The Ministry of Tourism of the Dominican Republic was present at the fair with an official stand, inaugurated in the presence of the Minister of Tourism, David Collado. During the inauguration, the minister highlighted the importance of the Colombian market and initiated a series of cultural and business activities that will strengthen relations with the country’s tourism sector. “With this participation in ANATO 2025, we reaffirm our commitment to promote the Dominican Republic as a key destination and strengthen our relationship with Colombian tourism, a strategic ally for the growth of the sector,” Collado said. The inauguration was also attended by the media, who highlighted the relevance of this event for the tourism industry.

As part of its strategy to strengthen the Colombian market, the Dominican Republic held a successful roadshow at the Sheraton Hotel in Bogotá, where it presented the latest developments in the destination. The event brought together travel agencies, representatives of the hotel sector, and renowned international public figures, who lived first-hand the experiences that the country offers its visitors. This roadshow, like other events organized during the fair, is consolidated as a key space for the generation of business, the strengthening of commercial relations, and the promotion of new opportunities in the tourism sector.

The Ministry of Tourism of the Dominican Republic was present at the fair with an official stand. Photo credit: LLYC.global.

Colombians’ interest in the Dominican Republic continues to rise. In 2023, 305,655 Colombian tourists visited the country, and in 2024, the figure grew to 335,819, evidencing a constantly growing demand. A key factor has been air connectivity, with more than 3,600 flights operated in 2024 between the two countries. Of these, 50% depart from El Dorado Airport in Bogotá, and more than 60% of passengers arrive directly in Punta Cana. Airlines such as Copa Airlines, Avianca, Arajet, Wingo, and Air Century have played a fundamental role in the consolidation of these routes.

In addition to Punta Cana, the Dominican Republic has diversified its tourism offerings, positioning new regions such as Costa del Ámbar, Miches, Samaná, and Santiago. These destinations offer a unique combination of nature, luxury, history, and culture, with paradisiacal landscapes, eco-adventures, and vibrant urban centers with a rich gastronomic tradition.

To strengthen its relationship with the tourism sector, the country has “DO Travel Rewards”, a loyalty program aimed at travel agents that has trained and connected more than 20,000 professionals around the world with the hotel industry, generating new opportunities and value offers for travelers. With its outstanding presence at ANATO 2025 and the support of the Ministry of Tourism, the Dominican Republic reaffirms its commitment to the Colombian market, consolidating strategic alliances and presenting its wide tourism offering to continue attracting more travelers in the coming years.

Headline Image Credit: LLYC.global.

Police records show there have been 5,399 cases of theft reported in metro Medellín during the first 9 weeks of 2022 compared to 4,538 cases the year before: an increase of 16%. Medellín proper is showing a rise in property crime of 20%, while Envigado has managed to remain stable with only a 1% increase.

Thefts in Medellín are becoming more brazen and violent, and often victims are attacked as part of the theft even when not resisting. In 2021, 19 foreigners died violent deaths in Medellín. Just last month, Australian Nat Ware was shot in the tourist neighborhood of El Poblado in a robbery, even after giving up his valuables. Ware was in Medellín to launch a program training low income Colombians in technology, preparing them for professional employment.

The same month, expatriate contact center executive Manuel Morales was gunned down after leaving the El Tesoro shopping mall in the exclusive Las Palmas area of the city. Also in February, the diners at the luxury Click Clack hotel in Medellín were robbed when a thief dressed in black and wearing a bulletproof vest brazenly walked in and held a stickup, robbing jewels, smartphones and wallets.

Hurto masivo Anoche en el hotel Click clack en el poblado.

Sujeto ingresa con arma de fuego y
Se robo varias joyas de alto valor , celulares, billeteras. Estaba en la puerta del restaurante @PoliciaMedellin @region6policia @seguridadmed @sebaslopezv @QuinteroCalle pic.twitter.com/t4kPphRg9n

— Denuncias Antioquia (@DenunciasAntio2) February 26, 2022

Rising Homicides

While homicides are near historic lows, and a tiny fraction of the high of 6,809 in 1991 during the drug wars, they are rising significantly. In 2021 there were 9.2% more homicides than the year before, a historic low of 369, even lower than the crime rates in the 1970s. The tourist mecca of Poblado has seen a 400% increase in homicides going from 2 to 10, and the quieter, but still popular Laureles neighborhood has seen homicides rise 78% from 9 to 16.

Lower income neighborhoods are also seeing an increase. On the city’s north side, away from exclusive hotels and fancy restaurants, Manrique has seen a 54% increase in homicides, and Aranjuez a 36% rise.

Where is the mayor?

They mayor of Medellin since 2020, Daniel Quintero has a public relations slogan: “Medellín va bien,” or “Medellín is going well.” Last October, he tweeted “In Medellín, committing crimes is getting more and more difficult. When the civic group “Medellín Como Vamos” conducted polling on public sentiment that showed growing discontent with his administration, he dismissed the group as being funded by local businesspeople and presenting selective data. Though in his same tweet touting how tough it was for criminals, he showed a graphic that cherry picked data showing a homicide reduction for the month of September and for youth homicide.

En Medellín cometer crímenes es cada vez más difícil: En septiembre tuvimos una reducción del 15 % en homicidios, comparado con el mismo mes del año pasado. Además presentamos una reducción del 75 % en los homicidios a menores de edad. Toda vida es sagrada. pic.twitter.com/tkkdTExCPY

— Daniel Quintero Calle (@QuinteroCalle) October 1, 2021

Four weeks after the mayor’s “tough on crime” tweet, a spectacular gold heist, like something out of a Hollywood movie, took place on the busy Las Vegas Avenue, again in the higher income, international-friendly Poblado district. At least 11 criminals made off with over 3 kilograms of gold.

July of last year, 15 heavily armed thieves dressed as police and SIJIN (Colombia’s police task force responsible for working with Interpol) stole 400 million pesos in cash and 12 kilograms of gold from the Forum office building in Medellín’s wealthy “Milla de Oro” (Golden Mile) business district, just steps from the Santa Fe shopping mall.

Safety for visitors

Last week, two Chilean visitors to Medellín were robbed at gunpoint of their Rolex watches in Las Palmas near a major thoroughfare. Fortunately for them, the police reacted quickly and were able to recover the timepieces and make arrests.

#Medellin | una hora después de estos hechos, en una rápida acción Policial y la articulación de las cámaras de la ciudad, se logra recuperar los elementos hurtados a esas dos personas e inmovilizar los vehículos dónde se movilizaba los delincuentes >>> pic.twitter.com/WGbHXD8hPN

— Guardianes Antioquia Oficial (@Guardianes_Ant) March 19, 2022

While no one deserves to be a victim of crime, there are several common sense measures that foreigners and citizens alike can take while visiting Colombia, especially large urban areas, or Caribbean vacation spots. Remember, everything starts with situational awareness. Know your surroundings and be alert at all times.

1. Don’t wear expensive watches or gold necklaces. Colombians don’t, and neither should you. You will not see Colombians walking around with expensive jewelry on the street because of the risk of theft. A pedestrian wearing these expensive items will not look wealthy, he will look clueless.
2. Don’t use your high-end smartphone on a busy street. If you must make or take a call, best to duck into a corner store or coffee shop, buy a soft drink and conduct your business there. If you wish to take a photo, that’s fine but just look around and be sure you aren’t the object of anyone’s attention.
3. Don’t carry lots of cash. The vast majority of retail establishments and commercial restaurants in Colombia accept bank cards like Visa and Mastercard. Leave your stash in your hotel safe, or a secure area of your apartment, and don’t walk around with more cash than you expect to spend that same day. ATMs, or automated cash machines are widespread in Colombian urban areas, and generally work fine with foreign cards enabled for international transactions.  When withdrawing cash or purchasing items with a bank card in Colombia, you may be presented with the option of accepting a conversion from pesos to dollars. Generally you want to decline this, as they are almost certainly offering you an unfavorable rate compared to your own bank or financial services provider. Of course, rural areas and small artisan vendors or “mom & pop” restaurants may not always accept charge cards. Large shopping malls often have options for licensed money exchangers. Be sure to count your money and store it in your wallet or purse before leaving their service counter.
4. Be careful partying with strangers. In the US and Europe, we hear about “date rape drugs.” Similar substances are used in Colombia to rob tourists—and Colombians of their belongings. Even when the police investigate, few tourists have the means in time or money to stick around for the prosecution to make its way through the courts, so with no witness, the criminals eventually go unpunished. Some criminals have a modus operandi targeting foreign visitors, using for example, attractive young women or friendly “bros” who know “where the party’s at” as bait.You may notice that when liquor is ordered at most clubs and bars in Colombia (but not in international hotels), the bottle is opened at your table in your presence. This is to show you that the drink is not adulterated, and the bar staff is not “slipping anything into your drink.” When drinking with people you do not know, do not leave your drinks unattended. Drinking a beer and headed to the restroom? Take your beer with you.

5. Be prudent about transportation. Taxis in Medellín are generally straightforward, and the price in pesos is whatever is shown on the taxi meter. The official white cars to and from the airport operate at a fixed rate, which you should confirm before leaving. In Bogotá, the taxis have a notoriously bad reputation, and even many Colombians avoid them, using either Über, or InDriver ride hailing apps. InDriver has the advantage of allowing the passenger to “make your own offer” of how much you wish to pay. It also takes a much smaller cut of the fare, so the drivers prefer it. In Cartagena, there are no taxi meters so be sure to agree on a price before entering the taxi. Most business hotels also can arrange transportation with providers they know and trust.. You can rent a car in Colombia but understand that there is no legal limit for blood alcohol. Driving with any detectable alcohol in your system whatsoever is an arrestable crime.
6. Don’t abuse drugs! Not only is it illegal in Colombia, and Colombian prisons are not pleasant, illegal narcotics are often a means of delivery of the disabling hallucinogens like Rohypnol or the more common Scopolamine, made from a flowering tree found in Colombia distantly related to the Tomato. Crime victims are often reluctant to report the crime because their drug use will show up in the resultant medical attention. The situation is worse when the victims are not fluent in Spanish, or don’t have resources to pay for medical care. Along abusing drugs, public drunkenness is not only ugly, it puts you at risk for victimization by criminals.

Con apoyo de la tecnología de cámaras de video vigilancia de la ciudad recuperamos los elementos hurtados a 2 ciudadanos extranjeros en el sector Las Palmas.

La denuncia es importante para judicializar a los responsables de este hecho. #ImplacablesContraElDelito @seguridadmed pic.twitter.com/xXaZQEVUhe

— BG. Javier Josué Martín Gámez (@PoliciaMedellin) March 19, 2022

Here are some of the reasons why:

• Police Brutality — The often-heavy handed police response to protesters has raised the temperature in the country. Colombians, especially the youth remember recent incidents of police brutality, including the macabre killing of law student Javier Ordóñez last year in a Bogotá police station which sparked protests against police brutality…sparking more police brutality in a counter-response! In this age of camera phones and social media, acts that would previously go unreported now are witnessed by millions. Multiple cases of police brutality have been witnessed and acknowledge even by the Colombian government’s own human rights ombudsman. These further angered protesters and poured fuel onto a fire that quite possibly would have burned out last week.
• “Let Them Eat…Eggs” — Marie Antoinette had her apocryphal “Let them eat cake” quote before ending up beheaded in revolutionary France. Colombia’s package of tax hikes and revenue measures was already going to have a challenge getting through Congress, but when Duque’s Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla made media rounds to talk up the need for fiscal reform (which in some form is absolutely necessary to pull Colombia back from a fiscal and monetary crisis), he may have condemned his own brainchild to derision and failure after a clown-show performance in an interview with media personality Vicky Dávila.
  

  “On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.”

  Carrasquilla demonstrated how far out of touch he was with Colombian consumers when Davila asked him if he knew how much a dozen eggs cost in Colombia;  Carrasquilla proposed adding Colombia’s 19% VAT tax to basic foodstuffs like eggs and rice, also to gasoline and funerals, while exempting firearms and sugary soft drinks. Carrasquilla’s answer? “On the issue of eggs, it depends on its quality. Let’s say $1,800 COP (48 cents, US) a dozen or something like that.” A dozen eggs in Colombia costs an average of approximately $8,000 COP ($2.20 USD), though that price may fluctuate widely based on grade, packaging and purchase channel.  Colombians immediately seized on this to lambast Carrasquilla, Duque, and their political clan as inept elites completely detached, unaware of, and unconcerned with the struggles of most Colombians. Whether true or not, the public now had memes for their discontent. Carrasquilla was known for being media-shy and publicly reclusive, but he inadvertently became an effective spokesperson for his own opposition. Like Marie Antoinette, Carrasquilla was soon relieved of his duties…but kept his head.

• Broken Promises — Commitments the current administration made during massive strikes two years ago have not been made. Once strikers called off protests after President Duque promised to work with them, nothing happened. This time around, protesters don’t trust the president. Though he has stated that his fiscal reform package would be withdrawn, many simply don’t believe him. Percy Oyola, president of the strike organizing group called General Confederation of Workers (CGT), explained that the government “has had the opportunity to address and resolve claims since the large mobilizations carried out in November 2019, but it never set out to install a negotiating table and concertation. On the contrary, (Duque) always stigmatized and acted with violence against protesters.”
• Targeted assassinations — The anger over the Duque administration’s failure to address the rising massacres and targeted killings of social activists and ethnic leaders is at a boiling point. The current administration has done its best to sabotage the historic peace accords negotiated by former President Juan Manuel Santos, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. The Duque administration prefers to pretend the massacres aren’t happening, even conjuring up the term “collective homicides” in the apparent hope that calling a cat a dog can get it to bark.
• Close criminal ties — Duque’s political allies have lost credibility. His political godfather, former president and current Senator Alvaro Uribe left office in 2000 hailed as a hero who made Colombia safe from communist guerillas and open to investors and tourists. As the years have gone on however, revelations about human rights abuses during his term, including government massacres of innocent civilians not involved with insurgency have come surfaced, along with evidence from the none other than the US State Department that Uribe, in the US government’s words “almost certainly had dealings with the paramilitaries.”
  

  Photo of Marta Lucia Ramirez by Felipe Castaño, Vicepresidency of The Republic

  Uribe is currently facing charges and was for several weeks under house arrest for witness tampering and attempts at bribery.  His own brother Santiago Uribe has served 4 years in prison, charged with murder and forming the “12 Apostles” paramilitary death squad. His trial only ended in February, and the judge has yet to issue a ruling.Duque’s own Vice President Marta Lucia Ramirez carefully crafted a political reputation as a crime fighter, but within the past two years it was revealed that she paid $150,000 USD to bail out her own brother, who was convicted in Miami for heroin trafficking. Just months before she tried unsuccessfully to sue investigative journalists into silence when Insight Crime revealed that she and her husband did a real estate deal with the alleged paramilitary commander and elusive drug kingpin Guillermo Acevedo, also known by his super-villain alias Memo Fantasma.

• Contempt for Human Rights — People are furious with the Duque administration’s human rights reputation. Duque’s political party, the Centro Democratico attacks anyone who raises the issue of human or civil rights as a communist or insurgent sympathizer. They have openly verbally attacked civil society organizations, and even government human rights agencies such as the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), a tribunal tasked with adjudicating just punishments while reintegrating and reconciling former combatants with society. Retired Colombian General Luis Humberto Poveda called human rights activists “rats & assassins.” The United Nations stated it had grave concerns regarding persistent violence, misuse of the Colombian armed forces by the Ivan Duque administration, and the inability or lack of will by the government to implement the peace process agreed to by the previous administration of Juan Manuel Santos, or to protect human rights activists. Just over a year ago, the Colombian army was caught with an “enemies list” of social activists, journalists, and even elected Colombian senators!  Beyond the President’s own shrinking core of partisans, Colombians just don’t believe the current administration is serious about peace or security, especially security for those not aligned with President Duque.
• COVID Pandemic Failures — The health emergency and resulting economic emergency has been mismanaged according to many. Though the Duque Administration has taken the current pandemic seriously and not tried to deny it like former US President Trump or current President Jair Bolsonario in neighboring Brazil, The slow deployment and scarcity of vaccines has left many frustrated. Colombia is still vaccinating only the elderly, with some exceptions such as for health workers. No vaccines are available for the average Colombian, while many wealthier Colombians have flown abroad to get vaccinated. Currently, health curfews are in effect across many Colombian regions, and the tourism industry has been devastated, leaving many restaurants, hotels and entertainment venues permanently shuttered. Though the President talks often about the Coronavirus Pandemic, urging citizens to take precautions, he has not delivered with the vaccines. Most Colombians have no idea whatsoever when a vaccine will be available for them.
• Militarization — Strike organizers are demanding a “Demilitarization of the cities,” while legislators from his own Centro Democrático party are demanding that Duque impose an internal state of emergency and deploy the Colombian military to quash protests. So far Duque has resisted such a move, but were he to do so, violence and civil unrest would certainly spiral out of control. Though both are currently under the minister of defense, Colombia’s police force and military are separate, and the military is generally not used for urban civil policing. Colombia’s military is largely focused on combatting remaining Marxist insurgents, policing Colombia’s vast wilderness areas and sparsely populated regions, enforcing the borders, and contraband interdiction. The Colombian military is not trained for nor configured for quelling public disturbances. This evening, fake news was spreading across social media networks, with a doctored image of a decree from Duque declaring a national state of emergency and assuming special powers. The image was false, though Duque has made it clear that he would not rule out such actions if necessary.
• Angry Cabbies — Other specific groups with their own axes to grind have taken advantage of the protests and strikes to advocate for their own causes. Taxi drivers in the past days have implemented their “Turtle Plan” which intentionally snarls and blocks traffic. They are upset about a bill being considered in congress that would legalize ride sharing platforms such as Über. The services are technically illegal in Colombia but extremely popular and operate anyway.
• Ticked off Truckers — Truck drivers have also created massive blockages throughout the country. They say they are protesting Duque’s fiscal reform package, but also the increases in tolls and gasoline prices generally. Several toll booths on major thoroughfares have been torched, along with the controversial “fotomulta” traffic cameras that automatically issue fines and penalties to drivers. Truck drivers have stated that they don’t believe Duque when he says that he is withdrawing his tax package.
• Health Reform Legislation — A less famous but still controversial health reform bill has also been widely panned by members of the medical community, and strike leaders have demanded its retraction. It would reorganize and regionalize national health care delivery and add new powers to the national government to regulate and control distribution of health care. The new law would mandate the assignment of a primary care physician that some believe would serve as a medical gatekeeper.
• The “Communists!” — International interference, though many would be tempted to dismiss as far-fetched cannot be completely ruled out. Colombia currently is host to at least 2 million Venezuelan refugees, some of which have been confirmed and outed as spies and intelligence operatives of the Venezuelan government and their Russian allies. Last December, a spy scandal erupted in Bogotá when Russian spies were exposed and expelled from Colombia. Venezuelan government spies have also been exposed and detained by Colombian authorities, such as last year’s public case of Gerardo José Rojas Castillo. The most credible voice making such allegations come from none other than Ecuador’s President Lenin Moreno. Serving as vice president under Socialist former president Rafael Correa and actually named after Vladimir Lenin, President Moreno has stated unequivocally that Ecuadorean intelligence has detected political and economic interference on the part of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. According to Moreno, Venezuelan government operatives are fomenting violence, crime and rioting to disrupt peaceful protests and provoke a strong government response. This allegation must be taken seriously by anyone with an understanding of the situation at the street level.

Los centros de investigación de Ecuador ?? y Colombia ?? detectaron la injerencia desde Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro en la violencia que azota a Colombia.

La entrevista: https://t.co/EKV4ECCna8

— Lenín Moreno (@Lenin) May 5, 2021

• Old Fashioned Thuggery — The common criminal element is also undoubtedly an ingredient, specifically with regard to the looting and acts of violence. Large protests will almost always have some criminal element hoping to take advantage of the situation to loot or take advantage of police distraction to commit other crimes. While Colombian professional cyclist Jarlinson Pantano was himself protesting the fiscal reform package along with the employees of his bicycle shop, looters took advantage of his absence and completely emptied his store of its inventory of bicycles and accessories. Common criminals take advantage of large protests and busy police to commit crimes, damaging the image of the protest movement in the process.

Gracias gamines de mierda por vaciar mi tienda ??? ratas, sale uno con la ilusión de marchar pacíficamente y se encuentra con unos desadactados de mierda ?? gracias por acabar el sueño de mi familia ???

— Jarlinson Pantano (@jarlinsonpantan) April 28, 2021

These national protests are expressions of discontent that go far beyond a package of tax hikes. There is widespread discontent and distrust of the current administration on a myriad of topics. Colombia must desperately pass some form of fiscal reform to balance the national budget, but President Duque and his Centro Democratico no longer have the political capital to sell such policies to Congress and the Colombian public. The Centro Democratico party has a small but vocal base of die-hard militants, but they are now a small minority in Colombia, holding only 19 of the country’s 108 senate seats, and 32 of Colombia’s 172 seats in the house of representatives.

Sergio Fajardo, former governor of Antioquia and former mayor of Medellín. (Photo Credit: Inter-American Dialogue)

Colombia’s attorney general Francisco Barbosa, a friend of the president, has brought criminal charges against former Medellín Mayor and Governor of Antioquia, Sergio Fajardo for contract irregularities during his time as governor. Many across the political spectrum in Colombia have widely denounced the charges as a naked attempt to derail Fajardo’s presidential ambitions. Fajardo, a center-left politician and math professor came in third in the last presidential elections, setting up a runoff between Ivan Duque and former revolutionary and leftist senator Gustavo Petro. Many Colombians have expressed disdain for both the far-left ideas of Gustavo Petro, who served a disastrous term as mayor of Bogotá from 2012 to 2015, or the strident far-right authoritarianism represented by Alvaro Uribe’s (& Ivan Duque’s) Centro Democratic party.

Presidential elections take place next year. Hopefully Colombian politicians and the Colombian public can call a truce and calm tensions enough to battle through ballots in the upcoming months rather than through police bullets and the Molotov cocktails of thugs and rioters.

What did we leave out or get wrong? Please respectfully comment below under “share your thoughts!”

Over the next several months and years, various investigations were carried out by the FBI and by other US federal agencies as well as an investigation by Congress. Some personalities already in government positions at the time had to resign, some ended up on trial, others in jail. Some entities among them disappeared including the infamous remembered Cambridge Analytics. But President Trump took possession even survived an impeachment trial and after all, today he is in the race for a re-election that does not It looks as easy as it could have been.

Foreign intervention in any way in the election system in the US is illegal. However, that is the legal theory. In practice we have already seen how different types of foreign forces have managed to influence the elections in one way or another: Mexico through its descendants in the states of the west coast of the country; Cuba since the 1960s has been generating influence in federal politics, especially in the southern state of Florida. And it is there, where now a group of Latin Americans with dual nationality and voting power are today a topic of interest in the debate on political proposals. So four years later, things are still similar with a new protagonist: Colombia.

While it is true, Colombia remains a country of little importance in international politics and is almost unknown to the natives of the United States, the Andean country has taken an unusual importance in recent months given that the State of Florida put a large number of members in the electoral College to win the presidency of the country as it happened in both 2000 and 2016.

Florida, before the second world war, had not been important in the game of power in Washington. Things began to change with the arrival of the Cubans who settled in Miami and Tampa and little by little, taking positions of importance, turning South Florida into an epicenter of the US foreign relations game with Latin America. Years later, Central Americans, Haitians, Brazilians, Argentines, and more recently Venezuelans and Colombians also arrived.

Some of those Colombians in South Florida have been playing a media game in recent weeks that could influence the balance of power in Washington with the upcoming election on November 3^rd. The Colombian-American votes, divided between both contenders, on the one hand, influenced by some members of the Centro Democrático (Democratic Center) party from Colombia, could reach about 300,000 votes that would weigh upon the result without a doubt—without necessarily violating the rules of foreign intervention in the electoral apparatus and thus determining the end result for a new president in the White House.

“We continue in our work to support the passengers who need us most right now to return to their homes. We have transported Peruvian passengers from Punta Cana, Cancún, Miami and Bogotá to Lima. Also, we mobilized Colombians who were stranded in Lima to the Colombian capital. And, in this case, with this special flight from Houston, we continue to fulfill our promise to work together with the authorities to contribute to the well-being of people, ”says Félix Antelo, president and CEO of the Viva Air Group.

The flight left the George Bush International Airport in Houston, Texas at 1:27 Wednesday afternoon (April 23), landing at El Dorado International Airport in Bogotá at 6:50pm. Arriving passengers were subject to health protocols and safety measures established by Migration Colombia, including mandatory preventive isolation and individual health examinations.

See also: Stuck Inside (or outside) Colombia? Here Is What You Should Do Now (click)

In addition to humanitarian assistance, Viva Air has been in constant communication with industry organizations and government agencies to analyze and develop strategies to guarantee the stability of the commercial aviation sector once restrictions are lifted.

Finance Colombia: Sergio, here in Colombia we are up to 31 deaths and 906 verified cases of COVID-19 (as of 4:12pm, 31 March 2020). So far, government measures seem to be followed by the general population, though we have seen some isolated cases of looting, and we are seeing a lot of potentially dangerous misinformation circulating through social media. How do you see the situation evolving as we go into April? Will the government be able to maintain calm and compliance?

Sergio Guzmán: Thanks Loren. I think the most important thing here is to recognize that nobody was prepared for the crisis we now find ourselves in. To a certain extent all the dynamics – good and bad – that we Colombians encounter on a daily basis have transferred to the virtual world. We see that fundamentally this is a public health crisis that will have serious economic repercussions, as it evolves, we will see that the economic malaise will drive political discontent due to the dire circumstances some people find themselves in. Depending on how the government manages this—and so far they have done what best they can—this can evolve into more widespread unrest as people begin to exhaust the meager savings they have and begin facing food shortages. The government has rolled out a subsidy program, which will be well received by those who already receive government subsidies, but will not necessarily reach those informal workers who need it most, this will be even more difficult for migrants and those living in rural areas.

Finance Colombia: We are coming up on Semana Santa, the week before Easter, which traditionally is the most important travel week of the year. It looks like this year it will be a complete write-off, and devastating for the domestic tourism sector, as well as for the dollars that the Colombian diaspora usually brings home at this time. Do you expect ripple effects from a security standpoint?

Sergio Guzmán: I think it is too early to tell from a security standpoint what exactly will happen and the ways in which this virus will change us as a society. First, I think it is important to highlight that the ELN just declared a unilateral ceasefire in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, I think the dynamics of organized crime vary significantly from one region to another with some groups taking advantage of the virus to extend their territorial control in some parts such as Cauca, Catatumbo, Chocó and northeastern Antioquia. Third, cocaine trafficking will likely continue undeterred by the measures enacted by the government to face the pandemic. From the point of view of urban security, our forecast is that security risks will increase especially with regards to common and petty crime, particularly coming to the end of the quarantine period and its possible extensions.

Finance Colombia: The Duque administration was unpopular going into this. Politically speaking, will this pandemic strengthen or weaken his administration, with two years to go until election time?

Sergio Guzmán: At the beginning of the crisis, the central government and local governments showed a lack of coordination and embarked in political pettiness. I think it is important to highlight that local governments were inaugurated on January 1st, which means that we’re now at that 100-day mark when many local officials have to show their constituents who they are and how they intend to govern. However, as the crisis progresses, President Duque has seen his legitimacy increase as a result of the crisis. Going forward, we are likely to see more coordination and President Duque’s legacy will be judged by how the public interprets he managed this moment. That doesn’t mean that the opposition will allow the government to steamroll legislation any time soon – especially nothing that has to do with the implementation of the peace agreement – but that the government has earned itself some goodwill that if well-managed, can mean a great deal for Duque’s future.

Finance Colombia: Almost simultaneous with the COVID-19 Pandemic, a petroleum price war broke out between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In December President Duque pulled a billion dollars out of Ecopetrol, the state-controlled petroleum company. The plunge in petroleum prices, the correlated plunge in the Colombian Peso, this has to be devastating to the country’s fiscal condition and budget. Does this materially limit the room the government has to maneuver to face these crises?

Sergio Guzmán: Absolutely. Oil revenues account for 26% of government income, more than 60% of exports, and an important source of employment both in urban and rural areas. The government has usually relied on Ecopetrol as its main source of income and an important source of investment in rural areas, this will now be cut dry as Ecopetrol has been forced to cut its budget in a major way for 2020. Fiscally, the government started the year in a weak position, which has been now further weakened by the economic crisis worldwide. The passage of the Economic Growth Law, though heralded as positive for business, meant that the government would collect less taxes in 2020, and critically in 2021. The government expected to curb this shortfall with economic growth and welcoming environment for international investment that would attract money to the country. The crisis has turned that idea on its head. Further the government is constrained by the Fiscal Rule, which limits the amount of debt the government can take on.

Finance Colombia: Colombia still has an economy very dependent on things like retail, textiles, manufacturing. These aren’t things that can be done “work from home.”  How long can the business sector—and the employees, afford to stay shut down? Avianca was already teetering on a precipice before this crisis. Tecnoglass is in much better shape but still, completely shut down and gave everyone a vacation through Easter. I can only imagine how this is affecting tourism-dependent cities like Cartagena and Santa Marta.

Sergio Guzmán: Every single sector will be affected by the crisis. No doubt about it. The forecast for growth for Colombia has already fallen from 3% to -3%. I don’t think the business sector can hold on to current conditions for more than another quarter. In the current circumstances, cash is king, and the businesses who have cash in the bank will be able to weather the crisis better than those who do not. Public pressure is taking hold of employers who engage in layoffs or decree pay cuts to their employees, but there is growing pressure for people and businesses not to pay their debts. I don’t think this is likely to happen, but we do live in an age of moral hazard.

Finance Colombia: Tell us a little bit more about your consultancy, Colombia Risk Analysis. What does your firm do, and who are typical clients? When is it best for potential clients to reach out to you, and how can they get in contact with you?

Sergio Guzmán: Colombia Risk Analysis is a local political risk consultancy where we help companies and organizations understand the evolving circumstances and how it affects them allowing them to make better business decisions.  Our ability to produce research, reports and intelligence in both English and Spanish makes us an asset for both local and international clients who need actionable information and no-bullshit analysis. We work with companies in all types of sectors including mining, oil and gas, finance and insurance, transportation and manufacturing. Right now clients are figuring out the direction in which the virus is headed and how the government decisions will impact their bottom line, soon their concern will grow over issues such as security and social unrest.  Potential clients can reach out through our website (www.colombiariskanalysis.com) or over email (info@colombiariskanalysis.com). We have a great and active following on Twitter (@ColombiaRisk) and we are also present on LinkedIn.

“By virtue of Colombian law, we are declaring a sanitary emergency hand in hand with the guidelines of the World Health Organization. A pandemic has been declared and that corresponds to us taking faster and faster measures,” said the president at his Unified Command Post.

The president ordered the cancellation of all public events with over 500 attendees, suspension of cruise ship traffic, and in some cases, the preventive isolation of foreigners in hotels, nursing homes, and isolation for ethnic groups consistent with their world view. The president’s office went on to clarify that this means ethnic groups will be able to apply their own norms and beliefs in compliance with the health orders, such as preventive isolation.

The national soccer tournament scheduled for this weekend has been closed to the public, though the game will be played without fans—unless events determine otherwise, he announced.

For at least 10 days, prison visits will be suspended, and no prisoners will be released, in an attempt to control the virus.

The business sector is being invited by the government to institute flexible and virtual work policies in accordance with occupational and workplace health and safety guidelines.

President Duque reiterated the call for Colombians to adopt care and prevention measures, including constant hand washing with ample soap and water.

2.2 million of those visitors were nonresident foreigners, 479,000 were Colombians living abroad, and 215,000 were cruise passengers.

“We work in an integrated way to strengthen the [tourism] sector, which we do coordinating with businesspeople, service providers and territorial entities,” said deputy minister of tourism Julián Guerrero Orozco (above).

During that period, 26.4 million people traveled via airlines. 17 million of those traveled on domestic flights and 9.4 million on international flights. This reflects growth in air traffic of 10.4% over the same period in 2018.

“Tourism is a sector that can take advantage of the strengthened dollar. It is an opportunity for tourists to visit our destinations since prices will be more affordable,” said the vice minister.

Domestic flight travel grew 13.2% during the first half of the year compared to the previous year. 85% of international travelers flew through either Bogotá, Rionegro (Medellín) or Cali. Santa Marta with its recently remodeled airport and increased connectivity saw an increase of 78.% in international visitors.

During the period, 3 million Colombians traveled abroad, an increase of 4.4% over 2018. 32% visited the United States, 10% went to Mexico, and 10% to Spain.

22% of nonresident visitors to Colombia came from The United States, 20% from Peru, and 17% from Panamá. According to Colombia’s national statistics agency DANE, registered hotel occupancy in July was at 59.5%, approximately the same as 2018; the two years representing the highest occupancy rate in the last 15 years for a July.

According to statistics from Migración Colombia with ANATO’s analysis applied, 97,851 Colombian nationals departed between December 2015 and February 2016 destined for European countries, compared to 74,357 departures between December 2014 and February 2015.

Paula Cortés Calle, ANATO’s president, states that the elimination of the visa requirement last December constitutes a dynamizer for tourism to “the old continent.”

ANATO President Paula Cortés Calle

“The increment has exceeded our expectations, and the interest of more Colombians in traveling to Europe opens more possibilities for travel agencies to make alliances that permit better packages, more discounts, and more possibilities for the tourist. The elimination of visas can counteract the impact of the strong dollar for Colombians who travel abroad, because they take into account the ease of documentation at the moment they make their trips,” says Cortés.

Cortes added that the links with European countries have been strengthened by the move, and there is interest in growing business and developing even further the number of Colombians traveling to Europe, and from Europe to Colombia.

Not surprisingly, Spain has seen the most visitors from Colombia since the elimination of the visa requirement, with 67,047 travelers; an increase of 26.8% from the previous annual quarter. France is next with 8.137 visitors; an increase of 19.1%. The Netherlands received 7,660 tourists, up 28.8%, Germany received 12% more visitors at 6,535l Italy grew 25% at 4,718, Portugal at 15.9% with 1,135 travelers, and Switzerland, with 991 travelers saw an increase of 38.4%.

Colombian travelers to Europe in 3 months since visa restrictions, December 2015-February 2016:

According to a report issued by the United States Department of Homeland Security’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement, there were 1,181 Colombians deported by the US during the 2014 fiscal year (FY), which starts the previous September and runs through August for the federal government. This number is far lower than for some other countries, with Mexico leading at 176,968 removals.

Graphic Courtesy U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security

According to the report, Colombia comes in at number seven worldwide, surpassed by much smaller countries such as Guatemala (54,423), Honduras (40,695), El Salvador (27,180), Dominican Republic (2,130), Ecuador (1,565), and Nicaragua (1,266). The largest non-Latin country in terms of deportations was Jamaica (938). The largest non-Americas country was China (534), followed by US neighbor Canada (457).

Overall, the report says that 89% of deportees were caught while trying to enter the US, especially deportees from Mexico and Central America. 56% of deportees were convicted criminals. Colombians made up far less than 1% of the 315,943 removals by the US government in 2014 (FY).

One disturbing trend the report noted, was the significant rise in 2014 from the previous year, of deportees from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, due to the deteriorating social conditions in those countries. Deportations to México were down significantly, only 176,968 in 2014, compared to 241,493 in 2013.