are at 5%. Whilst it is one of the better growth rate estimates from WB with Brazil at 3% & Mexico at 4.5% it is still below Chile (5.5%) & Peru (8.1%) – these are competitive times in Latam and given the global competition for investment especially from Asia, Colombia is going to have to work hard for the money.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Colombia’s COLCAP* is also struggling to attract investors despite the combination of weak YTD performance in Peso terms (-8.14%) and the Peso weakness which means for overseas investors that assets are very cheap. We have even been outperformed by Brazil (-3%) and Mexico (+8%) despite their indifferent COVID performance (I am being polite here) and modest growth outlook.

One of the reasons quite clearly is the fiscal situation – Colombia simply doesn’t have the deep pockets that Chile, Brazil and Mexico do, the reasons as to why is for another day, but that is the reality and there is a lot of ‘wait and see’ in terms of the tax reform and the fiscal rule. The ratings agencies are watching the government and investors are watching them. The tax bill is going through its ‘socialization’ process before being officially published – but soon we should have the full details. There has been plenty of leakage of items, VAT, wider tax base, less loopholes etc, but until we see what is presented in black and white, it is all speculation.

*Note yesterday the MSCI formally published their methodology for the new MSCI COLCAP index which will go live in a couple of months *

https://www.msci.com/our-solutions/indexes/index-profiles/market-cap-weighted/msci-colcap-indexes 

Tapping into this are the May 2022 elections. More and more column inches are being taken up with polls, interviews, speculation, and gossip as to who, might, might not, will, should and shouldn’t run next year. Amongst them are those, from both sides, who have criticized the reform, even before seeing it – as being a hammer that will crush the emerging middle class – this remains to be seen but if 60% of the reform gets approved the government will have done well. I am not sure who would play the Underwoods but the Colombian Congress will be a ‘House of Cards’ over the coming months.

But – it has to get done. Colombia’s much admired Fiscal Rule has been jettisoned for the next couple of years, it is an unfortunate casualty of COVID, and that is a shame as overseas investors on realizing it was a RULE not a GUIDELINE, were always impressed by the discipline that accompanied it. Hopefully, it will be back in place sooner rather than later.

Here I will be signing off for a few days, eating chocolate eggs and hoping that Colombians can maintain their discipline over the coming week in order to avoid the kind of lockdowns that are being implemented across much of Europe and the rest of the world. 

That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops