Colombia’s grocery bills changed little in June, according to the latest Grupo Cibest (NYSE: CIB; BVC: CIBEST) Food Prices Monitor, prepared by the economic research team at Bancolombia. The report estimates that total food inflation came in at -0.02% month-over-month for June 2026, a figure consistent with an annual food inflation rate of 6.12%.

“We estimate that total food inflation will come in at -0.02% month-over-month in June 2026. On an annual basis, this is consistent with food inflation of 6.12%.” — Bancolombia economic research team, Food Prices Monitor, June 2026

The monitor tracks short-term movements in staple commodities that carry a high weight in the food component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It combines purchasing activity captured in neighborhood stores and small grocery outlets by Servinformacion with wholesale price data from Colombia’s main food markets, reported through the Sistema de Información de Precios y Abastecimiento del Sector Agropecuario (SIPSA, the agricultural price and supply information system) and published by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE, the National Administrative Department of Statistics).

Meat prices split by category

Within the protein basket, beef prices rose in June while poultry and pork fell. The largest monthly gains were in prepared meats, up 2.4%, and beef, up 0.47%. The steepest declines were in pork, down 1.46%, and poultry, down 0.74%.

Monthly price change by protein category, June 2026. Source: Grupo Cibest / Bancolombia, Food Prices Monitor.

Tubers and onions climb as plantains retreat

Fresh produce showed mixed dynamics. The largest monthly increases were in arracacha, yam and other tubers, up 19%, onions, up 12%, and potatoes, up 6.3%. Moving the other way, plantains fell 8%, blackberries dropped 3%, and vegetables and legumes eased 1.51%.

Monthly price change for selected fresh produce, June 2026. Source: Grupo Cibest / Bancolombia, Food Prices Monitor.

Seasonal correction across processed and perishable food

The report points to a moderation in price dynamics across both the processed and perishable food components. Bancolombia’s team expects processed foods to post a monthly increase of 0.15% in June, 14 basis points lower than in May, which implies an annual inflation rate of 4.62%. Perishables are projected to show a less pronounced contraction, narrowing from -0.99% in May to -0.60% in June and corresponding to a year-over-year increase of 10.9%. The research team attributes those outcomes largely to seasonal factors that continue to support a correction in prices.

Estimated annual food inflation by component, June 2026; monthly change shown inside each bar. Source: Grupo Cibest / Bancolombia, Food Prices Monitor.

Taken together, the estimates leave total food inflation essentially flat on the month at -0.02%, and at 6.12% over the past year. Bancolombia frames the June reading as evidence that the seasonal correction underway in perishable and processed food prices is holding, even as individual items such as tubers and onions continue to swing sharply from one month to the next. The food basket remains one component of the broader inflation picture Bancolombia has tracked through 2026.

Headline image description: A bar graph showing the estimated annual food inflation by component, with monthly changes shown inside each bar. Graph created by Finance Colombia.

According to a report by the Economic, Industry & Market Research Area of Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA, NYSE: CIB), annual inflation in Colombia rose by 25 basis points to 5.35% in January 2026. This monthly increase of 1.18% represents the highest inflation level since October 2025.

The data, originally prepared by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), indicates that 70% of the January inflation print was concentrated in the services and regulated components. These two sectors contributed 83 basis points of the total 118-point monthly increase, largely driven by the initial stages of annual cost pass-throughs associated with high indexation.

Businesses should prepare for more intense inflationary pressures in February and March 2026 as the full impact of the minimum wage increase and renegotiated supplier contracts take effect.

Sectoral Impacts and Service Acceleration

Annual inflation in the services category accelerated by 40 basis points to reach 6.33% in January, its highest level since April 2025. The monthly variation of 1.18% in this sector was nearly double the historical January average of 0.63%.

Bancolombia analysts attribute this acceleration to early adjustments linked to the 23% minimum wage increase for 2026 and indexation to previous years’ inflation. Notable increases were observed in:

• Full-service restaurant meals: 3.36%
• Prepared meals consumed outside the home: 2.38%
• Domestic services: 5.16%
• Imputed rent: 0.43%

The regulated group also saw an acceleration, with annual inflation rising to 5.47% from 5.40%. This was primarily explained by adjustments in urban transportation, vehicle fuels, natural gas, and tolls.

Food and Goods Price Momentum

Annual food inflation edged up slightly to 5.10% from 5.06%. Perishable foods saw an acceleration to 4.69% due to seasonal and supply factors affecting products such as tomatoes, potatoes, and plantains. Processed foods, including beef, milk, and poultry, reflected early-year cost pass-throughs, though annual inflation in this sub-group eased to 5.23%.

The goods category reached its highest level since March 2024, at 2.93%. Price hikes in this segment were driven by new taxes on alcoholic beverages enacted under the economic emergency, as well as pharmaceutical products. Conversely, price declines were noted in personal hygiene products, vehicles, and appliances, benefiting from the recent appreciation of the exchange rate.

Monetary Policy Implications and Forecasts

The Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) faces continued challenges in converging toward its 2% to 4% target range. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, reached its highest level since November 2024, indicating persistent upward pressure.

Bancolombia forecasts that year-end inflation will reach 6.4%. The analysts suggest that the full impact of the minimum wage increase has not yet been reflected in consumer prices, as many firms are still operating with inventories purchased at previous cost levels.

Consequently, the Central Bank is expected to continue raising its monetary policy rate to anchor inflation expectations. Bancolombia anticipates the policy rate could rise to 11%, noting that the challenging outlook introduces a hawkish bias to future decisions.

Photo courtesy Bancolombia

In a report (WT/DS591/RW) circulated on October 23, 2025, the panel found that Colombia’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism (MINCIT) used a flawed methodology to calculate dumping margins, breaching its obligations under the WTO’s Anti-Dumping Agreement. The panel has recommended that Colombia bring its measures into conformity with the agreement.

The ruling is the latest development in a long-running trade dispute initiated by the European Union (EU). This specific panel was a “compliance” proceeding, convened under Article 21.5 of the DSU, to determine if Colombia had successfully complied with a previous WTO ruling against its measures.

The EU successfully argued that MINCIT violated Article 2.4.2 of the Anti-Dumping Agreement by using an improper comparison method. When the ministry could not find an “exact match” for an exported product, it established a “normal value” (the product’s price in its home market) by first calculating the weighted average price for each article in a “product group,” and then taking a simple average of those intermediate averages. This simple average was then compared to the weighted average price of the export transactions.

The panel found this methodology inconsistent with the agreement’s required weighted average-to-weighted average (W-W) comparison. A normal value based on a simple average “is not a ‘weighted average normal value’ within the meaning of Article 2.4.2,” the report states.

The panel determined this method “does not account for volume differences, thereby overweighting transactions involving ‘articles’ sold in small volumes domestically and underweighting transactions involving ‘articles’ sold in large volumes domestically”. This distortion led the panel to also find Colombia in breach of Article 9.3, as the resulting anti-dumping duties were higher than the dumping margin that would have been established using a correct, volume-weighted methodology.

Colombia Wins on “Fair Comparison” Claim

However, the panel did not side with the EU on all claims. MINCIT characterized the ruling as a partial victory, as the panel rejected the EU’s separate claim that Colombia had violated the “fair comparison” requirement of Article 2.4.

This part of the dispute focused on three specific article-to-article comparisons made for the German exporter Agrarfrost GmbH & CO. KG. The EU alleged that MINCIT “arbitrarily selected” domestic products to compare with exported products, for example, by matching domestic article “503” with export article “10503” based only on the last three digits.

The panel rejected this, finding MINCIT’s establishment of the facts was “proper” and its evaluation “unbiased and objective”. The panel noted MINCIT did not just rely on the digits, but also on Agrarfrost’s own product catalog, which listed “Europe” and “Overseas” versions of the same product, supporting the “prefix” concept.

Crucially, MINCIT sent a letter to Agrarfrost directly asking if these specific article pairs were the same. Agrarfrost responded that they “are not the same” but confirmed they had common physical characteristics and provided the exact adjustments needed to account for differences in “packaging costs and marketing costs”. MINCIT then applied the very adjustments Agrarfrost had provided. The panel found this process was reasonable and did not constitute an unfair comparison.

Background and Current Duties

The original investigation began in August 2017, with anti-dumping duties imposed in 2018. The EU first requested WTO consultations in November 2019. After the initial dispute, Colombia conducted a compliance review which concluded in 2023 with Ministerial Resolution 286, which upheld the duties. It was this 2023 resolution that the EU successfully challenged in the current panel proceeding.

The current anti-dumping duties, which are now called into question by the panel’s findings on Article 2.4.2, are:

• Belgium: 2.42% for Mydibel S.A. (a subsidiary of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LW))
• Netherlands: 5.87% for Aviko B.V.
• Netherlands: 44.52% for other exporters (excluding Farmfrites B.V.)
• Germany: 3.21% for Agrarfrost GMBH & CO. KG.

In a public statement, MINCIT focused on the “partial” victory, stating the panel “approved the way it… used… the codes of some of the frozen potatoes to make the fair comparison.” The ministry acknowledged the finding that it “did not apply the most adequate methodology” regarding weighted averages and stated it “will proceed to advance a review of the process… and, if necessary, advance the actions that may be required.”

The ministry’s statement reiterated that the measures were adopted “with the objective of safeguarding the national industry” from the “damage” caused by dumped imports.

Headline photo: Gourmet French Fries in Bogotá, Colombia (photo © Loren Moss)

The positive performance of supply was reflected in 18 of the 23 cities where the monitoring is carried out, with growth in Tibasosa (79.5%), Tunja (42.1%), Manizales (30.8%), Valledupar (25.3%), and Montería (21.5%). The highest percentage growth was observed mainly in fish, dairy and eggs, tubers, roots and bananas, processed foods, and grains and cereals.

The analysis of the data also shows a sustained recovery in supply throughout the year. In the period between January and June 2025, the total volume entered wholesale centers increased by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. This evolution is explained by the dynamism observed in key groups such as grains and cereals, processed foods, dairy products and eggs and fish, with no falls in any food group.

Supply monitoring is a vital input to make strategic decisions in the territories. Thanks to this data, we can guide policies, anticipate warnings, and strengthen urban and rural food security. The sustained increase in the supply of food is good news for the country, especially in highly sensitive contexts such as the current one,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA).

In specific foods, significant increases were highlighted in products such as tangerine, pineapple, blackberry, cucumber, beans, and potatoes. On the other hand, some products, such as mangoes, lemons, papayas, and pumpkins showed occasional decreases, reflecting seasonal behaviors or adjustments in production dynamics.

From the UPRA, it is projected that in July and August a positive supply will continue with products such as sapote, tangerine, pear, kiwi, banana, arracacha, cassava, broccoli, chili pepper, coriander and eggplant, among others, strengthening access to varied foods of national origin in the country’s markets.

Fish at the market. Photo credit: photo-graphe from Pixabay.

The increase in May was higher than that recorded in the same month of 2024 (0.51%). The foods that contributed the most to this behavior were tomatoes (+12.28%), coffee (+5.47%), beef (+0.7%), onions (+5.66%), and eggs (+1.02%). In contrast, products such as potatoes (-3.68%), chicken (-0.79%), fresh fruits (-0.81%), and oranges (-5.14%) showed reductions in their prices.

In the current year (January to May), the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have increased by 4.88%, placing them above the national variation (3.63%). This performance has been marked, in particular, by tomatoes (+61.38%), coffee (+26.89%), fresh vegetables and legumes (15.5%), fresh fruit (+9.83%), and beef (3.72%). In contrast, products such as bananas (6.11%), rice (1.04%), and carrots (10.13%) have contributed to mitigating the rise.

In annual terms (May 2025 vs. May 2024), the food and non-alcoholic beverages division presented a variation of 4.71%, below the national variation (5.05%), being the sixth division with the lowest increase in the period. The foods with the highest increases were chocolate (+49.24%), tomatoes (+44.95%), coffee (+28.12%), beef (+4.02%), and fresh fruits (+6.51%). Potatoes (-17.6%), tree tomatoes (-23.93%), and blackberries (-16.77%) were the products with the greatest price drops.

“The behavior of food prices confirms the importance of planning agricultural production based on technical information. Tools such as productive ordering make it possible to anticipate supply pressures, identify cycles of scarcity, and guide public policies that contribute to stabilizing prices and guaranteeing food security,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

Tomatoes. Photo credit: Myriams-Fotos from Pixabay.

According to analysis based on IDEAM data (Colombia’s Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies), in the coming months, rainfall in the Andean, Caribbean, and Orinoquia regions is likely to be between normal values and up to 40% above historical averages. This increase, although natural in the rainy season, translates into a latent risk of extreme events that could affect both agricultural production and rural infrastructure,” explained Eliecer Díaz Almanza, an expert from the UPRA.

Headline image: Cacao fruits, when processed correcty, render chocolate.

The impact is expected to be especially relevant on crops sensitive to excess water, such as bananas and plantains, cacao, avocado, vegetables, and potatoes. In addition, high humidity conditions could lead to the proliferation of pests and diseases, affecting animal and plant health.

The acting director of the UPRA, Dora Inés Rey, highlighted the importance of consulting the Agroclimatic Bulletin to plan and, thus, reduce the impact of agroclimatic risks: “Having this information has been fundamental for decision-making. It allows farmers, producers, and authorities, both regional and national, to anticipate, prioritize actions in crops, adapt infrastructures, and protect production systems that are at risk.”

Special attention to the ACFEC

The bulletin highlights that productive areas under Ethnic and Community Family Peasant Agriculture (ACFEC) schemes are especially vulnerable. It is estimated that, in departments such as Antioquia, Cundinamarca, Boyacá, Nariño, Cauca, and Valle del Cauca, agroclimatic conditions increase the risk for small producers and production systems located in alluvial soils or with a high water table.

In regions such as the Caribbean, Pacific, and Andean, a medium and low risk of excess moisture is projected in agricultural and livestock areas in specific areas. The potential impact also extends to ACFEC’s production systems, where significant effects are expected in key departments such as Antioquia, Cundinamarca and Valle del Cauca.

The situation is similar in the Orinoquia and the Amazon, although with relatively minor impacts. In these areas, the risk of damage to rural roads and productive infrastructure stands out. “We call on regional and local authorities to make use of this information to anticipate and foresee risks, strengthen agro-ecological practices, improve drainage systems, plan planting in a staggered manner, and reinforce rural infrastructures,” explained Alexander Rodríguez Romero, technical director of Efficient Land Use and Land Adaptation at UPRA.

Likewise, we invite local authorities to redouble agroclimatic technical assistance with a differential approach for these population groups, vital in food production and food security in the country.

“The planning of agricultural activities must be guided by the climate predictions of Ideam, the UPRA Agroclimatic Bulletin, and the recommendations of the National Agroclimatic Technical Table, key tools for timely decision-making that contribute to mitigating risks and guaranteeing the sustainability of the sector,” concluded César Cortés, UPRA expert.

Key figures from the April 2025 Agroclimatic Bulletin

• 2.3 million hectares within the national agricultural frontier are at risk of excess water.
• In ACFEC areas, more than 852 thousand hectares are identified with low risk and about 86 thousand hectares with medium risk, especially in the Andean and Pacific regions.
• Andean Region: medium risk at 97,000 ha and low at 181,000 ha, with possible impact on crops such as Musaceae, fruit trees, and vegetables.
• Caribbean region: low risk in more than 179,000 ha, with critical points in agricultural areas such as Chiriguaná (Cesar).
• Pacific Region: medium risk in 109,000 ha and low in 164,000 ha; affects productive systems and mountain areas vulnerable to landslides.
• Orinoquia and Amazon regions: lower risk, but with potential effects on rural infrastructure and roads.

Photo credit: UPRA.

This supply growth is driven by significant increases in several food groups, including fresh fruits, which grew by 12.4%, and meats, which grew by 18.6%. Other key sectors, such as grains and cereals, dairy and eggs, processed foods, vegetables, and tubers, also saw substantial increases, reflecting a broad-based recovery in the agri-food sector.

Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA, commented: “The increase in food supply is excellent news for the country. It shows that the agricultural sector continues to be a key driver of employment and economic development, despite challenges and fluctuations, and continues to guarantee the availability of basic products for Colombian families. This growth in wholesale centers is a clear reflection of the work of our producers and the effectiveness of the policies implemented to strengthen the sector.”

At the national level, Tibasosa, Manizales, and Valledupar cities stood out with increases in food supply of more than 20%. In contrast, some cities, such as Ipiales, Florencia, and Villavicencio, saw drops in their supply; although, in general, the outlook is positive and favors access to a wide variety of products throughout the country.

The most outstanding products in terms of increased supply were fresh fruits, with products such as mandarins, avocados, pineapples, and passion fruit reporting outstanding increases. In the case of tubers and roots, ginger and yams stood out the most; while, in vegetables, the increase in the supply of products such as carrots, paprika, and junca onions was significant.

This positive performance in supply underscores the resilience of the Colombian agricultural sector and the constant effort by producers and distributors to ensure the flow of products in the country. In addition, the coming months of April and May 2025 are expected to bring with them a new wave of products, highlighting fruits such as pears, mangoes, kiwis, and pineapples, and tubers such as cassava, potatoes, and bananas.

Photo credit: JohnyVid from Pixabay.

In general, by food group, the supply of meat (+4.7%), fish (+3.8%), processed foods (+3.8%), and vegetables (+1.6%) increased. At the same time, a reduction was observed in grains and cereals (-5.1%), tubers, roots, and bananas (-3.2%), and fruits (-1.1%), key sectors for the basic diet of Colombians.

Relevant figures

• Tubers and roots: although products such as ginger (+216.6%) and yams (+24.6%) increased their supply, potatoes, one of the most consumed foods, registered a decrease of 4.4%.
•  Fruit: avocado (+36.9%) and mango (+22.2%) stood out with significant increases, while essential fruits, such as oranges (-28.4%) and tree tomatoes (-16.5%) decreased.
•  Vegetables: beets (+17.7%) and onions (+11.5%) showed a greater supply, unlike products such as beans (-12.5%) and carrots (-5.6%).

Dora Inés Rey Martínez, acting director of the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA), highlighted the importance of monitoring supply behavior to ensure the country’s food security: “Stability in the food supply is essential for Colombia’s food security. Efforts must strengthen the production and logistics of basic foodstuffs, ensuring that they arrive constantly and affordably on the tables of all Colombians.”

“The UPRA reaffirms its commitment to the development of public policies that ensure the sustainability of agri-food production, promote crop diversity, and guarantee constant supply throughout the national territory,” she added in a statement.

Photo credit: Colombia’s Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA)

]]> https://www.financecolombia.com/colombia-sees-decrease-in-fresh-produce-prices-impacting-consumers/ Tue, 12 Nov 2024 15:29:31 +0000 https://www.financecolombia.com/?p=31440 In October 2024, Colombia’s wholesale prices for various fresh fruits and vegetables saw notable declines, according to the Unit of Agricultural Rural Planning (UPRA). Items like cucumber, onions, and beets dropped over 20%, reflecting an increase in supply due to favorable harvests in key regions such as Cundinamarca, Boyacá, and Cauca.

Root vegetables, particularly potatoes and yams, also experienced price reductions exceeding 10% due to higher yields from areas like the Cundiboyacense plateau and Norte de Santander. In contrast, the prices of certain grains and cereals, including corn and beans, rose by up to 5%, largely due to adverse weather conditions and limited market availability.

Despite logistical challenges posed by protests, including mining and farming strikes that disrupted supply chains, wholesale food prices generally stabilized. This trend was attributed to price declines in previous weeks that helped offset October’s fluctuations.

While fresh fruits like papaya, mango, and pineapple saw price reductions, products such as lime and avocado experienced increases. Additionally, there were slight drops in the costs of beef, pork, and chicken cuts, although reductions were minimal—under 3%.

For more information on food price changes in Colombia, visit the official UPRA report.

Headline photo: Colombian criolla potatoes (photo: Loren Moss)