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	<title>The Banco de la República &#8211; Colombia &#8211; Finance Colombia</title>
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	<title>The Banco de la República &#8211; Colombia &#8211; Finance Colombia</title>
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		<title>What Jumps Out: Pause?</title>
		<link>https://www.financecolombia.com/what-jumps-out-pause/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rupert Stebbings]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Feb 2025 11:54:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[OpEd, Expert, or Guest Contribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Catatumbo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cocaine route]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coffee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Colombian migrants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística - DANE Colombia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eln]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[farc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gustavo Petro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latam countries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Banco de la República - Colombia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Peso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[usa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[venezuelan border]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[what jumps out]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[YTD deficit]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.financecolombia.com/?p=32031</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Banco de la República may cut rates by 25bps to 9.25% amid falling inflation....]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a href="https://www.banrep.gov.co/es">Banco de la República &#8211; Colombia</a> will sit down, and the committee is behind the curve in terms of lowering rates when compared to the collapse in inflation, we can expect some caution. The consensus is a 25bps cut to 9.25% however could we see no move?</p>
<p>The rationale or excuse is the uncertain fiscal situation as the authorities struggle to balance the books, and also this week&#8217;s developments with the USA. It&#8217;s a tough call as the fiscal situation has been a constant for the past year and the fact that the Peso closed Thursday at $4170, its strongest in several months, suggests fears related to Donald Trump, shared by half the world, are overstated.</p>
<p>For the Central Bank, this will be the last meeting before two governors are replaced by Petro&#8217;s picks &#8211; the February meeting will arguably draw a lot of attention for that reason.</p>
<p>Petro&#8217;s perceived belligerence at the beginning of the week when dealing with the treatment of returning Colombian migrants, is now being viewed as a reasonable humanitarian request. It will hopefully embolden other Latam countries to demand the same basic respect from the USA.</p>
<p>November imports from <a href="https://www.dane.gov.co/">Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística &#8211; DANE Colombia</a> rose 13.7% to $5.8bn, more evidence of a recovering economy however with exports still struggling somewhat, the YTD deficit now stands at $9.9bn, higher even than the $9.1bn for the first 11 months of 2023. Exports at least are being helped by coffee, with new record high prices this week.</p>
<p>Catatumbo remains a mess on the Venezuelan border and the government is still struggling to wrangle control back from the ELN and FARC, who are fighting over this lucrative cocaine route.</p>
<p>About it for this Friday, have a wonderful day.</p>
<p>Regards.</p>
<p>Roops.</p>
<h4>Never miss Rupert’s latest commentary.<br />
Follow him now on LinkedIn to see <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/rupert-stebbings-927b6316a/recent-activity/all/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What Jumps Out</a>.</h4>
<p style="text-align: right;">Headline Image: Coffee beans from Don Elias finca in Salento, Colombia. (Credit: Jared Wade)</p>
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