Please email submissions for the speaker program to paul.corresponsal@gmail.com

For interest in exhibition stands and sponsorships to direccion@eme2.co

See coverage of previous years’ events here: https://www.financecolombia.com/search_gcse/?q=colombia+gold+summit+paul+harris

Click on the above image to see the video.

Finance Colombia: So I’m here with Sergio Guzmán. It’s always good to see you again, my friend. I think since the last time I saw you in person you were a bachelor, so I want to congratulate you on your recent marriage.

Sergio Guzmán: Thank you.

Finance Colombia: So that’s always a good thing. And we’re back here at CGS 2024, the Colombia Gold Summit, as originally known. Now, of course, it has expanded, and it covers copper, and it covers silver. A great event put on every year by Paul Harris and his organization. Sergio, we’re in a time right now where we are two years into the current administration, and I know that you are a specialist in political risk. And you got up, and you opened the session talking about the different challenges and the risk that we have. Now, we see that there are some concerning trends when it comes to crime and insecurity, but then we also have political uncertainty. Some other presenters talked about the growth and lack of growth in the sector.

Tell me about- if you could just briefly, within 30 seconds or so, recap the message that you gave this morning when it comes to the political risk for the mining sector.

Sergio Guzmán: Absolutely. Well, I think if we look at political risk in Colombia in general, it’s doing much better than the government’s antagonists expect.

And much worse than the government proposes. And so it’s somewhere in between. The truth is usually somewhere in between. Colombia is not a country that’s in an active coup d’état, but it’s also not a country that is a haven for investment and great opportunities. What is true, I think, is something that I’ve tried to get across: Colombia is not for the faint of heart. It’s a country that needs to be explored and analyzed meticulously and not just looked at from a surface level. So if people are interested in investing here, if people are serious about long-term opportunities here, they need to do their homework.

Finance Colombia: Let’s talk about this, and I don’t want people to panic or anything like that, but there has been an uptick in insecurity. We look at things in the north of Colombia, the Urabá region, also down around Tumaco and things like that. Have we seen a material effect on crime and insecurity when it comes to mining development?

Sergio Guzmán: I think three things are going on at the same time. The first one is that insecurity in urban areas is getting worse. The perception of insecurity is also getting worse. In parallel, the government is trying to negotiate simultaneously with nine different armed organizations, right? And that’s led to a bilateral ceasefire and a relative cooling of some fighting between the government and these armed groups. And then the third, and I think you know, many of these armed organizations no longer depend exclusively on drugs as the principal source of income. Now, they’ve diversified their portfolio, so to speak. They have illegal mining, they have human smuggling, they have extortion, right?

And so Colombia’s violence is becoming more complex, much more interwoven into global illegal economies. And, of course, the mining sector can’t choose where it operates; it has to operate in the areas where there are resources. And so, in some of those areas, there are specific local dynamics of crime that need to be addressed or need to be mitigated. Then, there are also interwoven elements that correspond to these insurgent groups or criminal organizations and insurgencies that also need to be understood well. All in all, I think the perception of violence and the perception of crime are getting worse in Colombia. The capacity of some of these groups is improving, and the intent to target, you know, has remained unchanged. However, some of these bilateral ceasefires have created a relative calm in that we haven’t seen, you know, major kidnapping events, or major terrorist attacks against critical infrastructure, as there used to be back in the day. So I think, you know, it’s a mixed bag. It’s not as positive as the government would want it to sound, but it’s also not chaos.

Finance Colombia: You know, I’ve seen where companies have had success when they go in and work with the local people, not just rely on the politicians in Bogotá, but they’ve come in first and engaged with the local community to make sure that the populace is on their side. There’s a talk going on right now about how mining companies, big commercial mining companies, can work with artisanal miners rather than compete or have a conflict with them, but work kind of in the form of symbiosis.

What advice would you give to mining operators if they’re looking at maybe either taking on a project in Colombia or looking, obviously, with the long-term vision? What is the best strategy that you’ve seen work to mitigate the different types of risk, the political risk, the physical risk, and then, of course, the financial risk of their investment?

Sergio Guzmán: I think in your question, you sort of framed the answer as well. I think having a long-standing, positive and collaborative working relationship with local communities is the best security, both in social terms and security terms, that companies can have. If the local actors perceive that the company is 1) there to stay, 2) will help strengthen their economy, and 3) will not, you know, go away and leave them hanging when things get tough. Those are three elements that the local community will stand up for the company when things go south. And those are three elements that the company needs to work with a very, very intentional mindset from the very beginning of the exploration.

Finance Colombia: You are, in my universe, the foremost expert on risk, and you have your consultancy firm, I know that you have a founding partner, but Colombia Risk Analysis, how can people find out–I know that you have a website, and you have both kind of free summaries and then also more in-depth report. Give people an idea of how they can communicate or how they can find out more about Colombia Risk Analysis.

Sergio Guzmán: Absolutely. People can find out about Colombia Risk Analysis by going to our website, www.colombiariskanalysis.com. All our socials are @ColombiaRisk, and we offer both subscription services for the general person that wants to understand, to more bespoke conferences or reports that can be written according to whatever a client wants, both in English and Spanish. And I think that’s something that makes us unique in Colombia as well.

Finance Colombia: Sergio, it’s always great to talk to you.

Sergio Guzmán: Thank you so much, Loren.

CGS also highlights corporate responsibility, with not just token representation, but environmental, social, and governance issues woven throughout the agenda. One area of longstanding emphasis has been the participation of women in mining at all levels from labor to management and board representation.

Finance Colombia publisher Loren Moss was able to catch a moment with a very busy Paul Harris during CGS 2024 to talk about the event’s impact, relevance, and success for Colombia, Latin America, and the mining sector.

Finance Colombia: I’m here with Paul Harris at CGS 2024. Paul, I’ve been attending your events now I think for almost 10 years. They continue to be the most important precious metal mining events in Colombia; but you’ve also expanded now and you cover Ecuador, Mexico and different countries. Tell me, what has been the key to your success for you and your whole team? I know it’s not just you, of course, but Colombia Gold Letter, your publication, and then also your events team.

Paul Harris: Well first off Loren, thank you very much for the kind words. But I think a big part of it is the fact that I’ve been in the sector, in and around the sector for 28 years, and over that period of time I’ve got to have a certain level of understanding about the gold sector, about the silver sector, about the copper sector…and that fed into the programming of the events. You know, identifying good speakers, both in terms of the content and their ability to communicate, because at the end of the day, part of it is—let’s say, entertainment as well. Identifying good speakers, talking on good subjects; picking subjects that are important, or emotive, that are relevant. There’s no fluff in our program, and I think that’s one of the key things.

Finance Colombia: I agree. And one of the things, I learned so much…I mean, it’s funny because I remember when I first started attending, and now I listen and I can understand about half of the things that the geologists are talking about. I understand…I have an investment background, so I understand that side a little bit more. But you get, you know, a lot of events are like, industry parties, or, you know, strictly sales-focused, but there’s so much educational content. A lot of years there are geologists that come in and give classes and things like that. But then, even, you also have a good mix of—And tell me about the importance of this: You have people on the investment side, but then also on the technical side, and I think it’s the only event that I’ve seen that really balances both of those.

“They said to me every year they get contracts here.” – Paul Harris

Paul Harris: Well, I think there’s a couple of things there, with the programming. I put things in the program that I want to know. I’ve got a background as a journalist and analyst, as you know, so I’ve programmed things that I want to find out, questions I want answered, so I tend to find people to do that, and I think that resonates with the audience. Because through that you get that balance of things focused more on the investment side of things, things focused on the technical side of things, because all the communities and environment as well, all of these things are necessary for a successful project. I have questions I want answered on all of those aspects, and so that’s a key part of the program and I think that’s a key reason people attend the event.

Finance Colombia: And another thing that I’ve seen is: I’ve seen you have a lot of support from sponsors. I think it speaks to the value of the event to see the same sponsors year after year. We see people like HD, JC Portal, and I’ve gotten to know some of these people really just kind of through your events. Caterpillar, for example, their local people, and then, of course, the different mining companies: Continental now Zijin, Collective, and Aris, and some of the other ones. Have you gotten feedback as to the value that this event brings to the different sponsors and participants that you have?

Paul Harris: Absolutely. A lot of the sponsors we have that have come year after year, one of the reasons they keep coming year after year—and a great example would be MPX Geophysics, which is now Xcalibur Geophysics; they said to me every year they get contracts here.

They meet with the exploration teams, they talk about what the exploration teams are doing, what their work plan is for the next 12, 18 months. They always go away with a contract, come away with a contract. I’m sure that’s the case for some of our other supply companies that are here, that have participated in the commercial exhibit and sponsor the event.

Finance Colombia: We are in an uncertain time right now in Colombia when it comes to political risk. I mean, it could be a lot worse, it’s not as bad as some other countries in the neighborhood. But still, I’ve noticed that it’s even more important, and I see that not just people on the investment side but on the operational side, they want to come and hear about what’s happening. Sergio Guzmán spoke yesterday, he’s always really good. And I think that it’s been a conduit for information-gathering. Not just learning, but really in staying up to date with the legislative environment, right?

Paul Harris: Well, I think the mining sector is a long-term business. The mining sector manages risk every day, the mining sector is very good at managing risk. People just want to know what the risks are and have clarity on the risks there are. The worst thing for investors is uncertainty.

Investors can manage risk. They can price in risk, but they need to know what the risks are. That’s why we always start the event with an overview, looking at country risk aspects, market risk aspects. And as you mentioned, Sergio from Colombia Risk Analysis does a very good job in breaking that down, telling people what are things to watch out for, and as I’ve mentioned, he’s very entertaining, so he really enables his messages to get across and penetrate very well.

Finance Colombia: Absolutely. As for people who want to subscribe to your publication, which is, as far as I know, the premiere English-language publication focused on gold and precious metals in the Andes, or for people who want to find out about future events, what are the best ways to communicate with you and your organization?

Paul Harris: The simplest and easiest way is probably to email me directly: paul.corresponsal@gmail.com. And we can add you to the mailing list of the monthly Substack, and receive our other publications and announcements.

Finance Colombia: Great. Thanks a lot, it’s a privilege to always be here with you.

Paul Harris: Thank you very much. Appreciate your support, Loren.

Political risk expert Sergio Guzmán is co-founder of Colombia Risk Analysis

China’s engagement in Colombia has significantly increased in the past decade, whereas the country has openly embraced a warmer political and economic relationship with the middle kingdom, its political, diplomatic, and economic institutions are ill-equipped to understand and address the risks this closer relationship entails.

Research firm Colombia Risk Analysis, led by Sergio Guzmán and Alfonso Cuellar analyzed Colombia’s relationship with China, asked business leaders, and conducted a public opinion poll to understand local perceptions of Chinese investment in Colombia, here are some of our findings.

The detailed report, done in conjunction with polling firm Cifras y Conceptos can be accessed in both English and Spanish via the Bogotá-based firm’s website, clicking here.

Colombia Risk Analysis is a political risk consultancy that provides clients with analysis, context and projections about the political, economic and social environment that affects Colombia and the region.

Finance Colombia’s Executive Editor Loren Moss was able to get a few minutes of his time between presentations to discuss the first 100 days of the presidency of Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro: Where things stand, and what we can expect based on what we have seen at the beginning of the new administration. In Colombia, presidents serve for a single four-year term.

Finance Colombia: How much of the peso’s fall can be attributed to macroeconomic factors affecting the whole globe, for example the Ukraine conflict and US Fed actions, and how much would you say is political risk specific to the Petro administration, now somewhat more than 100 days into his term?

Sergio Guzmán: We can’t ignore the fact that global macroeconomic factors affect countries with twin deficits (fiscal deficit and balance of payments deficit) more than they affect countries where only one of these conditions is present. In that regard, Colombia is especially vulnerable to external shocks, and it has been for quite a while – this is not something that started with Petro. However, statements by Petro and members of his cabinet have rocked the confidence of international investors as they add unnecessary noise to the picture.

“It is important for investors to be able to distinguish between the signal and the noise when it comes to Petro and judging by the market reaction, they still don’t have a good read on the government.” – Sergio Guzmán

Petro is right that he cannot be fully blamed for external factors, but as president part of his duty is to calm markets and mitigate risks and judging by the market reaction to his statements, he has not been diligent at assuaging some of the concerns. While Ocampo has acted as a balm to some of the cabinet’s more rambunctious statements, the markets are now looking for stronger statements from Petro himself.

Finance Colombia:  Recently you presented at CGS Medellín, Colombia’s most important precious metals mining summit. What can we tell about Petro’s stance towards the mining sector based on policy actions and statements in the first 100 days?

Sergio Guzmán: Petro was by far the least desired outcome for the sector. However, mining is not a political centerpiece for Petro – the administration is not as anti-mining as it is anti-oil and gas. However, investors seem to be a little more uncertain about the future of their holdings under Petro and may perhaps want to jump the gun. I think it’s clear that Petro wants to replicate some sort of 1970s Import Substitution Industrialization initiative and will think of the mining sector – especially the copper sector, as a likely outcome.

Nevertheless, Petro does not really understand the timelines for mining development from exploration to production. He seems to think that a mine can go from exploration to production within his presidency, which is not true. A copper development could take well over 20 years to become developed and during that span, it may be owned by different corporations between juniors and majors.  I think the mining sector has an opportunity to work with the Colombian government and educate them about the sector and build a roadmap to get to that place together. The issue will be on community ownership and government take – which are vitally important for Petro and the signals he wants to project, but are less important for the sector, keen on keeping equity within a close-knit group of investors.

Finance Colombia:  Petro ran on a strident anti-petroleum platform. Now we hear that the administration may re-evaluate the possibility of issuing new licenses. Is he really changing his stance? What’s going on?

Sergio Guzmán: Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that we will witness the president backtrack on some of his proposals, such as banning future oil and gas exploration for example. As oil continues to be Colombia’s most important export, a strong contributor to foreign direct investment, and a significant source of revenue for the central government, his statements will continue to be problematic. We also cannot expect Petro to sack his Mining and Energy Minister, Irene Velez, despite the fact that she is consistently rated by polls as the least popular member of the cabinet. Petro is not going to give his opponents a clear win while he continues to be largely popular with public opinion.

Finance Colombia:  Here in Medellín, the mayor is asking the Petro Administration for more time on Hidroitiuango. Petro has said EPM needs to evacuate the downstream population before testing the turbines. How much flexibility can EPM expect from the Petro administration?

Sergio Guzmán: The short answer is: we don’t know. The long answer is, the Petro administration has announced it wants the state to play a larger role in energy regulation and that it wants to see lower energy prices for consumers. EPM is one of the country’s leading generators and with Hidroituango coming online it will become the largest energy generator. This means Petro’s CREG has more leverage over EPM than it previously had, considering the fines imposed by the regulator could financially cripple both EPM and the City of Medellin. I would prefer not to speculate, but I assume that whatever decision the government makes on EPM will be contested in the courts and so both leniency and severity will affect the independence of the energy regulatory authority or provide an unfavorable advantage to Quintero.

Finance Colombia: Do we have more, or less risk for foreign direct investment than originally expected when Petro first won the election earlier this year?. Have investors regained confidence, or are they even more worried about prospects in Colombia?

Sergio Guzmán: I think investors are looking at Colombia through a lens of greater risk sensitivity considering geopolitical events. It is likely that some newcomers are easily spooked by overall conditions and political circumstances. However, investing in Colombia is not for the faint of heart or for those with a short-term (annual or quarterly) investment horizon. Colombia is for investors with a long-term perspective (usually decades) who will be well aware that the country has markedly, and positively, made strides to becoming a more prosperous society.

Sure, Petro’s proposals are sometimes misguided and risky bets, but they are not the radical left-wing Chavista proposals that his opponents make them out to be. It is important for investors to be able to distinguish between the signal and the noise when it comes to Petro and judging by the market reaction, they still don’t have a good read on the government. We can help them with that.

Finance Colombia:  Colombia has more than 14 free trade agreements. How much risk is there of Petro blowing these up. The weak peso is already achieving his goal of favoring exports and domestic production.

Sergio Guzmán: Free trade is one of the things that is easy for Petro to bash, but very difficult for him to actually undo. For all the anti-trade rhetoric coming from some of the more radical factions of the government, there have been stern warnings from trade partners that renegotiation of trade terms will be something that takes more time and effort than Petro or Colombia can afford. Petro seems to be looking more for a short-term political victory that he can sell to his voters than a real bargain on trade terms, which will take years of hard negotiations to obtain both in the bilateral or multilateral arena.

Contradictorily, Colombia’s weak currency should be leading to an export and tourism boom but it is not, partly due to the political circumstances, the security situation, and investor concerns. It may be decades before Colombia sees another opportunity to supply Europe with expensive coal or lock in investment for its abundant gas deposits. Petro seems to be squandering a unique chance to finance some of his most iconic social programs, by taking advantage of current market conditions. Sadly, it looks like Colombia will miss out on this occasion.

Finance Colombia:  What changes can we expect, if any in the US Colombia bilateral relationship?

Sergio Guzmán: I think the US has very smartly managed the relationship with Petro trying to find common ground on priorities without antagonizing the government or making commitments to unrealistic proposals (such as revisiting the war on drugs or making strides towards eliminating Colombia’s large foreign debt). However, there are two dangers ahead for the US-Colombia relationship, the first is of course, a new Republican House under the influence of South Florida Latinos may be more antagonistic towards Petro and other left-wing Latin American governments blocking aid or putting up obstacles for Biden to work with Petro and others.

The US Presidential election cycle will start in a year and players like DeSantis and Rubio who have been openly against Petro and others may rise to prominence and make it harder politically for Biden to play ball. The second is Colombia’s geopolitical strategy or lack thereof, could lead Colombia away from the US sphere of influence and much closer to China. At Colombia Risk Analysis, we’re looking forward to studying this last bit more closely during the next few months.

Above photo: Sergio Guzmán (center) answers questions accompanied by Sergio Escobar of Medellín Global (left) and Luis Guillermo Suárez of the Medellín Chamber of Commerce. (Photo © Loren Moss)

“This year in Colombia they have murdered 22 social leaders, there have been 19 massacres. In 2021, within the framework of the protests, the police murdered, disappeared and sexually assaulted hundreds of protesters. The systematic violation of human rights is endless. To complete the shamelessness, Duque is being received with a red carpet in Europe,” said Miguel Urbán Crespo, a radical leftist Member of the European Parliament from Spain.

Indeed during Duque’s tenure, Colombia seems to mirror the popular movie “The Hunger Games” where Bogotá and Medellín, analogous to Districts 1 and 2 from the movie are world class, modern cities complete with luxury housing, advanced health care, and imported delicacies, while much of the country remains without basic services, education, or unlike the Hunger Games, basic security and government protection. The United Nations is very clear that the worsening of conditions is solidly within Duque’s term of responsibility and can’t be blamed on longer term trends. From the UN Global Humanitarian Overview:

In 2021, organized NSAGs [Non-State Armed Groups] have expanded rapidly in peripheral areas of the country, creating an increase in hostilities and violence affecting civilian populations, particularly ethnic minorities. Increased use of explosive ordnance, including improvised landmines, has been reported, particularly in rural areas and regions bordering neighboring countries, where illicit crops and other illegal economies are located. In 2021, indigenous communities have been gravely affected by explosive ordnance, recording a 20 per cent increase in indigenous casualties compared with 2020.¹ The increase in recruitment of minors has also been reported.² 2021 witnessed the highest number of people affected by mass displacements and confinement in the last decade and a continuous trend in confinement affecting more than 113,000 people this year.³

The same report notes that while Colombia is classified as an “Upper Middle Income” country, on the INFORM Severity Index, Colombia ranks as 4.5 / Very High, in other words, a humanitarian disaster. The European Commission’s “INFORM Severity Index is an improved way to objectively measure and compare the severity of humanitarian crises and disasters globally.”

The Duque administration was further embarrassed by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization that listed Colombia as the only country in South America as “Food Insecure and in need of food assistance in 2022” along with South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Madagascar and Yemen. Rather than address the crisis, Vice President and acting foreign minister Marta Lucia Ramirez demanded that Colombia be removed from the report.

The administration didn’t dare protest when two years ago, the United States government said the same thing about Colombia: “Food security needs in Colombia remain high due to internal conflict and periodic natural disasters, as well as the influx of vulnerable Venezuelans and Colombian returnees crossing into Colombia as a result of the escalating economic and political crisis in Venezuela.”

During the COVID pandemic lockdowns, for almost a year there was a general curfew throughout the country, giving police more reason and power to stop and question people out on the roads, but during the pandemic, illicit narcotics exports surged. 1,228 metric tons of cocaine were produced in Colombia in 2020, an increase of 8 percent over the previous year.

Photo of Marta Lucia Ramirez by Felipe Castaño, Vicepresidency of The Republic

It has been difficult to take the Duque administration’s antinarcotics efforts seriously when his own Vice President Marta Lucia Ramirez, the same one who made demands against the UN report on Colombia’s precarious humanitarian situation, also tried to press criminal charges against investigative journalists at Insight Crime who revealed and verified her own family’s ties to narcotraffickers. Her husband had business dealings with now convicted paramilitary narcotrafficker “Guillermo León Acevedo Giraldo, AKA “Memo Fantasma,” and it was revealed that the vice president paid $150,000 to bail out her own brother who was caught and convicted for heroin trafficking.

The attorney general’s office has now revealed that criminal mafias such as the notorious Clan del Golfo have likely infiltrated the Colombian military and law enforcement at the highest levels, including army generals. Had this been revealed at the beginning of Duque’s term, he could claim to be the guy to clean things up, but he is in the final months of his presidency. Even the Catholic church has spoken out against what it sees as actual collaboration between the military and mafias.

“We found in various municipalities that in many places where there is a strong presence of the Army and the public force there is a concomitant presence of the Clan del Golfo,” said Monsignor Juan Carlos Barreto, Archbishop of Quibdó, Chocó “We confirm the seriousness of the humanitarian crisis due to the armed conflict and the abandonment of the state.”

It’s not hard to argue that Duque has been no friend of the campesinos. Criminal displacements—being run off your land or home by armed gangs—has more than doubled in the past year alone. From the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report (translated):

“The number of victims due to mass displacement has increased by 101% between January and May 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Likewise, the number of displacement events has increased by 31%, that is, they have been registered 15 more events in relation to the same period in 2020. So far, only 19% of the victims of displacement in 2021 have returned to their homes, while 81% or 23,837 people remain displaced, due to the impossibility of having a safe return due to the inadequate security conditions that remain in the territory, and in the midst of intersectoral needs that require attention.”

The report goes on to say:

It is worrying that the attacks against the civilian population and that trigger mass displacements are expanding and increasing by 54% to other departments such as La Guajira, Cesar, Arauca, Meta, Guaviare and Caquetá, among others. The increase in homicides and intentional injuries in civilians stands out by 161% and 70% respectively, showing an increase in attacks against civilians in a large part of the national territory.

The security situation under Duque is deteriorating such that criminals are emboldened enough to even attack the Presidential helicopter, as happened last year when the president was arriving in Cúcuta, a city on Colombia’s border with Venezuela. The presidential Sikorsky Black Hawk took six hits from small arms fire.

Colombians at home are unhappy with Duque

Colombia’s ESMAD riot police have indiscriminately attacked journalists, bystanders, and unlucky passers-by caught in the area.

Last year, Colombians took to the streets after Duque’s finance minister, Alberto Carrasquilla sought to raise taxes by expanding Colombia’s income tax obligation to lower income Colombians and taxing basic staples, but in an interview demonstrated he had no idea how much a dozen eggs cost. The abusive response by Colombia’s ESMAD riot police further inflamed the situation.

Yesterday, Colombian polling firm Invamer released results of a poll taken the first two weeks of February that shows only 20% of Colombians approve of his governance, while 73% disapprove. Many Colombians and investors abroad fear a left-wing presidency by former guerilla militant Gustavo Petro, but Duque with his dismal ratings may inadvertently be Petro’s best ally. The same Invamer poll showed that for the first time since 2018, Petro’s favorable ratings at 42 points have exceeded his unfavorable opinion ratings, which are at 40 points. Other presidential candidates’ ratings:

• • Juan Manuel Galán (centrist): 29% favorable, 22% unfavorable
  • Sergio Fajardo (centrist): 25% favorable, 33% unfavorable
  • Ingrid Betancourt (left): 23% favorable, 43% unfavorable
  • Alejandro Gaviria (centrist) 17% favorable, 23% unfavorable
  • Francia Márquez (left) 16% favorable, 8% unfavorable
  • Rodolfo Hernández (right) 16% favorable, 16% unfavorable
  • Federico Gutierrez (centrist) 15% favorable, 22% unfavorable
  • Alejandro Char (centrist) 12% favorable, 32% unfavorable

The Centro Democrático political party controlled by former President and current Senator Álvaro Uribe’s candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga has a favorable rating of 15% and unfavorable rating of 45%, a higher unfavorable rating than anyone except Ivan Duque himself, who cannot run due to Colombia’s single presidential term limit, and former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, who has an approval rating of 21% and unfavorable image of 67%. Uribe was once widely seen as a hero, but his popularity has plummeted as allegations surface of human rights abuses during his administration, and more recent witness tampering and charges of attempting to frame opposition politicians. Uribe spent some time under house arrest due to the charges.

Members of Duque’s own Centro Democrático don’t seem to have much respect for him. “Uribista” senator María Fernanda Cabál was caught in a recorded phone call with a retired military officer sharing her true sentiment toward President Duque:

Uribista senator Maria Fernanda Cabal says Ivan Duque is a “Mamerto.”

“Duque is a leftist liberal, Duque is a mamerto,” says Cabal. Mamerto is a very strong insult in Colombian slang that can translate as idiot, but in Colombia is especially used as a pejorative for leftists, such as historically, sympathizers with the FARC or ELN rebel groups.

The soldier then asks how he could have infiltrated the party. “He didn’t infiltrate us, he was installed by Fabio Echeverri Correa, because Duque was intelligent and applied, and was sent to accompany [chaperone] his lazy son, who isn’t worth a butthole, Luigi Echeverri,” Cabal goes on to say. Fabio Echeverri Correa was a powerful businessman and president of ANDI, Colombia’s largest business trade association. His son, Luigi Echeverri is a friend of President Duque and a member of several corporate bords in Colombia, such as Telefónica Colombia (operating as Movistar), Ecopetrol, and the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce. He was President Duque’s campaign manager, and based on his LinkedIn profile, he presides over an “entity supporting the ideas of f. President Dr. Alvaro Uribe Vélez.”

Needless to say, Maria Fernanda Cabal is not impressed.

“It is that if you have a lazy son and you have money and you want him to graduate, then you invite the most intelligent girl in the class to blow him off. Like when your daughter is ugly, you have to take her with the pretty one to see if she picks someone up,” she continued.

“This guevón worked in Washington all his life and he carried Uribe’s suitcase when he went on a trip, but that’s only when we see the guy.” Guevón literally translates to “big eggs” but is also an insult in Colombian slang, like mamerto: strong words that would tend to start a bar fight if used with a stranger

“He is poison, so [President] Uribe always ends up falling, and we end up fucked because he [Duque] has the flavor of shit…There is nothing to do until he is gone, so I tell you, we win or we are all going to shit,” said Cabal. When the recording was leaked, she doubled down and stood by her words. Duque and Luigi Echeverry refused to respond, with Echeverry saying to simply consider the source, and Duque responding in Latin: “De minimis non curat praetor:” The magistrate does not consider trifles.

Let them eat eggs…and potatoes

Nos llevó el putas! Huevos a más de mil pesos cada uno pic.twitter.com/mNxjmKGsEq

— JUAN CARLOS VILLANI (@JUANVILLANI) February 15, 2022

Last year, the finance minister was lost when it came to the price of eggs. But Monday, a journalist with one of Colombia’s largest media networks was moved to profanity when he encountered eggs in a Bogotá supermarket selling for over $1,030 Colombian pesos per egg, or 26 US cents.

“On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.”

For the record, Duque’s former Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla guessed that a dozen eggs cost $1,800 pesos, or 48 cents. Carrasquilla proposed adding Colombia’s 19% VAT tax to basic foodstuffs like eggs and rice, also to gasoline and funerals, while exempting firearms and sugary soft drinks. Carrasquilla’s answer? “On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.”

Even though Colombia is a petroleum exporting country and petroleum prices have jumped, the Colombian peso is at a near record low, worsening inflation. Potatoes, another Colombian staple, have jumped 140% in prices compared to a year ago. Per capital potato consumption in Colombia exceeds a whopping 79 pounds, or 36 kilos.

The government has announced it is removing import duties on agricultural supplies such as pesticides in an attempt to reduce prices, but any effect will be delayed until future harvests.

Colombian food price increases between December 2021 & January 2022

The Ivan Duque Legacy

While it is far too early for historians to assess Duque’s presidency, it is hard to find economic or social indicators that can justify a positive assessment of Duque’s term.  Duque has promoted relatively investor-friendly policies, but his neglect of everyone outside of Colombia’s investor class has created a possible opening for the first-ever left-wing populist to enter the presidential palace.

Political risk expert Sergio Guzmán is co-founder of Colombia Risk Analysis

“There is a generalized negativity in the country and that favors candidates who show a platform of opposition to the status quo,” said Colombia Risk Analysis co-founder Sergio Guzman. “This drastically improves Gustavo Petro’s chances of not only making it to the second round, but potentially winning.”

Duque has publicly dragged his feet when it comes to implementing the peace accords negotiated under the previous administration, but bitterly opposed by Duque’s political godfather, Alvaro Uribe.

Overall, the Duque administration has seemed to do a competent job managing the COVID pandemic, with some notable fiascos such as his infamous “COVID Friday.” Duque also intervened to assure an insurance settlement between Spanish insurer MAPFRE and public utility conglomerate Empresas Públicas de Medellín, controlled by Medellín’s populist mayor Daniel Quintero.

Ivan Duque is seen buddy-buddy with then-head of the US International Development Finance Corporation Adam Boehler

Duque, who speaks fluent English having spent much of his professional career in Washington, has generally maintained friendly, even fawning relations with Colombia’s traditional allies such as the United States. His administration has been relatively scandal free, defined by the lack of criminal charges filed against his appointees; still, it is early. After Uribe was out of office, some of his political appointees were jailed for corruption, such as Uribe’s deputy transportation minister Gabriel Garcia Morales, and his agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Árias.

On the other hand, Duque’s attorney general and personal friend Francisco Barbosa has been seen by many to do his best making the charges that got Alvaro Uribe arrested “go away.”

Colombian President Ivan Duque does not seem like an evil person or a mean man. He may be a fairly competent administrator in the bureaucratic sense. On the other hand, he has had almost four years to demonstrate leadership and statesmanship in a country with bitter divisions, and promising economic prospects clouded by vast inequality and social stratification where it seems like the rich and poor are living in two completely different countries.

Duque has been impacted by factors out of his control such as the COVID pandemic and the Venezuelan refugee crisis. In both cases, his response deserves some praise. It must also be said that crime and insecurity seem to be on the rise, especially in rural areas beyond the cosmopolitan neighborhoods of Bogotá and Medellín. The extreme poor don’t seem to be any less poor. Colombia lost its investment grade rating under Duque’s administration. The president is left with few friends and many detractors, even within his own party.

On May 29, Colombians will go to the polls to vote for president. If no candidate wins a majority of votes, the top two candidates will go to a runoff on June 19. According to law, the new president will be inaugurated August 7. Things can get worse, much worse. But as Duque’s four year term comes towards a close, there is a practical consensus in Colombia that things could have been much better.

Next week, November 16-17, Colombia Gold Symposium will present a line-up of gold and copper companies providing project updates as well as panels and presentations on country risk aspects in Colombia and Ecuador, including presidential elections, and what they may mean for the sector. Colombia Gold Symposium will host cocktail receptions, a commercial hall with around 20 exhibitors, special one-day geology courses, among other activities.

Within the context of the symposium, Finance Colombia’s Executive Editor Loren Moss had the opportunity to talk to Paul Harris, organizer of The Colombian Gold Symposium and publisher of Colombia Gold Letter, the only publication exclusively focused on gold and copper mining across Colombia and Ecuador.

More information and tickets for the event can be found at ColombiaGold.co

Finance Colombia: Welcome back, Paul. Last year, Colombia Gold Symposium was a virtual event because of the pandemic. Now that we’re finally going back to an in-person format, what new things do you have in store for us this year?

Paul Harris: Thank you, Loren. We’re looking to do a few things differently this year. When we started the planning process at the beginning 2021, we were still uncertain about how the COVID-19 pandemic would play out and particularly how the government’s management of the pandemic would evolve. So we were initially working to get a much bigger hotel and expand the event, but we decided against that this year, instead we tried to be a bit more conservative. However, we did change the location to the Marriott Hotel in Medellín, because it’s recognized as a solid international brand. They take the safety of their international guests very seriously, with strong COVID management methods, but more than that, they’ve got an excellent conference space.

Paul Harris is publisher of Colombia Gold Letter and organizer of Colombia Gold Symposium

But the main thing, the continual thing this year will be the focus on projects. A lot of mining events focus on equipment but without projects there is nothing, everything else is moot. We’ve always focused on the projects, and we’ve got a very strong program this year around copper and gold in Colombia. Another new thing focuses on how inside the industry we understand that miners and explorers do a lot of good things with their communities. It’s becoming part of the DNA of many companies, but not all of that is broadly recognized. So we were thinking, how could we help showcase some of these efforts?

We came up with what we’re calling the Colombia Gold Symposium Economic Development Awards. What does that mean? Well, many companies work with their host communities to stimulate and develop other economic activity that doesn’t necessarily depend on mining. The idea behind that is to provide the community with economic alternatives for when the mine has eventually run its course and been depleted. We developed these awards with an international panel of judges to recognize these efforts. Five or six companies have submitted some of their projects to the panel for evaluation, and we’ll be including an award ceremony in the program, as well as giving the finalists five minutes to talk about their economic development projects.

“This will help us to hopefully open people’s eyes about the good work mining companies do. We want people to look beyond mining and see how many companies go the extra mile for their communities to try and help them along the development curve.”

For me, this is really, really exciting. This will help us to hopefully open people’s eyes about the good work mining companies do. We want people to look beyond mining and see how many companies go the extra mile for their communities to try and help them along the development curve.

Finance Colombia: I think you’re right. You and I have both seen cases where companies have done it the right way, there are other examples of companies doing it the wrong way. Colombia Gold Symposium will have speakers discussing this and many other issues. You always have good speakers, whether it’s political risk experts like Sergio Guzmán and environmental specialists like Brigitte Baptiste or big players in the industry like Ari Sussman. I’ve met some people that have come in as far away as Australia to attend your events, tell me about some of the speakers this year.

Paul Harris: We have delegates coming in from Peru, Chile, Brazil, as well as Canada. The travel situation with Australia is still very difficult, so unfortunately, we don’t really have Australians per se this time. But we do have representatives from Australian companies. We’re continuing another one of our traditions, which is a panel about the regulatory environment and other things around that. We have our regular Colombia law panel or mining regulation panel, as well as an Ecuador mining regulation panel. But we’re doing it slightly different this year, in the past these panels have been quite theoretical. This time, we’ll go through a more practical empirical approach. We’ll have people discussing regulatory issues who have the actual experience of dealing with them. We have a very complete program with a strong value proposition. We want to transfer that value to our speakers, our sponsors, and of course the delegates that join us.

Finance Colombia: I love attending your events. I know your events are always in November, but it seems like some other organizers are throwing everything in November as well this year. That’s disrupting the traditional event schedule. There’s ANDICOM, the big IT industry event in Cartagena, which is normally in June. There is usually no conflict between IT and the mining industry when it comes to these events. This year is different, there’s also the very important ACP Congress, which is the Colombian Petroleum Industry Association, having an in-person event in Bogotá. I also just got back from a major event up in Orlando. It seems like everybody has just now turned on the spigot and that’s good news, but for journalists like me it is complicated to be everywhere. For those who want to attend, how can they find more information?

Paul Harris: Of course, I think you’re right. Now that events can happen again, people have been keen to put them on. For us though, it’s a little bit different because as you mentioned, we’ve always put this together in November. Back in January, February, we started having people asking us, are you going to be putting on an event this year and will it be an in-person event? So obviously we’ve been able to answer yes to all of that. The event has become a calendar feature, and the response has been amazing, and people really do want to meet in person again.

That’s been the overwhelming takeaway. We’re very happy and proud to be, one of the choices for people in order to meet again like that. In our website Colombiagold.co, we included details about the program, including the speakers, geology courses and the economic development awards that I just mentioned. We have a section there showing the entries of the community programs of the finalists.

Finance Colombia: I know it’s going to be a great event. I’m not a mining expert, I’m not a gold expert, but every time I go, I come away feeling like I learned a bunch. This is a really important event; I’ve come across foreign ambassadors and people from the Colombian government there before. This is definitely an event that people need. They can even easily travel to Colombia, a country for which you don’t even need a COVID test to secure entry. I’m just thrilled to see that it continues to progress and grow. You and I will stay in touch, and I am already reserving my calendar for next year.

Paul Harris: That’s great news Loren, and just to go back to some of your comments. The Australian embassy has a delegation coming, the Canadian embassy is bringing in a trade mission from Ontario. We have the president of Colombia’s National Mining Association giving a keynote speech, and Colombia’s Deputy Mining Minister Sandra Sandoval giving a keynote on the second day, so yes, very high level. It’s going to be very interesting.

Finance Colombia: Great. I look forward to hearing about it and to report on the proceedings.

Paul Harris: Excellent. Thank you very much, Loren.

Photos: Loren Moss

As the video is in English, it appears not directed at Colombians, but at influencing his image in the eyes of foreigners. Under 3 years of Duque’s presidency, Colombia has experienced multiple cases of police abuse, record levels of cocaine production, a rash of massacres, and a rise in targeted killings of social and political activists.

Many political analysts are already accusing right-wing Duque of handing Colombia over to left-wing politicians based on his ineptitude, failure to execute, and tone-deafness. Duque’s prosecutor has already filed dubious charges against Colombia’s possible centrist candidate, Sergio Fajardo, in what appears to be an attempt to politically crippling the former Mayor of Medellin, leaving a right-wing candidate, possibly from Duque’s own party, and far-left former revolutionary Gustavo Petro.

“US Audiences know what this feels like, they know what it IS like,” said Sergio Guzman, co-founder of consulting firm Colombia Risk Analysis. “After George Floyd & Black Lives Matter, and using the military to clear Lafayette Park, American audiences connect with Colombian protesters much, much more!”

Colombian Anger With President Duque’s Administration Boils Over Into National Protests & Violent Confrontations With Riot Police

While Colombians initially protested Duque’s tax reform package that sought to expand income tax collection to those making well under $1,000 per month, the deadly reaction of Colombia’s riot police ignited emotions and invited many who might support a tax package to turn against the government’s violent response, and broader issues such as their failed vaccine rollout, ineptitude in the face of rising crime, and clear failure to sell policies to the public, or implement those it has initiated.

Now Colombia has lost its investment grade foreign currency rating, and the world has become largely appalled at the Duque Administrations response. His presidential legacy in tatters, Duque now seeks to convince the external world that “It’s not my fault, my opponents don’t like me!”  But Duque has to answer for the past three years and the legacy he has created. The police violence and cases of abuse, the historic record cocaine production, the failed implementation of the peace process, the lack of availability of COVID vaccines, the failure to protect social leaders.

Nobody Likes Ivan: Understanding The Nationwide Protests & Unrest In Colombia

The report touches on everything from the COVID-19 Pandemic, the implementation (or lack thereof) of the historic 2016 peace accords, political corruption, and who might run for president in the next election.

The report’s co-author Cameron Wilson took time to speak with Finance Colombia executive editor Loren Moss about the many points covered by the report, including what to expect in the second half of Colombian President Ivan Duque’s term.

Finance Colombia: I’m here with Cameron Wilson, who along with Sergio Guzman, just completed an in-depth report on Colombian president Iván Duque’s midterm performance, his challenges and opportunities for the remainder of his administration. Cameron, thank you for joining us.

Cameron Wilson: Thanks for having me with you.

Finance Colombia: Let’s get into this fascinating in-depth report, obviously guys you spent a lot of time on it. First tell me a little about your background and how you came to be affiliated with Sergio and Colombia Risk Analysis.

Cameron Wilson: I grew up on the US east coast in Connecticut, and at the moment I’m a student at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is one of the handful of policy schools that people go to study international relations, economics, do some language training, it’s called SITES for short, it’s in DC, and it’s part of the community of Georgetown, Columbia, Harvard Kennedy School, and I wound up with Sergio because I was looking for something to do over the summer, like a work experience. This pandemic has upended all of our lives, I was going to be in Bogota for 12 weeks or so, basically helping this company with the product they put out on a monthly, sometimes a weekly basis, then I did some translation work as well, and that’s how I ended up with Sergio, looking for that opportunity over the summer.

Finance Colombia: Good, well it’s obviously a first-class report, let’s start into it. Colombia is a politically polarized country, you have a group of hard-left politicians and their supporters, you have a group of hard-right politicians and their supporters, and then you have a large maybe non-aligned electorate that seems to largely be fed up with both camps. So, can Duque get reelected in short and how? If he can.

Cameron Wilson: Well, to clarify, I think you’re probably asking more if a right-wing candidate can get reelected given that now presidents cannot be in consecutive terms, which is sort of an interesting wrinkle. In Colombian politics he could run again in the future, but not in 2022. He’d have to sit out and run again in 2026, I guess would be the earliest possible opportunity. But that seems very unlikely at the moment, given his approval ratings are at historically low levels and over the next two years it’s hard to view a scenario in which he will be able to attract more favorable public opinion, even if he somehow reaches out towards the middle from his sort of hard-right party, the Centro Democrático (political party established by former President Alvaro Uribe) so at this point it seems like a long shot that even if he would stand to reelection in 2026, or frankly that even his party would have even the successful side in the next presidential election.

Finance Colombia: We already saw one Centro Democrático senator announce that she was going to run, is there a chance? Could Uribe conceivably run? (Editor’s note: This interview was conducted shortly before Uribe was detained under house arrest on witness tampering charges)

Cameron Wilson: Well, I think that at the end of the second term back in 2010, there was a little legal wrangling over his ability to run again, and popular as he might have been at that moment, I think by and large Colombians were glad that he couldn’t stand for a third term, so he cannot run for a third term and also, the days of, like even president Juan Manuel Santos having two consecutive terms, those days are over as well, now for presidents to stand for a second term it has to be a non-consecutive term.

Finance Colombia: You know, I am here in Medellín and Uribe still has quite a considerable base of supporters.

Cameron Wilson: Yeah, it seems like his supporter base, for the most part, is socially conservative, a little bit older and probably had more experience with the massive disruption that was long-standing in the insurgency, on the lives of Colombians everywhere, and I’m sure you and most people that have seen this episode are sort of familiar with his biography, but that played a big role in his early life, and for better or worse the Colombian electorate now is sort of younger, the average age is around 30, and  so as we move on, one thing that sort of emerges is that the new population has less and less experience of the hardship that was caused, and that might be one reason why Uribe and his party’s demand for  retribution, there may be a little bit more discomfort with a transitional justice scheme for FARC dissidents, all of that makes them more uncomfortable in a way that’s less common for the people of my age I must say, and it’s only going to continue to be that way.

Finance Colombia: It sounds almost like you’re mirroring like the situation with Cuban-Americans in Miami, where there’s a generational divide between the older generation of Cuban people, who escaped, suffered first, and then maybe their children, the older generation had more of an emotional attachment, I think there’s a younger generation that seems to be more flexible, but they’re not necessarily pro Castro, but they don’t have the emotional role in his response, and are open to at least some kind of dialogue, even though that doesn’t mean they’re normalizing relationships or anything like that.

Cameron Wilson: You know, I don’t have any experience with that community, I haven’t been to Cuba in the way I’ve been to Colombia, but it sounds very similar, that’s interesting.

Finance Colombia: Yes, I think there’s a difference because I think you have people here, and I talk to people, even neighbors and if they’re older, let’s say older than 50, and they lived in those troubled times, then they have maybe especially—it also depends on if they were put in a rural area as well, because maybe Uribe, or the military or the government of that time came in cleaned up where you lived…or maybe they came and cleaned OUT where you lived, right? And so you can have a completely opposite perspective on things, if you look at the still unresolved case of a false positive and things like that, and even, really right now this week is the Supreme Court where he is under a legal cloud, and potentially facing charges, it’s hard to imagine where that might go, but it’s not like the view of him as a hero or savior is universal, even though there are some that definitively strongly believe that the base of the Centro Democrático party is made up of those supporters I would think.

Cameron Wilson: Yes, and I think that his approval ratings upon leaving office were 75-80% something like that, and now they’re down the 30%, and he might not care, people in this party might not be that bothered by his slide and approval ratings but I think part of that goes back to what you’re saying is experience of condensing the 80’s and the 90’s and even before that, is sort of fading into memory for people who are my age or college students, you know, and as long as the average age of the electorate for the country stays around 30, that’s not going to get reversed.

Finance Colombia: How is President Duque handling the coronavirus pandemic? He seems to be butting heads with Bogota’s Mayor Claudia López.

Cameron Wilson: In comparison to his counterparts in my country and  other parts of Latin America  You might say it is a admirable job in the sense that president Bolsonaro in Brazil  is being willfully ignorant of the science, and some people would say that AMLO (Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador) in Mexico has been the same way, and other people would say that president Trump is also adhered to that: “let’s not listen to experts or the science and also not recommend social distancing.” But at the same token, most of the earliest and strongest calls for lockdowns, for social distancing, for masks, were from Colombia’s mayors and not from president Duque, so in comparison to them it looks like he’s a little bit slow, and a little bit reckless even, but compared to his counterparts out of the country you might say “oh wow he’s sort of responsible, he’s been advocating for wearing masks, he puts his hand sanitizer out on his desk every night. So, he’s doing an okay job I suppose, to mention the crisis for the managing the health effects if you will, you know that people would argue about his economic response but that’s a separate question.

Finance Colombia: It’s an interesting phrase, “sort of responsible.” I don’t know if they want to make it a campaign phrase, but it’s interesting, I think that was seen doing an OK job until the COVID Fridays, as they were calling the “Dias Sin IVA” down here, the day without sales tax, especially the first one that turned into a fiasco, and stores were being shut down for overcrowding and then a resultant spike in the cases and now we see that we’ve gone from and a thousand deaths in over ten thousand deaths in the space of a month.

Cameron Wilson: I saw the images were from that, I guess there was that day and another one two weeks later and the footage was shocking, you know?

Finance Colombia: It was. It left an impression, economically obviously he’s under a lot of pressure, the economy is contracting, Colombia being a tourist country, tourism is completely shut down, the restaurants are closed except for carryout or delivery, the airlines, Avianca is obviously in bankruptcy as is LATAM, there are with two small exceptions there is no passenger air traffic, so he is under a lot of pressure I think, but a lot of people are saying the Claudia Lopez is already campaigning for president based on her response, and I don’t know if that’s honest, or cynical, or both, but she does seem to be a lot less conciliatory than she was during her campaign, and as the Mayor of Bogota she certainly does have a considerable megaphone. The Vice President, Martha Lucia Ramirez is not having so good of a year, is she?

Cameron Wilson: Well you said, I used an interesting phrase, “sort of responsible?” Well, “not having such a good year” is an interesting phrase in that context, yeah! On one hand, one thing that sort of dragged her down a few months ago was this revelation that she paid bail for her brother in Miami back in the 90’s. Her brother was convicted of some drug trafficking, I think it was heroin, and it was sort of a small amount, I want to say that there was like $150, (Editor’s note: She paid $150,000 bail for her brother) so it wasn’t—it didn’t rise to the scale of some corruption, but on the other hand, nobody knew it, it wasn’t in the public sphere until this time, and she’s had sort of a long career, right? She’s a little bit older than Duque, she’s been in the public eye for quite a while, and another thing that happened, sort of recently that if her very close followers of the country would have noticed, she threatened to file a lawsuit against Insight Crime.

Finance Colombia: She did bother, she filed not just a civil lawsuit, she filed criminal charges against Insight Crime in June, but Jeremy McDermott instead of going quietly, went public with the charges, which were widely condemned by journalists and human rights organizations, and I would imagine the many foreign governments that fund Insight Crime as well to be completely honest.

Cameron Wilson: And she’s backed down since then, right?

Finance Colombia: She’s retracted, but the thing that’s amazing is that even though she filed charges, her husband admitted the facts of McDermott’s story, which was interesting. That seemed to be a dumb move politically, because, it’s not that he published anything false. That’s not even a judgment call, her husband confirmed that they did the deal with this Memo Fantasma, you know this paramilitary narcotrafficker guy, and the interesting thing is that…Now, the Insight Crime reporting never accused the vice president or her husband of doing anything illegal or even unethical, they bought a lot from some guy, and you know, if you buy a house, you don’t necessarily know much about the people who sell you the house, right? It’s kind of surprising that they handled that so badly politically, but I think that what came to light is the kind of pressure and bullying that can take place when people are used operating in impunity, and don’t expect that scrutiny, right?

Cameron Wilson: Yes.

Finance Colombia: I notice that you guys listed as a potential candidate Pacho (Francisco) Santos, you think he might actually run?

Cameron Wilson: I think before the trouble that he found himself in last fall, I think you would have said that for sure, he would have run. To be clear he found himself in hot water when a recorded conversation from a restaurant in DC was made public by a Colombian newspaper, and he said some unflattering things about the US State Department, which might compromise his role as the main go-between Colombia’s government and the US, and so, to clarify, before that, which was last fall you would have said “yeah, he’ll for sure run” and he’s had an ambition to that for a while, and he’s been involved in Colombian politics for a while, and he lives in the right circles, you know, it’s quite a small group of people.

Finance Colombia: Yes.

Cameron Wilson: At the top of Colombian politics to begin with, and then, you know, amongst the different segments: Right, Center-left, Center, Center-right, you know the circles are even smaller and part of it is that there’s so few families and that the men go to the same high school in Bogota. So, you know, so he sort of checks all the boxes, and he for sure has still an amount of ambition, and I think that to a lot of observers, the question would be: “well what does Uribe want?” Basically who does Uribe think are the most attractive candidates for his party the next go round…the party has a history of pushing forward a few candidates, and sort of seeing which one happens to capture the imagination of the electorate that year, and for sure Pacho Santos would be in that conversation, if you will, but it’s a little bit hard to say that he, for sure, isn’t the guy.

Finance Colombia: You know, another possibility that you guys floated that really intrigued me was at Mauricio Cardenas, the former Finance Minister, who is very well respected and even liked, but he hasn’t—and maybe that this is by design, or by his personality—but he’s never really come across as a politician and that’s not to say he’s not a political operator, but he, as far as I know, he’s never held political office, he’s more of a technocrat, isn’t he?

Cameron Wilson: He’s an economist basically. There is one argument, or one school of thought that a technocrat might be able to steer clear let’s say of some of this, like tug-of-war politically back and forth, and some of that might be why a candidate like (Sergio) Fajardo is like “oh, I’m just a professor” you know, “I’m not cut from that same sort of cloth,” and so there’s an argument that perhaps would be able to navigate that dynamic a little bit better, and since he hasn’t really played that game to this point, he hasn’t spent his career criticizing the opposition that if the party, if the sort of conservative side of Colombian politics wanted to nominate a candidate, one that wasn’t so hard line one that might capture the middle of the electorate, he may be a worthwhile person for them to put forward.

Finance Colombia: I think that the hard part for him, not being a politician, is you can run into the same dangers of inexperience: Look at Daniel Quintero, here in Medellín, the mayor who seems like a nice enough guy but he’s already gotten himself in some hot water, making some politically inept moves.

Cameron Wilson: There’s some truth to that in the hard choices that they might advocate, you know, and I think that debate you’re talking about, there is a little bit playing out right now within mainstream economics. There’s a lot of what would be formerly like radically left economic ideas that are being connected in the policy right now, universal basic income, you know, debt levels that scare people, maybe less than they would have been in  the past, but certainly it’s like unknown territory and it’s kind of frightening  for some people who have a hard time looking past what they were taught if they were going to University of Chicago 30 years ago. And yes, that tug of war is going on within economic trade now. I mean, is it irresponsible for governments to keep subsidizing wages, implementing layoffs, even if it runs up the national debt? Some economists would say “just do it, press the button and go for it,” you know, “what are we so scared of, the only thing worse would be not doing anything.”

Finance Colombia: Everybody loves (John Maynard) Keynes and nobody loves (Herbert) Hoover in a recession, right? 

Cameron Wilson: Right, yes, so that debate of whether economists are always bringing bad news or not is sort of like what’s playing out right now in the news every day.

Finance Colombia: Good point, good point, so, where go from here? We’re a little bit past, I think halfway in Duque’s term or in the middle of a covid-19 coronavirus pandemic that’s hitting Colombia hard, other countries worse, but it still is significant here. The economy is contracting because of this and the economic contraction exacerbated by the collapse and demand for petroleum, well below Columbia’s lift cost, that’s to say the price to get out the ground into the refinery or into the pipelines is higher than the actual cost of petroleum right now, and we don’t see that bouncing back anytime in the short term, and that’s an important source of revenue for the Colombian government, so it leaves the president with fewer levers to pull.

Do you see him in the second half of his term distancing himself from his political patron Alvaro Uribe or will he cement a legacy as a faithful acolyte and beneficiary of his patron?

Cameron Wilson: Yes, well, the fundamental question is to sort of steer the country through this crisis, it is going to require him leaving behind some of the main policies of the Centro Democrático and a big part of that is the sort of commitment to fiscal responsibility, that I sort of alluded to just now, in the way the economists might be fighting with each other about what to do, so if he’s to adhere to this, you know, sort of more orthodox fiscal management, that is a tenure of his party and his finance minister adheres to, and that’ll be him, you know, being loyal to Uribe, to Uribismo, but also letting the country flounder a little bit longer, and people might think it is ideal, and if he is to continue to lift public spending and extend subsidies that have been given to people, extend the subsidies that have been given to businesses, that’ll be him moving towards the center and shepherding the country, towards what most observers would say is a more responsible way, and our expectation is that he’s probably not going to do that. So far in his presidency he’s been largely loyal to Uribismo. Part of that has been close ties to the business community, closer than some people might feel good about, and you can see that in how he opened the economy for two days for everybody go shopping in the middle of this pandemic, and part of that commitment has also been in this idea to sort of drag your feet, slow down the progress of the peace accord, so he’s been loyal to this point and therefore we don’t have a lot of reason to expect he’s going to move towards the middle.

Finance Colombia: Interesting, and I think that that might be the biggest danger to his legacy, is the post peace accord implementation, and whether you like it or not, whether you agree with it or not if you look at the increase in danger for social leaders for indigenous Colombians and people that are not even necessarily political actors or not even necessarily natural political opponents. I think it would be hard to argue anything other than negligence on the part of the government to protect non-combatants and even if you’re: Let’s suppose you’re anti-FARC, or which, I think a lot of people except for the FARC are anti-FARC, let’s suppose you’re anti-peace accords but then you have members of the FARC who say “Ok, we’re going to leave the FARC or we’re going to not be combatants anymore, we’re going to stop,”  and the government says “okay, we’re going to put you in this place and get you reintegrated in society, but then they go and get massacred, that doesn’t really—even if you don’t like the peace accords, if you don’t like the FARC, the last thing you want is people to go back and rearm themselves, so I think it’s kind of beyond comprehension other than just incompetence, or are there some kind of designs behind purposefully letting these people get slaughtered? I mean it would seem that the only reason behind not protecting people is to drive them back into arms.

Is it just negligence or is there a political motivation behind the foot dragging, not necessarily to implement faithfully every little bit of the peace accords because that might even be too much to expect politically, but in the negligence, or the apparent negligence and the lack of production in the increase in danger to even non-political non-combatants, indigenous leaders, social rights, people who are advocating non-political things?

Cameron Wilson: I think it is both of these things, I think with regards to the FARC, there’s no willingness to follow through on the provisions to provide them with the successful reintegration, and so it that looks like in the short-term is to build resettlement camps that have, schools and reasonable health care, and it took them a long time to get running water in a couple places and also put the camps in places that are safe, that aren’t close to still violent groups of people, and to provide them with protection, so there’s clear negligence to not follow through on all those promises.

With regards to the violence, the insecurity that’s confronting people, that’s affecting people who are not part of the FARC but who are in rural areas, who are agitating for clean water, roads, schools, electricity, basically an extended, expanded state presence. Part of the problem there is, I think, a bit of negligence, a little bit of, well, I think this is going to start to benefit participants in some kind of ways, but also another part of it too is this is the sort of long and hard and boring and challenging work that it’s going to take 10 to 15 years even in the best-case, because these areas are so remote that to expand the state presence requires a tremendous amount of patience, and if there’s one thing Colombia is lacking, even between a lot of the larger cities is good transportation, it’s sort of a weak spot of the country if you like.

Finance Colombia: True.

Cameron Wilson: That’s sort of like the long and hard and dirty work that’s going to take a long time no matter what but they’re not helping, they’re not sort of pushing that as aggressively as they could be, and in the meantime, while the state presence is sort of lacking in these areas, you’re talking about how social leaders, broadly speaking, people agitating for improvement in their security and economic conditions in all these areas, they’re sort of out in the wind so to speak without any help from government or without any protection and 100% it’s negligence.

There’s nothing else than negligence, that’s sort of leaving them so vulnerable, and in some cases more vulnerable during the lockdown because if they were targets before but maybe they were evading their attackers or evading pressure, this lockdown made it frighteningly easy to know where people were, and that’s just to say that they’re putting up with all kinds of threats and pressure and violence that they shouldn’t have to and I think that the government has no good reason to allow that to continue or not to make more efforts to prevent it.

Finance Colombia: Insightful. One last question, you were a professional PGA golfer. Is there any good golf in Colombia?

Cameron Wilson: I didn’t expect to get asked that! Yes, there is. One of the sort of unfortunate parts of golf in Latin America is that it happens to be confined to the very highest strata of society, and golf is sort of an affluent game all over the place but there’s public golf all over the U.S., it’s accessible, maybe not accessible enough but it’s accessible and in Colombia there are just private golf courses, and so as nice as they might be, and I’ve been to a few of them in Bogota, Medellin, and as beautiful as they might be, one of the things that I wish was different about golf in Latin America is that it was accessible to everyone. But you know, maybe that will change someday, I’m not hopeful about it but maybe it’ll change.

There are some beautiful clubs, and I think the consensus would be that the best one in Bogota would be called Los Lagartos, which has two golf courses in the middle of the city, and then another popular spot is called Country Club de Bogota, and that’s a cool place with a couple of nice golf courses and some cool amenities as well: bowling alleys, squash courts, clay tennis courts, a soccer field. That’s kind of an interesting spot with lot of other fun activities, but yeah, I wasn’t expecting to get asked that, so thanks for digging up my past!

Finance Colombia: No, I’m a tennis person myself, I’m not a golf person, but being born and raised in the same hometown of Jack Nicklaus, he’s just a giant and actually his firm designed the Karibana Golf Course up in Cartagena. I’m not really a golf player so I haven’t played the course, but I’ve been to Conrad Karibana by Hilton Resort and it’s a really lovely facility. I was there right before the pandemic started and I hope to go back reasonably soon, as soon as it’s safe to maybe play some tennis, but I was really impressed with their facilities, I don’t know if you played that course but it looked really nice.

Cameron Wilson: In my prior life, when I was playing golf professionally I wound up going to Colombia four times and I played an event at TPC Karibana, when it was brand new, in the spring of 2015, I think it was maybe like March of 2015, and it was beautiful, it’s an amazing spot and hopefully it’s a place where Colombians can go to enjoy some of their time, well they already go to Cartagena all the time, but hopefully it sort of adds one more thing to the city that will attract people and also it’s a really easy place to get to for Americans, it’s a couple hours from Florida, and you know, if anybody has hesitations or some concerns about going to Latin America and going to Colombia, which they shouldn’t by and large, but that’s a really great introduction to what can be so great about spending some time in the region.

The charges stem from a two year-old investigation of evidence that Uribe had been trying to convince witnesses to retract statements they had made tying him to paramilitary groups.

Current President Ivan Duque, who owes his political existence to Uribe, quickly came to Uribe’s defense:

“It hurts as a Colombian that many of those who have lacerated the country defend themselves in freedom or, even, are guaranteed never to go to prison, and that an exemplary public servant, who has held the highest dignity of the State, is not allowed defend themselves in freedom, with the presumption of innocence.”

Other “Uribistas” as his defenders and (Uribe’s political party) Centro Democratico partisans are called were organizing this afternoon to take to the streets, despite Coronavirus COVID-19 curfew restrictions. Uribe’s base of supporters is not large nationally, but it is fervent, especially in his home turf of Medellín and the rural areas to the east of the city. The mayors of Bogotá and Medellín have within the last two hours warned that such protests are prohibited due to the Pandemic.

La privación de mi libertad me causa profunda tristeza por mi señora, por mi familia y por los colombianos que todavía creen que algo bueno he hecho por la Patria

— Álvaro Uribe Vélez (@AlvaroUribeVel) August 4, 2020

Above:  Uribe announces his detention via Twitter, saying “The privation of my liberty causes me profound sadness for my wife, for my family, and for the Colombians who still believe that I have done something good for the country.”

Colombian analyst Sergio Guzmán of Colombia Risk Analysis says this is really big: “I mean Uribe is Colombia’s most powerful person, his arrest is likely to suggest that political polarization in Colombia is going to increase substantially during the following two years. Whereas President Duque had a very significant legislative agenda to include issues like pension reform, labor reform, potentially tax reform and healthcare reform, all of it is now likely to take a back seat to a potential reform to the judicial system brought by the ruling party.”

It is certain that the judicial branch will be under intense political pressure, especially with an Uribista, President Ivan Duque occupying Casa de Nariño, Colombia’s presidential palace. “Obviously this also puts the independence of the court’s legitimacy into question, because of the political contours of the case.  However, I think it is important to remember that this case and this arrest is not something that puts into question Uribe’s role in the past 20 years in Colombia. Rather of specific events dealing with a judicial case where there is allegedly substantial evidence to back up the court’s decision, adds Guzmán.

Background

Uribe’s father was killed in 1983 by communist FARC guerrillas near Yarumál, Colombia. Uribe as president was widely hailed domestically and internationally for breaking the back of the FARC militarily, but also entering into a peace accord with anti-FARC paramilitaries. Both the FARC and the paramilitaries, or “paracos” have been responsible for a large portion of Colombia’s narcotics industry. After the paramilitaries signed their peace agreement, many simply continued as apolitical (but generally pro-Uribe) mafias to this day.

Uribe’s popularity began to decline after the candidate he supported as his successor, Juan Manuel Santos refused to act as his puppet after gaining the presidency and went his own way. Santos, who as Uribe’s defense minister was famed for directing some of the most successful actions against the FARC signed a peace agreement with the FARC, which infuriated Uribe and his Centro Democratico militants. Santos eventually received the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.

The witness tampering charges stem from a 2018 investigation into allegations that Uribe through his lawyers were pressuring witnesses that had testified under oath that while governor of Antioquia, Uribe was one of the founders of the AUC’s (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or Colombian Self-Defense Force—the paramilitaries) Bloque Metro. Uribe resigned his post as senator, then immediately retracted his resignation. Uribe’s brother Santiago Uribe is awaiting judgement for forming the “12 Apostles” death squad, and for the 1994 murder of Camilo Barrientos. His trial concluded in January of this year, but the judge has yet to hand down a sentence or exoneration.

The witness tampering charges have roots that date back eight years ago, when Uribe accused a Colombian senator, Ivan Cepeda, of bribing witnesses and generally concocting a conspiracy to tie the ex-president to paramilitary-related crimes. The Supreme Court eventually dismissed Uribe’s accusations against his colleague and later began probing into whether it was in fact Uribe who has been illicitly tampering with justice through witness manipulation.

Juan Guillermo Monsalve is a former paramilitary who grew up on the Uribe family’s “Guacharacas” estate near Yarumal, Antioquia; 3 hours northeast of Medellín. He testified that Uribe’s family was allied with the paramilitaries, but now claims Uribe lawyer Diego Cadena pressured him to change his story, and make up the accusation that Uribe nemesis, Senator Iván Cepeda told him to lie. Uribe denounced Cepeda, but the court became suspicious of the story and it both absolved Cepeda and began to investigate Uribe and his lawyer Diego Cadena.

See also: Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, 2 Sons Are Infected With Coronavirus COVID-2

Another witness, originally called by Uribe as a defense witness, Carlos Enrique Velez Ramirez also testifies that Diego Cadena made various payments to him in exchange for testimony.

Diego Cadenas, Uribe’s attorney admits to giving the money to Vélez “as a humanitarian act.” Cadena now faces his own charges, indicted last week for offering 200 million pesos (just over $53,000 USD) and legal representation to both Vélez and Monsalve if only they would change their testimonies to Uribe’s favor. Cadenas is also under house arrest.

There is a rouge’s gallery of other witnesses and relevant figures, many of them already serving prison time. The defense strategy of Uribe and Cadenas so far seems to be that the key witnesses are conspiring with Ivan Cépeda, though they can’t seem to explain their own payments, or why right-wing paramilitaries would want to conspire with Cepeda of the far-left Polo Democratico party (not to be confused with the right wing Centro Democratico). Just as problematic is that the whole scandal originated with Uribe’s allegations against Cépeda.

With the country polarized and politically divided, one thing can be certain: Uribe’s core of Uribista supporters will stand by him no matter what he is convicted of or how conclusive the evidence is against him. This case will grip the country and either outcome: guilty or not, will shock some portion of the population. Observers will be watching how President Duque handles having his patron & political godfather on trial during his presidency.