The US and Colombia have long cooperated on repatriation of migrants, criminals, and other detainees, with trips deporting both Colombians from the US and US citizens from Colombia. These flights have taken place routinely in previous years of Petro’s presidency. However, after a 3am tweet by Petro saying he was welcoming the next two repatriation flights from the US with “flags and flowers,” Petro erased the tweet and tweeted that he would be “deauthorizing the flights from the US” after the planes were already in the air. The move prompted immediate retaliation by the Trump administration, who announced:

• Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States. In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.
•  A Travel Ban and immediate Visa Revocations on the Colombian Government Officials, and all Allies and Supporters.
• Visa Sanctions on all Party Members, Family Members, and Supporters of the Colombian Government.
• Enhanced Customs and Border Protection Inspections of all Colombian Nationals and Cargo on national security grounds.
• IEEPA Treasury, Banking and Financial Sanctions to be fully imposed.

Petro that afternoon drafted a long and rather incoherent monologue addressed to Trump, complaining that he does not like to travel to the United States, that Trump is going to terminate the human species, that he will not bow to Trump, one day with a shot of whisky that he accepts despite his gastritis, he could discuss this with Trump, that he will not outstretch his hand to white slavers, that Trump is going to kill him but he will survive in his pueblo, that his people will rise up when Trump kills him, and a long list of grievances. Petro ends the note saying that he will match Trump’s 50% tariff imposition.

Complete capitulation

If Petro fancied himself a latter day “liberador” in the image of independence hero Simón Bolivar, he was leading his charge alone. Medellín’s Mayor, Federico Gutierrez immediately called a press conference denouncing Petro for political adventurism, and flatly stated that Petro doesn’t represent him. Other mayors including Bogotá’s Carlos Fernando Galán spoke out against Petro’s actions, saying “This is a grave diplomatic crisis that doesn’t benefit anyone. We call, thinking of the rights of all Colombians and the interests of Colombia, for the diplomatic relations of the country to be managed in a serious, rational and responsible manner.”

The same afternoon that Petro promised retaliatory tariffs against the US, his resistance collapsed and his administration agreed to all of Trumps demands, a resumption of the repatriation flights, gaining no concessions whatsoever for the drama and trouble.

Hours after Petro’s diatribe, the White House issued a statement saying:

“The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on US military aircraft, without limitation or delay. Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement. The visa sanctions issued by the State Department, and enhanced inspections from Customs and Border Protection, will remain in effect until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned. Todays events make clear to the world that America is respected again. President Trump will continue to fiercely protect our nation’s sovereignty, and he expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States.”

Trump has announced immediate 50% tariffs, financial sanctions, visa revocations and travel bans against Colombia

Then, Sunday afternoon Trump took to social media with the following message (verbatim):

I was just informed that two repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia. This order was given by Colombia’s Socialist President Gustavo Petro, who is already very unpopular amongst his people. Petro’s denial of these flights has jeopardized the National Security and Public Safety of the United States, so I have directed my Administration to immediately take the following urgent and decisive retaliatory measures:

 Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States. In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.
 A Travel Ban and immediate Visa Revocations on the Colombian Government Officials, and all Allies and Supporters.
 Visa Sanctions on all Party Members, Family Members, and Supporters of the Colombian Government.
 Enhanced Customs and Border Protection Inspections of all Colombian Nationals and Cargo on national security grounds.
 IEEPA Treasury, Banking and Financial Sanctions to be fully imposed.

These measures are just the beginning. We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the Criminals they forced into the United States!

Analysis

The fast moving battle between Trump and Petro will have unpredictable, though certainly negative results on bilateral relations. Both Petro and Trump are populists who tend to govern by impulse. This morning Petro himself went from welcoming the deportees to refusing their entry; repatriation flights are routine, and not only have been taking place from the US to Colombia throughout recent history, but Colombia also repatriates and expels both criminals and migrants in the country illegally on a regular basis. If Petro was seeking to make a point, similar to his threat last week to impose visa requirements on British subjects, it seems that he has grossly miscalculated. The US is not only Colombia’s largest trading partner, with a free trade agreement in effect, but Colombia is one of the top five recipient countries globally for US foreign aid and support.

On the other hand, Trump’s retaliation goes far beyond pressuring the Petro administration and will no doubt hurt the most pro-US segment of the Colombian population—those with international ties and trade to and from the US; also the segment of the population where Petro enjoys the weakest support. Most Colombian government officials are civil servants rather than political appointees, and not necessarily allies of Petro. “Enhanced Customs and Border Protection Inspections of all Colombian Nationals and Cargo…” could be interpreted as “hassling travelers and their baggage as they arrive,” which again, will not hurt Petro, nor his base of support among low-income and left-wing Colombians, but will affect the most pro-US / anti-Petro sector of the population, international business and leisure travelers, and those with family ties in the US.

The new crisis pits an impulsive right-wing populist against an impulsive left-wing populist. The only guarantee is that things will move both quickly and loudly.

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See also:

• US Embassy in Colombia Halts Visa Issuance After Colombian President Blocks Deportation Flights

• Colombia Threatens To Impose Visa Requirements On British Tourists & Visitors