The authorization by APHIS follows technical and commercial discussions between US and Colombian regulatory bodies. Minister Morales Rojas stated that the outcome enables the poultry industry to expand its presence in international markets and integrate into higher-standard value chains.

The regulatory modification is the result of collaboration between the Government of Colombia, the Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario (ICA), the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism, the Embassy of Colombia in the United States, and the Federación Nacional de Avicultores (Fenavi), the trade association representing the poultry sector.

Six US facilities have been designated to receive the Colombian shell eggs for processing. These plants are situated in the states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arkansas, and Georgia. The direct entry authorization for industrial use simplifies the logistics and required sanitary compliance for the export of the product.

Above photo: Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Industry and Trade, Diana Marcela Morales (courtesy MinCIT)

The positive performance of supply was reflected in 18 of the 23 cities where the monitoring is carried out, with growth in Tibasosa (79.5%), Tunja (42.1%), Manizales (30.8%), Valledupar (25.3%), and Montería (21.5%). The highest percentage growth was observed mainly in fish, dairy and eggs, tubers, roots and bananas, processed foods, and grains and cereals.

The analysis of the data also shows a sustained recovery in supply throughout the year. In the period between January and June 2025, the total volume entered wholesale centers increased by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. This evolution is explained by the dynamism observed in key groups such as grains and cereals, processed foods, dairy products and eggs and fish, with no falls in any food group.

Supply monitoring is a vital input to make strategic decisions in the territories. Thanks to this data, we can guide policies, anticipate warnings, and strengthen urban and rural food security. The sustained increase in the supply of food is good news for the country, especially in highly sensitive contexts such as the current one,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA).

In specific foods, significant increases were highlighted in products such as tangerine, pineapple, blackberry, cucumber, beans, and potatoes. On the other hand, some products, such as mangoes, lemons, papayas, and pumpkins showed occasional decreases, reflecting seasonal behaviors or adjustments in production dynamics.

From the UPRA, it is projected that in July and August a positive supply will continue with products such as sapote, tangerine, pear, kiwi, banana, arracacha, cassava, broccoli, chili pepper, coriander and eggplant, among others, strengthening access to varied foods of national origin in the country’s markets.

Fish at the market. Photo credit: photo-graphe from Pixabay.

The prices of products such as carrots, beets, junca and bighead onions, broccoli, and green beans in pods increased by more than 10% driven by a lower supply from key regions such as Cundinamarca, Antioquia, Boyacá, and Nariño. In contrast, products such as cucumber, chocolo (corn), tomatoes, and green beans registered decreases, in some cases also greater than 10%.

In the group of fresh fruits, the price falls in mandarins, lemons, guava, oranges, pineapples, avocados, apples, soursops (guanabana), and bananas stood out. However, some tropical fruits such as tree tomatoes (tomatos de arból), mangoes, and passion fruit showed considerable increases, as did grapes, melons, and dragon fruits (pitaya).

“These price fluctuations respond to both climatic conditions and natural production cycles, which forces us to continue strengthening agricultural planning with data. We continue to advance in tools to anticipate these variations and better guide production and marketing in the territories,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

In tubers, decreases were recorded in the native and black potato varieties, as well as in the arracacha. However, products such as bananas, yams, and cassava reported moderate increases, in line with their seasonal behavior. In meat, the prices of several cuts of beef, fish, and chicken increased slightly, while Dora Inés Rey presented a generalized, although moderate, reduction.

The behavior of egg prices was on the rise in all categories, and the same happened with artisanal cheeses. In grains and cereals, decreases were observed in products such as yellow corn and imported lentils, while beans such as red cargo and radical increased their price. Finally, among processed foods, increases were recorded in sugar, coffee, chocolates, and refined oils; while decreases were observed in flours, pastes, and mixed vegetable oils.

Pork. Photo credit: ludiarin from Pixabay.

This positive performance was reflected in 16 of the 23 cities with reference wholesale markets, with especially notable increases in Tibasosa (67.8%), Manizales (29.2%), Villavicencio (15.3%), Armenia (12.5%), Medellín (11.3%), and Bogotá (8.4%). Although there were reductions in some points, such as Ipiales (-25.4%) and Santa Marta (-22.8%), the national balance was largely positive.

By food groups, the greatest dynamism was in processed foods (15.3%), grains and cereals (12.8%), fish (10.2%), dairy products and eggs (9.2%) and tubers, roots and bananas (7.0%). Fruit (5.9%) and vegetables (4.4%) also increased. Only the meat group showed a slight decrease (-1.7%).

“This data confirms that the countryside is responding to the country’s food demand. To plan efficiently, we need to know what is coming, from where, and in what quantities. Technical monitoring of supply is key to guaranteeing food security and guiding production from rural territories,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

In the group of vegetables, 180,620 tons entered, with outstanding behaviors in the supply of beans (33.9%), corn (32%), celery (19.4%), garlic (18.8%), cucumber (17%) and peppers (16.2%). Increases were also reported in carrots, onions, beans and other vegetables. On the other hand, the entry of green peas, cabbage, tomatoes, onions, pumpkins and lettuce decreased.
In the case of Cali, one of the main receiving cities, 42% of the volume of vegetables came from Valle del Cauca, followed by Nariño (22.8%), Bogotá (16.3%), Boyacá (14.3%) and Cauca (2%), evidencing the articulation between producing regions and urban markets.

Onions. Photo credit: moviedo from Pixabay.

Among the foods that reported falls in their prices are black and creole potatoes (more than 10%), arracacha, plantains, and pork, whose different cuts fell without exceeding 5%. Some cuts of chicken, such as wings, legs, and breast, also decreased, as did fruit such as mango, passion fruit, tangerine, lemon, orange, and papaya. In the vegetable group, products such as junca onions, broccoli, green beans in pods, and paprika became cheaper.

In contrast, the largest price increases were recorded in vegetables such as white and red onions, tomatoes, cucumbers, green peas in pods, and carrots, with variations of more than 10%. Products such as beans, pumpkins, and some lettuce also rose. The rise in green peas, for example, was explained by lower availability from regions such as Nariño, Cundinamarca, and Antioquia, while cucumber was affected by harvest pauses in Norte de Santander, Risaralda, and Boyacá.

“Technical monitoring of price behavior is key to understanding the dynamics of the agri-food system. With this data, we can anticipate risks that affect food safety. Productive planning requires reliable information to make timely decisions in public policy,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

In the group of grains and cereals, decreases were observed in imported products such as dry peas, threshed yellow corn, and lentils, while some varieties of domestic beans, prime rice, and imported husk corn became more expensive. As for processed foods, the prices of refined sugar, wheat flour, vegetable oil, and ground coffee rose, while products such as sunflower oil, cornstarch, and some pasta decreased.

The behavior of prices during May reflects, in several cases, the effect of weather conditions and harvest closures, as well as normal market adjustments. These data allow us to better understand the relationship between production, supply, and prices, which is key to guiding national agri-food policy.

Eggs. Photo credit: akirEVarga from Pixabay.

The increase in May was higher than that recorded in the same month of 2024 (0.51%). The foods that contributed the most to this behavior were tomatoes (+12.28%), coffee (+5.47%), beef (+0.7%), onions (+5.66%), and eggs (+1.02%). In contrast, products such as potatoes (-3.68%), chicken (-0.79%), fresh fruits (-0.81%), and oranges (-5.14%) showed reductions in their prices.

In the current year (January to May), the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have increased by 4.88%, placing them above the national variation (3.63%). This performance has been marked, in particular, by tomatoes (+61.38%), coffee (+26.89%), fresh vegetables and legumes (15.5%), fresh fruit (+9.83%), and beef (3.72%). In contrast, products such as bananas (6.11%), rice (1.04%), and carrots (10.13%) have contributed to mitigating the rise.

In annual terms (May 2025 vs. May 2024), the food and non-alcoholic beverages division presented a variation of 4.71%, below the national variation (5.05%), being the sixth division with the lowest increase in the period. The foods with the highest increases were chocolate (+49.24%), tomatoes (+44.95%), coffee (+28.12%), beef (+4.02%), and fresh fruits (+6.51%). Potatoes (-17.6%), tree tomatoes (-23.93%), and blackberries (-16.77%) were the products with the greatest price drops.

“The behavior of food prices confirms the importance of planning agricultural production based on technical information. Tools such as productive ordering make it possible to anticipate supply pressures, identify cycles of scarcity, and guide public policies that contribute to stabilizing prices and guaranteeing food security,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

Tomatoes. Photo credit: Myriams-Fotos from Pixabay.

For the first time since comparable quarterly records began (since 2005), agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry, and fishing reached third place among the 12 branches of economic activity in terms of participation in the value added of the economy, with a share of 11.4%.

“The sustained growth of the agricultural sector not only reflects its strategic importance for the country, but also shows how agriculture continues to be one of the most solid pillars of the Colombian economy; it promotes regional development and job creation,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA).

Outstanding growth in all its divisions

The agricultural sector achieved an outstanding performance in all its divisions. The value added of coffee grew by 31.3%, while fishing and aquaculture also showed a solid increase of 18.2%. Forestry and timber harvesting grew by 11.4 percent, and livestock increased by 8.9 percent. On the other hand, agricultural crops without coffee registered a growth of 2.4%.

The productions that stood out the most, in terms of growth, were cocoa (33.3%), coffee (32.9%), cattle (13.8%), raw milk (12.1%), and walnuts and palm fruits (11.7%). In addition, chicken and eggs also showed positive increases, with a growth of 9.1% and 8.3%, respectively.

With a growth higher than that recorded by GDP, the agricultural sector continues to demonstrate its relevance as a generator of employment and development. During the first quarter of the year, the agricultural sector has remained robust, contributing significantly to the growth of the economy and consolidating itself as an essential pillar for the stability of the country, said Rey.

Headline photo: Coffee from Colombia. Photo credit: Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism (MinCIT)

This supply growth is driven by significant increases in several food groups, including fresh fruits, which grew by 12.4%, and meats, which grew by 18.6%. Other key sectors, such as grains and cereals, dairy and eggs, processed foods, vegetables, and tubers, also saw substantial increases, reflecting a broad-based recovery in the agri-food sector.

Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA, commented: “The increase in food supply is excellent news for the country. It shows that the agricultural sector continues to be a key driver of employment and economic development, despite challenges and fluctuations, and continues to guarantee the availability of basic products for Colombian families. This growth in wholesale centers is a clear reflection of the work of our producers and the effectiveness of the policies implemented to strengthen the sector.”

At the national level, Tibasosa, Manizales, and Valledupar cities stood out with increases in food supply of more than 20%. In contrast, some cities, such as Ipiales, Florencia, and Villavicencio, saw drops in their supply; although, in general, the outlook is positive and favors access to a wide variety of products throughout the country.

The most outstanding products in terms of increased supply were fresh fruits, with products such as mandarins, avocados, pineapples, and passion fruit reporting outstanding increases. In the case of tubers and roots, ginger and yams stood out the most; while, in vegetables, the increase in the supply of products such as carrots, paprika, and junca onions was significant.

This positive performance in supply underscores the resilience of the Colombian agricultural sector and the constant effort by producers and distributors to ensure the flow of products in the country. In addition, the coming months of April and May 2025 are expected to bring with them a new wave of products, highlighting fruits such as pears, mangoes, kiwis, and pineapples, and tubers such as cassava, potatoes, and bananas.

Photo credit: JohnyVid from Pixabay.

Notable decreases include:

• Price drops exceeding 20% for key items such as white and red onions, bell peppers, green peas, and green beans.
• A 10% decrease in prices for all varieties of potatoes, reversing a trend of sustained increases seen in previous months.

Conversely, prices for several fresh fruits, including mangoes, avocados, Tahiti limes, mandarins, grapes, papayas, and pineapples, saw increases of more than 10%.

Pork prices, as well as those for artisanal cheeses and eggs, also declined, offering some relief for consumers. Meanwhile, prices for beef and chicken rose slightly, with fresh whole chicken prices increasing by 1%.

These price fluctuations are largely attributed to an increase in supply due to harvests in regions such as Norte de Santander, Huila, and Antioquia, as well as weather conditions affecting fresh food production.

“The data this month highlights the importance of monitoring wholesale markets to better understand the dynamics impacting Colombian households,” said Dora Inés Rey, Director of UPRA. “We continue to work on providing timely information to help both producers and consumers make strategic decisions in response to market fluctuations.”

In the vegetable and tuber categories, essential products like carrots, green beans, and corn saw significant price reductions. However, cucumbers, beets, and scallions recorded price increases. Most potato varieties, yams, and Hartón plantains experienced price drops.

For fresh fruits, while items like mangoes and avocados became more expensive, other fruits such as Castilian blackberries, tree tomatoes, and lulo saw price decreases.

These shifts reflect broader trends in the Colombian agricultural sector, driven by both regional harvests and environmental factors.

“This year in Colombia they have murdered 22 social leaders, there have been 19 massacres. In 2021, within the framework of the protests, the police murdered, disappeared and sexually assaulted hundreds of protesters. The systematic violation of human rights is endless. To complete the shamelessness, Duque is being received with a red carpet in Europe,” said Miguel Urbán Crespo, a radical leftist Member of the European Parliament from Spain.

Indeed during Duque’s tenure, Colombia seems to mirror the popular movie “The Hunger Games” where Bogotá and Medellín, analogous to Districts 1 and 2 from the movie are world class, modern cities complete with luxury housing, advanced health care, and imported delicacies, while much of the country remains without basic services, education, or unlike the Hunger Games, basic security and government protection. The United Nations is very clear that the worsening of conditions is solidly within Duque’s term of responsibility and can’t be blamed on longer term trends. From the UN Global Humanitarian Overview:

In 2021, organized NSAGs [Non-State Armed Groups] have expanded rapidly in peripheral areas of the country, creating an increase in hostilities and violence affecting civilian populations, particularly ethnic minorities. Increased use of explosive ordnance, including improvised landmines, has been reported, particularly in rural areas and regions bordering neighboring countries, where illicit crops and other illegal economies are located. In 2021, indigenous communities have been gravely affected by explosive ordnance, recording a 20 per cent increase in indigenous casualties compared with 2020.¹ The increase in recruitment of minors has also been reported.² 2021 witnessed the highest number of people affected by mass displacements and confinement in the last decade and a continuous trend in confinement affecting more than 113,000 people this year.³

The same report notes that while Colombia is classified as an “Upper Middle Income” country, on the INFORM Severity Index, Colombia ranks as 4.5 / Very High, in other words, a humanitarian disaster. The European Commission’s “INFORM Severity Index is an improved way to objectively measure and compare the severity of humanitarian crises and disasters globally.”

The Duque administration was further embarrassed by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization that listed Colombia as the only country in South America as “Food Insecure and in need of food assistance in 2022” along with South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Madagascar and Yemen. Rather than address the crisis, Vice President and acting foreign minister Marta Lucia Ramirez demanded that Colombia be removed from the report.

The administration didn’t dare protest when two years ago, the United States government said the same thing about Colombia: “Food security needs in Colombia remain high due to internal conflict and periodic natural disasters, as well as the influx of vulnerable Venezuelans and Colombian returnees crossing into Colombia as a result of the escalating economic and political crisis in Venezuela.”

During the COVID pandemic lockdowns, for almost a year there was a general curfew throughout the country, giving police more reason and power to stop and question people out on the roads, but during the pandemic, illicit narcotics exports surged. 1,228 metric tons of cocaine were produced in Colombia in 2020, an increase of 8 percent over the previous year.

Photo of Marta Lucia Ramirez by Felipe Castaño, Vicepresidency of The Republic

It has been difficult to take the Duque administration’s antinarcotics efforts seriously when his own Vice President Marta Lucia Ramirez, the same one who made demands against the UN report on Colombia’s precarious humanitarian situation, also tried to press criminal charges against investigative journalists at Insight Crime who revealed and verified her own family’s ties to narcotraffickers. Her husband had business dealings with now convicted paramilitary narcotrafficker “Guillermo León Acevedo Giraldo, AKA “Memo Fantasma,” and it was revealed that the vice president paid $150,000 to bail out her own brother who was caught and convicted for heroin trafficking.

The attorney general’s office has now revealed that criminal mafias such as the notorious Clan del Golfo have likely infiltrated the Colombian military and law enforcement at the highest levels, including army generals. Had this been revealed at the beginning of Duque’s term, he could claim to be the guy to clean things up, but he is in the final months of his presidency. Even the Catholic church has spoken out against what it sees as actual collaboration between the military and mafias.

“We found in various municipalities that in many places where there is a strong presence of the Army and the public force there is a concomitant presence of the Clan del Golfo,” said Monsignor Juan Carlos Barreto, Archbishop of Quibdó, Chocó “We confirm the seriousness of the humanitarian crisis due to the armed conflict and the abandonment of the state.”

It’s not hard to argue that Duque has been no friend of the campesinos. Criminal displacements—being run off your land or home by armed gangs—has more than doubled in the past year alone. From the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report (translated):

“The number of victims due to mass displacement has increased by 101% between January and May 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Likewise, the number of displacement events has increased by 31%, that is, they have been registered 15 more events in relation to the same period in 2020. So far, only 19% of the victims of displacement in 2021 have returned to their homes, while 81% or 23,837 people remain displaced, due to the impossibility of having a safe return due to the inadequate security conditions that remain in the territory, and in the midst of intersectoral needs that require attention.”

The report goes on to say:

It is worrying that the attacks against the civilian population and that trigger mass displacements are expanding and increasing by 54% to other departments such as La Guajira, Cesar, Arauca, Meta, Guaviare and Caquetá, among others. The increase in homicides and intentional injuries in civilians stands out by 161% and 70% respectively, showing an increase in attacks against civilians in a large part of the national territory.

The security situation under Duque is deteriorating such that criminals are emboldened enough to even attack the Presidential helicopter, as happened last year when the president was arriving in Cúcuta, a city on Colombia’s border with Venezuela. The presidential Sikorsky Black Hawk took six hits from small arms fire.

Colombians at home are unhappy with Duque

Colombia’s ESMAD riot police have indiscriminately attacked journalists, bystanders, and unlucky passers-by caught in the area.

Last year, Colombians took to the streets after Duque’s finance minister, Alberto Carrasquilla sought to raise taxes by expanding Colombia’s income tax obligation to lower income Colombians and taxing basic staples, but in an interview demonstrated he had no idea how much a dozen eggs cost. The abusive response by Colombia’s ESMAD riot police further inflamed the situation.

Yesterday, Colombian polling firm Invamer released results of a poll taken the first two weeks of February that shows only 20% of Colombians approve of his governance, while 73% disapprove. Many Colombians and investors abroad fear a left-wing presidency by former guerilla militant Gustavo Petro, but Duque with his dismal ratings may inadvertently be Petro’s best ally. The same Invamer poll showed that for the first time since 2018, Petro’s favorable ratings at 42 points have exceeded his unfavorable opinion ratings, which are at 40 points. Other presidential candidates’ ratings:

• • Juan Manuel Galán (centrist): 29% favorable, 22% unfavorable
  • Sergio Fajardo (centrist): 25% favorable, 33% unfavorable
  • Ingrid Betancourt (left): 23% favorable, 43% unfavorable
  • Alejandro Gaviria (centrist) 17% favorable, 23% unfavorable
  • Francia Márquez (left) 16% favorable, 8% unfavorable
  • Rodolfo Hernández (right) 16% favorable, 16% unfavorable
  • Federico Gutierrez (centrist) 15% favorable, 22% unfavorable
  • Alejandro Char (centrist) 12% favorable, 32% unfavorable

The Centro Democrático political party controlled by former President and current Senator Álvaro Uribe’s candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga has a favorable rating of 15% and unfavorable rating of 45%, a higher unfavorable rating than anyone except Ivan Duque himself, who cannot run due to Colombia’s single presidential term limit, and former president Álvaro Uribe Vélez, who has an approval rating of 21% and unfavorable image of 67%. Uribe was once widely seen as a hero, but his popularity has plummeted as allegations surface of human rights abuses during his administration, and more recent witness tampering and charges of attempting to frame opposition politicians. Uribe spent some time under house arrest due to the charges.

Members of Duque’s own Centro Democrático don’t seem to have much respect for him. “Uribista” senator María Fernanda Cabál was caught in a recorded phone call with a retired military officer sharing her true sentiment toward President Duque:

Uribista senator Maria Fernanda Cabal says Ivan Duque is a “Mamerto.”

“Duque is a leftist liberal, Duque is a mamerto,” says Cabal. Mamerto is a very strong insult in Colombian slang that can translate as idiot, but in Colombia is especially used as a pejorative for leftists, such as historically, sympathizers with the FARC or ELN rebel groups.

The soldier then asks how he could have infiltrated the party. “He didn’t infiltrate us, he was installed by Fabio Echeverri Correa, because Duque was intelligent and applied, and was sent to accompany [chaperone] his lazy son, who isn’t worth a butthole, Luigi Echeverri,” Cabal goes on to say. Fabio Echeverri Correa was a powerful businessman and president of ANDI, Colombia’s largest business trade association. His son, Luigi Echeverri is a friend of President Duque and a member of several corporate bords in Colombia, such as Telefónica Colombia (operating as Movistar), Ecopetrol, and the Bogotá Chamber of Commerce. He was President Duque’s campaign manager, and based on his LinkedIn profile, he presides over an “entity supporting the ideas of f. President Dr. Alvaro Uribe Vélez.”

Needless to say, Maria Fernanda Cabal is not impressed.

“It is that if you have a lazy son and you have money and you want him to graduate, then you invite the most intelligent girl in the class to blow him off. Like when your daughter is ugly, you have to take her with the pretty one to see if she picks someone up,” she continued.

“This guevón worked in Washington all his life and he carried Uribe’s suitcase when he went on a trip, but that’s only when we see the guy.” Guevón literally translates to “big eggs” but is also an insult in Colombian slang, like mamerto: strong words that would tend to start a bar fight if used with a stranger

“He is poison, so [President] Uribe always ends up falling, and we end up fucked because he [Duque] has the flavor of shit…There is nothing to do until he is gone, so I tell you, we win or we are all going to shit,” said Cabal. When the recording was leaked, she doubled down and stood by her words. Duque and Luigi Echeverry refused to respond, with Echeverry saying to simply consider the source, and Duque responding in Latin: “De minimis non curat praetor:” The magistrate does not consider trifles.

Let them eat eggs…and potatoes

Nos llevó el putas! Huevos a más de mil pesos cada uno pic.twitter.com/mNxjmKGsEq

— JUAN CARLOS VILLANI (@JUANVILLANI) February 15, 2022

Last year, the finance minister was lost when it came to the price of eggs. But Monday, a journalist with one of Colombia’s largest media networks was moved to profanity when he encountered eggs in a Bogotá supermarket selling for over $1,030 Colombian pesos per egg, or 26 US cents.

“On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.”

For the record, Duque’s former Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla guessed that a dozen eggs cost $1,800 pesos, or 48 cents. Carrasquilla proposed adding Colombia’s 19% VAT tax to basic foodstuffs like eggs and rice, also to gasoline and funerals, while exempting firearms and sugary soft drinks. Carrasquilla’s answer? “On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.”

Even though Colombia is a petroleum exporting country and petroleum prices have jumped, the Colombian peso is at a near record low, worsening inflation. Potatoes, another Colombian staple, have jumped 140% in prices compared to a year ago. Per capital potato consumption in Colombia exceeds a whopping 79 pounds, or 36 kilos.

The government has announced it is removing import duties on agricultural supplies such as pesticides in an attempt to reduce prices, but any effect will be delayed until future harvests.

Colombian food price increases between December 2021 & January 2022

The Ivan Duque Legacy

While it is far too early for historians to assess Duque’s presidency, it is hard to find economic or social indicators that can justify a positive assessment of Duque’s term.  Duque has promoted relatively investor-friendly policies, but his neglect of everyone outside of Colombia’s investor class has created a possible opening for the first-ever left-wing populist to enter the presidential palace.

Political risk expert Sergio Guzmán is co-founder of Colombia Risk Analysis

“There is a generalized negativity in the country and that favors candidates who show a platform of opposition to the status quo,” said Colombia Risk Analysis co-founder Sergio Guzman. “This drastically improves Gustavo Petro’s chances of not only making it to the second round, but potentially winning.”

Duque has publicly dragged his feet when it comes to implementing the peace accords negotiated under the previous administration, but bitterly opposed by Duque’s political godfather, Alvaro Uribe.

Overall, the Duque administration has seemed to do a competent job managing the COVID pandemic, with some notable fiascos such as his infamous “COVID Friday.” Duque also intervened to assure an insurance settlement between Spanish insurer MAPFRE and public utility conglomerate Empresas Públicas de Medellín, controlled by Medellín’s populist mayor Daniel Quintero.

Ivan Duque is seen buddy-buddy with then-head of the US International Development Finance Corporation Adam Boehler

Duque, who speaks fluent English having spent much of his professional career in Washington, has generally maintained friendly, even fawning relations with Colombia’s traditional allies such as the United States. His administration has been relatively scandal free, defined by the lack of criminal charges filed against his appointees; still, it is early. After Uribe was out of office, some of his political appointees were jailed for corruption, such as Uribe’s deputy transportation minister Gabriel Garcia Morales, and his agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Árias.

On the other hand, Duque’s attorney general and personal friend Francisco Barbosa has been seen by many to do his best making the charges that got Alvaro Uribe arrested “go away.”

Colombian President Ivan Duque does not seem like an evil person or a mean man. He may be a fairly competent administrator in the bureaucratic sense. On the other hand, he has had almost four years to demonstrate leadership and statesmanship in a country with bitter divisions, and promising economic prospects clouded by vast inequality and social stratification where it seems like the rich and poor are living in two completely different countries.

Duque has been impacted by factors out of his control such as the COVID pandemic and the Venezuelan refugee crisis. In both cases, his response deserves some praise. It must also be said that crime and insecurity seem to be on the rise, especially in rural areas beyond the cosmopolitan neighborhoods of Bogotá and Medellín. The extreme poor don’t seem to be any less poor. Colombia lost its investment grade rating under Duque’s administration. The president is left with few friends and many detractors, even within his own party.

On May 29, Colombians will go to the polls to vote for president. If no candidate wins a majority of votes, the top two candidates will go to a runoff on June 19. According to law, the new president will be inaugurated August 7. Things can get worse, much worse. But as Duque’s four year term comes towards a close, there is a practical consensus in Colombia that things could have been much better.