The affirmation of GEB’s ratings reflects its stable cash flow, business position, and adequate liquidity. Fitch anticipates the company’s credit metrics will remain consistent with its rating over the medium term. However, the ratings also account for GEB’s reliance on dividends from subsidiaries, its ongoing growth strategy, and a high dividend payout policy.

GEB operates a diversified portfolio of regulated businesses in electricity and natural gas transport and distribution. Its primary subsidiaries, Transportadora de Gas Internacional S.A. E.S.P. (BBB/Negative) and Gas Natural de Lima y Callao S.A. (Cálidda) (BBB/Stable), are the main contributors to its EBITDA, representing more than 70% of EBITDA from controlled companies. Dividends from its non-controlling stake in Enel Colombia S.A. E.S.P. (BBB/Negative) are expected to be the main source of dividends, averaging 60%.

Fitch projects GEB’s EBITDA leverage to increase to 4.2x in 2026 from 4.0x in 2024. The company’s free cash flow is projected to remain negative in 2025 and 2026, driven by higher capital expenditures and a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70%. GEB’s investment program is estimated to total around $1.5 billion from 2025 to 2028, with 44% directed to transmission projects in Colombia and 30% to natural gas transportation.

GEB’s credit profile is comparable to its investment-grade peers. Its ‘BBB’ rating is one notch below Enel Américas S.A. (BVC: ENELAM) (BBB+/Stable) and two notches above Empresas Públicas de Medellín E.S.P. (EPM) (BVC: EPM) (BB+/Negative). Enel Américas has a more conservative capital structure and a wider geographic footprint. EPM’s rating is linked to that of its owner, the city of Medellín. GEB is rated one notch above both AES Andes S.A. (SNSE: AESANDES) (BBB-/Stable) and Promigas S.A. E.S.P. (Promigas) (BBB-/Stable), due to its business concentration in a regulated environment compared to AES Andes, and its greater business and geographic diversification compared to Promigas.

The rating of GEB is not capped by the credit profile of its controlling owner due to regulatory ring-fencing mechanisms, material minority shareholders, and strong governance practices. These factors, under Fitch’s Parent-Subsidiary Rating Criteria, allow GEB to be rated two notches above Bogotá’s consolidated profile of (BB+/Negative).

GEB’s exposure to regulatory risk is considered low to moderate, with its geographic diversification and the strong business positions of its subsidiaries mitigating a concentration in regulated businesses in Colombia. The company’s rating is also above Colombia’s Country Ceiling (BBB-) because its applicable Country Ceiling is that of Peru (A-), reflecting the significant EBITDA generated by its Peruvian subsidiary Cálidda and dividends from its stakes in Peruvian transmission companies Consorcio Transmantaro and Red de Energía del Perú. These cash flows are sufficient to cover GEB’s foreign-currency interest payments.

GEB’s liquidity is supported by cash on hand, predictable cash flow from operations, and access to capital markets. As of June 2025, the company had approximately $327 million in cash and equivalents. It faces near-term debt maturities of $259 million in the remainder of 2025 and $495 million in 2026, which Fitch expects the company to refinance successfully.

Grupo Energía Bogotá. Photo credit: Grupo Energía Bogotá/Facebook.

Included among those that the big three rating agency has put on a negative outlook are Bancolombia, Banco de Bogotá, Seguros Generales Suramericana (SGS), Seguros de Vida Suramericana S.A. (SVS), and Compañía Aseguradora de Fianzas S.A. Confianza (Confianza).

While the Colombian government maintains a willingness to support Bancolombia and Banco de Bogotá, “its capacity to provide support is reflected by its rating,” stated Moody’s.

While the New York-based agency noted that the Colombian government maintains a willingness to support Bancolombia and Banco de Bogotá, “its capacity to provide support is reflected by its rating,” stated Moody’s.

“The affected banks’ long-term deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings of Baa2 are positioned at the same level of sovereign bond rating as Moody’s assesses a very high probability that the government will support them if needed,” added the agency. “This assessment considers the very large deposit franchises of the affected banks, which are the two largest in Colombia, with deposit market shares ranging of 12.9% (Banco de Bogota) and 23.2% (Bancolombia) as of September 2017.”

The outlooks for Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. and Grupo Aval Limited (the controlling companies tied to Banco de Bogotá) have been unaffected.

Regarding the insurers, Moody’s said in a statement that “the change to a negative outlook on SGS’ and SVS’ ratings addresses the likelihood that — were it to ultimately occur — a downgrade of Colombia’s sovereign bond rating could lead to a rating downgrade for SGS and SVS, primarily taking into account the correlation between the companies’ credit profiles and that of the Colombian sovereign, given their direct and indirect exposures to sovereign assets, and the fact that the insurers’ ratings are currently positioned at the sovereign rating level.”

Three infrastructure issuers also suffered the same outlook change to negative: Interconexion Electrica S.A. E.S.P. (which has a Baa2 rating, now with a negative outlook), Empresas Publicas de Medellín S.A. E.S.P. (Baa2, negative), and Enel Americas S.A. (Baa3, negative).

READ MORE: Moody’s Drops Credit Rating for Colombia to Negative from Stable

The fallout has not affected Ecopetrol S.A., however. Moody’s has maintained its Baa3 rating and stable outlook for state-controlled oil company

The Bogotá-based hydrocarbon giant highlighted the news, saying in a statement that the change for the nation’s outlook “had no effect on the company’s credit rating, as it anticipates continuously improving fundamental performance.”

Ecopetrol announced this week that it made a net profit of 6.6 trillion pesos in 2017, its best results since 2013 and more than four times its reported profit in 2016. In 2017, it also extended its reserve life to 7.1 years and hit output goals of 715,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a level it expects to at least match this year amid up to $4 billion USD in investment in exploration and production.