Colombia recorded more than 24 million non-resident visitors during the current presidential term and generated close to $34.43 billion USD in foreign exchange from travel through December 2025, figures released by the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (Ministerio de Comercio, Industria y Turismo, or MinCIT) show. The ministry says tourism has become one of the country’s largest sources of foreign exchange, surpassing traditional export sectors such as coal and coffee.

“Today, Colombia demonstrates that it can also generate wealth from its biodiversity, its cultural heritage, the quality of its services and the talent of its people.” -Diana Marcela Morales, Former Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism

The figures were presented during the Foro Internacional de Turismo: Colombia, un destino por explorar (International Tourism Forum: Colombia, a Destination to Explore), held in Bogotá on July 15. The event brought together tourism associations, business leaders, academics and government officials to discuss the sector’s performance and future, including regenerative tourism, artificial intelligence, smart mobility and innovation in visitor experiences.

Promoted under the campaign Descubre la Diversidad de Colombia, El País de la Belleza (Discover the Diversity of Colombia, the Country of Beauty), the ministry reported that more than 24 million non-resident visitors arrived during the administration of President Gustavo Petro, representing a 109% increase compared with the previous equivalent period. Of those arrivals, 14.8 million were foreign visitors.

According to the Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, tourism generated approximately $34.43 billion USD in foreign exchange through December 2025, exceeding revenue from coal and coffee exports. Tourism has also become the country’s largest services export, with 57% of services export earnings coming from the sector.

“For decades, much of the country’s capacity to generate foreign exchange was tied to the export of raw materials,” Former Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Diana Marcela Morales said. “Today, Colombia demonstrates that it can also generate wealth from its biodiversity, its cultural heritage, the quality of its services, the talent of its people and the confidence that millions of people place in choosing the country as a destination. Tourism expresses, perhaps like few other sectors, that transition toward a more diversified economy with greater added value.”

Employment has also expanded alongside visitor growth. Figures from DANE (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics) show that accommodation and food service activities supported approximately 1.8 million jobs in February 2026, a 15% increase compared with the same period in 2019. During 2025, the sector accounted for 4.4% of Colombia’s national value added.

International demand has continued to grow during 2026. In the first quarter, more than 368,000 international airline tickets were sold with Colombia as the destination, representing a 16.7% increase over the previous year. The largest source markets were the United States, Brazil and Mexico.

During the first two months of 2026, approximately 10 million passengers traveled through Colombia’s airports, an 8% increase across domestic and international traffic. Between January and March, the country received 1.58 million non-resident visitors.

The government has also expanded tourism investment beyond major destinations. MinCIT reported that infrastructure projects—including trails, docks, boardwalks and gastronomic plazas—have reached 699 municipalities, representing 63% of Colombia’s territory. According to the ministry, 207 municipalities received tourism investment for the first time.

The ministry also said tourism initiatives now cover all 140 municipalities included in Colombia’s Programas de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial (Development Programs with a Territorial Focus, or PDET), a post-conflict development framework for areas historically affected by armed conflict. Through its Turismo para una Cultura de Paz (Tourism for a Culture of Peace) strategy, more than 999 businesses have joined the Colombia Destinos de Paz (Colombia Peace Destinations) certification.

“Unlike other economic activities, whose benefits tend to concentrate in specific production centers, tourism generates value precisely where a country’s natural, cultural and historical heritage is located,” Morales said. “It is a bridge that connects different cultures and brings opportunities to intermediate municipalities, strengthens rural economies, energizes small businesses and creates incentives to conserve what makes each territory unique.”

Headline Photo: Beachside in Barú, Colombia (photo by Loren Moss)

The bill’s passage is uncertain, particularly with the 2026 presidential elections approaching. However, the breadth of the proposed changes warrants close attention. A summary of the key provisions, based on a document from PwC, is outlined below.

Value Added Tax (VAT)

The proposed reform includes several significant changes to the Value Added Tax (VAT) system:

• Online Gambling: Online gambling would be permanently subject to VAT, a measure that is currently in place temporarily until the end of 2025. This would also require non-resident operators to register for, collect, and file VAT where applicable.
• Filing Frequency: The VAT filing frequency would be standardized to every two months for all registered suppliers, a change from the current system, where some businesses file four times a year.
• Input VAT Creditability: The window for claiming input VAT credits would be reduced from eight to six months.
• Self-Charging VAT: Large taxpayers would be required to self-charge VAT on taxable services imported into Colombia.
• Fuel Oils: Taxation on fuel oils would be increased through adjustments to the taxable base and higher rates.
• Cultural and Sporting Events: Recreational, cultural, and music festivals, as well as sporting events, would be subject to a 19% VAT.
• Low-Value Shipments: The “de minimis” exemption for low-value shipments would be eliminated.
• Digital Services: The VAT exemption for cloud computing, hosting, and software licenses for digital content would be removed. This change is likely to impact non-resident providers selling services to VAT-unregistered customers in Colombia.

Energy Sector

The energy sector would also see significant changes:

• Extraction Tax: A 1% tax would be imposed on the extraction of coal and oil for domestic sale or export. This would apply to taxpayers with a taxable income of $585,000 USD or more in the previous year.
• Coal Producers: The income tax brackets for coal producers would be tightened, aligning them with those for oil producers.
• Renewable Energy: The 50% “super deduction” for qualified renewable energy projects would be replaced with bonds redeemable over 15 years. Supplies for these projects would become zero-rated.

Corporate and Capital Gains Tax

Several changes are proposed for corporate income and capital gains taxes:

• Financial Industry Surcharge: The surcharge for the financial industry would increase from 5% to 15%, in addition to the 35% headline corporate tax rate.
• Deductibility of Expenses: Withholding tax would become a prerequisite for the deductibility of costs and expenses.
• Amortization: Tax amortization of fixed-term assets and shares would be permitted.
• Capital Gains Tax: The capital gains tax for lotteries, raffles, and gambling would increase from 20% to 30%. The 15% rate for the sale of fixed assets would remain, but the required ownership period would increase from two to four years.
• Non-Resident Dividend Tax: The tax on dividends paid to non-residents would increase from 20% to 30%.

Personal Income Tax

The proposed reform would also impact personal income tax:

• Withholding Tax: The current withholding tax system, based on a 12-month average, would be replaced by a system based on monthly income tax brackets. The top marginal rate would increase from 39% to 41%.
• Dividend Tax Credit: The dividend tax credit for individuals would be eliminated.

International Taxation

The bill includes several provisions related to international taxation:

• Sale of Shares: For direct sales of shares, non-resident sellers would be required to provide proof of filing and tax payment to the local recipient’s agent. Both the agent and representative would be jointly liable for any outstanding taxes.
• Indirect Sales: Joint liability would be introduced for any unfiled income tax returns from the seller in indirect sales.
• Corporate Restructuring: Corporate restructurings using “effective place of management” rules would need to be reported to the tax office and in financial statements.
• Information Exchange: Failure to provide data for automatic exchange of information could result in the closure of bank accounts.
• Permanent Establishments: Taxation for permanent establishments would be aligned with the rules for tax residents.
• Related Parties: Limitations on costs and deductions for related parties would continue to be lifted if they are arm’s length compliant, but withholding tax would still be due where applicable.

Digital Taxation

The proposed reform also addresses digital taxation:

• Significant Economic Presence: The tax rate for taxpayers with a “significant economic presence” who elect to file annual income tax returns would increase from 3% to 5%.
• Digital Assets: Digital assets would be outside the scope of income tax, except where they represent underlying assets. They could also be eligible for tax amortization.
• Indirect Disposal of Assets: The indirect disposal of assets in Colombia through the international transfer of digital assets would become subject to income tax.

Tax Amnesty

The bill includes provisions for a tax amnesty program:

• Penalties and Interest: Penalties and interest could be reduced under certain circumstances for unfiled returns, unpaid taxes, or ongoing tax disputes, provided the underlying tax is fully paid.
• Undeclared Assets: Underreported assets or over-reported liabilities as of January 1, 2026, would be subject to a 15% complementary tax rate, without triggering penalties or interest.

Miscellaneous Provisions

Other notable provisions include:

• Excise Tax: Excise tax rates for beers and liquors would be leveled to 30%, with a broadened taxable base based on liquor content.
• Amended Returns: The window to file amended returns to pay more tax or increase a tax receivable would be tied to the statute of limitations (3 or 5 years).

The proposed tax reform is extensive and could have a significant impact on businesses and individuals in Colombia. As the bill makes its way through Congress, taxpayers must stay informed of any developments.

Finance Colombia will continue to monitor the progress of this legislation. Readers are encouraged to follow financecolombia.com for the latest updates.

Gustavo Petro at his 2025 Labor Day rally. Photo credit: Presidencia de la República de Colombia.

This value also represented more than half, 52.7%, of everything that Colombia sold to the world in those six months.

“The behavior of what the country exported in the first six months of the year in products other than oil and coal, ratifies not only the behavior that non-mining exports have been registering for months, but also that step by step we are advancing in the transformation of the productive fabric and the diversification of the export basket. From the commerce, industry, and tourism sector, we continue to provide entrepreneurs in the regions with all the instruments and institutional offer to guarantee the sophistication and expansion of the offer,” said the Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism, Diana Marcela Morales Rojas.

In volume, shipments also continue to increase. Between January and June, there were 5.1 million tons, for a growth of 9.6% compared to the first half of 2024. Within the non-mining basket, the exports that had the greatest weight in the period of analysis were those of the agricultural sector, which accounted for 43.7% ($5.615.9 million USD) and grew 36%.

Products such as coffee stand out, whose exports in the 6 months grew 81.3%; flowers, 9.9%; bananas, 6.2%; Hass avocado, 27.6%; Tahiti lemon, 15.7%, and gulupa, 23.3%, among others. The second most representative group of products of exports of non-mining goods in the period was industry, which participated with 40.8% ($5.252 million USD) of this basket and a growth of 5%.

Exports of aluminum doors, windows, and their frames stood out, among others, with an increase of 9.5%; insecticides, 18.8%; electrical transformers, 12.9%; medicines, 9.3%; and beauty preparations, 3.7%. Products from the agribusiness sector, which accounted for 15.5% ($1.989.7 million USD) of the non-mining energy export basket, registered an increase in sales of 37%.

Products such as palm oil, whose exports grew 64.1%; coffee extracts and essences with an increase of 45.7%; sugar, 14.3%; cocoa and its derivatives, 87.3%, and bakery products, 8.7%, among others, boosted the sector’s performance.

90.4% of exports of non-mining energy products were made from nine Colombian regions: Antioquia, from where they grew 25.9%; Bogotá, which increased 16.5%; Cundinamarca, 16.5%; Valle del Cauca, 14.8%; Atlántico, 6.6%; Bolívar, 9%; Caldas, 47.3%; Magdalena, 45% and Huila.

The latter was the one that reported the highest increase, with 50%. Its non-mining foreign sales totaled $624.2 million USD in the first six months of the year, marked by coffee.

In June alone, the country exported $2.112.6 million USD in non-mining products, which represented an increase of 20.4%. In volume, 774,248 tons were shipped for an increase of 9.6%.

Avocados. Photo credit: JohnyVid from Pixabay.

Talking of trade, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia reported that exports unsurprisingly dropped 0.8% in February. This was driven by a 17.5% decline in commodities with both oil and coal suffering. On the bright side agricultural exports increased by 18.7% however with domestic demand continuing to drive imports expect another lumpy deficit for the month.

At the beginning of the week, in a surprise to the majority of analysts, the Banco de la República – Colombia voted 4-3 to leave overnight rates at 9.50% – exactly where they were in December. This somewhat quashes the theory that Gustavo Petro has ‘stacked’ the central bank with his people after replacing two governors recently. Committee chairman Leonardo Villar continued with his cautious tone – the concern is primarily the rapid expansion of the economy and the potential impact on inflation. Thus far in 2025, CPI has drifted up slightly, with manufacturing production, retail sales, and import data all pointing toward a warming price situation.

That said, the fight that has been brewing for a year, broke out, with Petro directly accusing the central bank of politicking, simply trying to put a brake on an expanding economy to reflect poorly on him. Personally, in terms of this decision I’m not convinced however, over the past 6 months there has definitely been some meddling, given the collapse in inflation. There is no way rates should still be at 9.5%.

The president will at least be boosted by the latest unemployment data for February, with the national figure at 10.3% versus 11.7% a year ago. Adding to the positive impression is that it is the lowest February number since 2017. That said, the employment base is growing, and it still leaves 2.7 million without work – the caveat, of course, is that Colombia’s informal employment stands at 50%+, and knowing the exact number of people not working is tough.

Aside from this, another week of political riff-raff, boring in the extreme.

Have a great day.

Roops.

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Photo credit: Banco de la Republica.

This year, the fair presented important novelties, including the inauguration of the “Tourism with Purpose” stand, a space dedicated to sustainable and inclusive tourism projects. Representatives of rural tourism, indigenous communities, the LGBTIQ+ population, and enterprises focused on accessible tourism for people with disabilities participated in this stand.

Likewise, the “Excellence Colombia” stand was highlighted, bringing together initiatives recognized for their high tourism quality standards. In addition, the momentum of the stands of “Heritage Towns” and “Colombia, Destinations of Peace” was maintained, the latter with the participation of 80 entrepreneurs who, through tourism, transform their territories.

A positive day

During the three days of the event, more business relationship meetings were held between various actors in the sector, with deals estimated at $54 million USD, with 80% of the information processed (according to ProColombia). The general balance of the Tourism Showcase, the most important event in the country in terms of tourism, confirms that the sector continues to consolidate itself as a key engine for national economic growth, with positive prospects for the end of this year.

At the inauguration, President Gustavo Petro highlighted: “The purpose is to replace foreign currency resulting from the extraction of non-renewable resources, such as coal and oil, with tourism, which is a sector that generates more employment and is more productive.”

For this purpose, MinCIT held strategic meetings with territorial entities and international authorities to establish lines of joint work and generate opportunities for the country’s tourism development through bilateral alliances. Among these are the meeting with the Minister of Tourism of Argentina and the meeting with the Director of Air and Maritime Access of the Puerto Rico Tourism Company, in addition to meetings with countries such as Cuba, China, and the Dominican Republic.

Colombia continues to consolidate itself as a leading destination in the region. The positive results of this edition show that articulated work between the public and private sectors is the key to strengthening the industry and positioning the “Country of Beauty” in the global tourism scenario. Photo credit: ANATO.

Regarding the growth of tourism, the Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism, Luis Carlos Reyes, explained that the sector already exceeds coal in foreign exchange earnings. In addition, he said: “Although the goal of the four years is to reach 7.5 million non-resident visitors to Colombia, there is optimism about the possibility of exceeding these figures, since tourism is a point of consensus among all Colombians; something we all agree on, in that it not only brings foreign currency to the country, but also opportunities for people from traditionally excluded places.”

On the other hand, the General Manager of Fontur, Fernando Estupiñán, had a full agenda with tourism service providers and local authorities to provide support and project the development of high-impact tourism initiatives. Among the agreements reached is the signing of the agreement with the Mayor’s Office of Providencia and Santa Catalina for the implementation of efficient nautical signage for the beaches of the island of Providencia, with an investment of more than $4000 million.

The Anato 2025 Tourism Showcase not only exceeded expectations in terms of participation and completed business but also reaffirmed the role of tourism as a key driver for the country’s economy

Similarly, a meeting was held with the Ministry of Cultures, Arts and Knowledge, in which joint actions were defined to strengthen the destinations of the Macondo Route in a sustainable and friendly way with local communities. This inter-institutional articulation seeks to promote the safeguarding of intangible heritage, collective memory, and economic development of both the territory and local inhabitants.

“In the last editions of this Tourism Showcase, we see more and more qualified and complete offers from each of the entrepreneurs and destinations that participate. This demonstrates the importance of Fontur, which carries out fundamental work to promote tourism quality and accompany territorial entities and tourism service providers. A very clear example is Mompox, where last year, important investments were made to improve the tourist infrastructure in the Albarrada, which allowed to increase its promotion at this fair,” said Fernando Estupiñán.

Award for the best stand

The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism and Fontur awarded, for the third consecutive year, the most visited and creative stands of the Anato 2025 Tourist Showcase. In this edition, the winners were chosen by public vote, who chose their favorites.

With a total of 126,064 votes, the first three places with the highest scores were awarded. The winners received media plans for the promotion of their territories and financing of up to 100% for their participation in the next edition of the fair. The winners were:

• Third place: with 11,933 votes, the department of Buenaventura, which received a media plan package worth $40 million for the promotion of the destination.
• Second place: Boyacá, with a total of 16,369 votes. The department received a media plan for tourism promotion for $80 million.
• First place: Caquetá, which received 16,581 votes from those attending the event. As a prize, the department will obtain financing for the development of its stand at the Anato 2026 Tourist Showcase, which includes the rental of the space, design, assembly, and disassembly, for a value of up to $200 million.

The Anato 2025 Tourism Showcase not only exceeded expectations in terms of participation and completed business but also reaffirmed the role of tourism as a key driver for the country’s economy. With a clear commitment to sustainability, inclusion, and innovation, Colombia continues to consolidate itself as a leading destination in the region.

The positive results of this edition show that articulated work between the public and private sectors is the key to strengthening the industry and positioning the “Country of Beauty” in the global tourism scenario.

Headline Image credit: ANATO.

Today, good news only. Let’s chat about Colombia’s continued home run, tourism. Whilst Gustavo Petro was only picking up the baton of the upward curve that had existed since COVID-19 finished, he strongly declared that tourism would eventually replace commodities in terms of dollar revenues and was the fastest form to lift needy communities out of poverty.

Last year saw (tourism) dollar revenues hit $10 billion USD, not quite at commodity level, but closing very fast, and Colombia is only just beginning to realize it’s enormous potential as a desirable destination. The United Nations has also supported globally the concept of decreasing poverty via tourism, and there is a huge drive to push that campaign forward.

This week, ANATO Vitrina Turistica, the largest tourism fair in the region, took place in Bogotá. A total of 5,000 companies were represented across 46 countries with 50,000 attendees. I was there, and the pavilions were hopping; at times, it was like New Year’s in Times Square. Equally, at FITUR in Madrid a month ago, Colombia was in play.

2024 was a record year, and already, 2025 is set to surpass those numbers. In January, international airline arrivals increased by 13% to 2,254,000. Attendees at ANATO also reported a healthy start to the year.

But it will not be Medellín or Cartagena that will be the forward-looking driver. Instead, it will smaller towns and villages as visitors locally join the international tendency to seek more adventurous destinations. Some future hotspots haven’t been heard of by most Colombians, let alone by those arriving from overseas.

When will it match oil & coal? Judging by the vibes in the pavilions, it will possibly be sooner than expected, but in an ideal world, both will continue in rude health.

In other news. From Fedesarrollo, there was an improvement in both industrial and retail confidence, this dovetails with the recent consumer reading.

The government also announced that it had carved out 69 sectors, spread across 270 square kilometers, for future offshore eolic energy auctions—that’s wind power to us mere mortals.

Always good to end on the positives.

Have a great Friday.

Regards Roops.

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Photo credit: wjgomes from Pixabay.

The big economic headline was Q4 GDP from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística — DANE Colombia, which was at (2.3%) to the top of expectations, according to Fedesarrollo. That is a 0.6% increase QoQ. The biggest contributions were from commerce/transport (+4.4%), public sector (+4%) and agriculture (+6.5%). The underperformance was from mining which dropped 5.9% driven by weak coal numbers. This brought us to a full-year GDP growth of 1.7%—very much as expected by the same analysts who are predicting 2.6% for 2025 which would be a solid number.

Elsewhere, Ecopetrol announced its latest reserve data. Oil now stands at 7.6 years (little changed) whilst there was a drop to 6.7 years for gas—combining the two there was a marginal increase when compared to 2023. Finally, total production of oil or equivalent rose to 250 million barrels in 2024—the highest in 9 years. The sector is in flux and work needs to be done, but still not the disaster often reported.

More chaos with the pension reform, as the constitutional court received 57 lawsuits against the government. All this does is jam up the court and stop the sector from getting on with life. Amidst all this chaos, the Peso has had a decent week thus far ($4098) and remains one of the best-performing currencies in 2025—albeit off a low base.

Have a great day.

Roops.

Never miss Rupert’s latest commentary.
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Headline Image Credit: hangela from Pixabay.

The Cerrejón coal mine owned by Switzerland-based Glencore, is the largest economic actor in Colombia’s La Guajira department in the far Northeast of the country near the Caribbean Sea and the Venezuelan border. The open-pit Cerrejón mine has had its share of controversy, with many local people, including the indigenous Wayúu opposing the mine, while others support it and depend upon it for their livelihoods.

During the 2024 Minexpo mining industry event organized by industry trade group Asociación Colombiana de Minería, or the Colombian Mining Association, Juan Carlos García Otero took the time to speak with Finance Colombia’s Executive Editor Loren Moss for a brief but intense interview where nothing was off limits.

Garcia, who is Cerrejón’s social affairs manager, spoke about the mine’s record regarding social and environmental responsibility, touching upon coal’s role in the global energy transition.

Loren Moss: Well, I am here with Juan Carlos García Otero. Thank you for your time. Here we are at MinExpo in Medellín. Tell me about your role and about the company you represent.

Juan Carlos García: Thank you so much, Loren. My name is Juan Carlos García Otero, I am the social affairs manager at Cerrejón. My area is in charge of securing the social license for operating our mine on La Guajira, for the benefit of all the people in that department, but also of the people in this country.

Loren Moss: Well, Cerrejón is, I think, the largest operating mine in Colombia. It’s a coal mine in La Guajira. Tell me, how many employees do you have?

Juan Carlos García: Look, maybe I should clarify that our measurement is not necessarily based on the size. The biggest and most important thing we have, that we are sure of, is that when it comes to people we are the largest. Why? We have over 12,000 employees, between direct ones and contractors, who are linked to the company and make all the development of their own lives and families through the mining operation in Cerrejón. So, in that sense, we are strongly convinced of the importance and significance it has for the department that that work connection happens.

Loren Moss: Because it’s the largest powerhouse in that region of Colombia — from Valledupar to the Atlantic coast — I cannot think of a company with more local economic impact. Tell me please, in general terms, about the importance for the economy of department capital Riohacha and La Guajira.

Juan Carlos García: Cerrejón represents between 55%-60% of the department’s gross domestic product. In that sense, we are a fundamental cornerstone of the development of the region. But we also signify over 105 billion Colombian pesos in social investment that we have done throughout last year through commitments and voluntary and mandatory executions.

We have had over 60 million liters of water delivered to a region that still needs additional efforts in order to provide water for the whole population, and in which we have increased in the last year almost 50% of that volume that we delivered.

We are a fundamental part, with over 11 billion pesos delivered in taxes and royalties, which represent almost 50% of what is delivered by the entire mining industry in Colombia. And in that regard, we leverage the whole country’s development in a fundamental way.

In that sense, I think we truly are protagonists of the development of the region and of Colombia.

Loren Moss: I visited the area on a trip. I was not there for anything related to your company but I stayed at your hotel. That hotel is wonderful — with a view of the mine in the distance. Really, it’s like the best hotel in the region. We went to visit Manaure. Anyway, another thing I noticed when we visited some rural villages — some Wayúu people — is that there was not even a mobile signal or electricity. You are not the power company and you are not the phone company. But apart from the employment and everything, can you tell me about the contribution you offer to the region?

Juan Carlos García: Look, a few things to tell you: The first is that the hotel is not ours, we promoted the arrival of investment for that hotel to be built, and we have a small participation that serves a social purpose in its development. We are basically leveraging tourism, we are strengthening the development capabilities of the community from that area, so that they can get to know the region — besides the existence of Cerrejón. La Guajira is a department worth getting to know, and we are aware that we need to make contributions and to leverage others’ investments to make that happen.

Now, you said you got to know communities, and you say they are not related to us. But they are! And, actually, if you look at exhibits at this exposition, we can see there are communities that we have brought here. Because part of our effort is to generate capabilities and development so that those cultural, productive, and employment activities can happen in the department. And so that people can offer their products in a direct way with better commercialization. So, what we do there is strengthen those capabilities.

When it comes to development, our contributions are focused on facilitating that the different actors — governmental in this case, when we are referring to energy matters — can carry out their functions. In that regard, we have been part of the solution, contributing with our assets to problem-solving, like in the case of Uribia. At this moment, we have some preliminary agreements that allow us to facilitate the access to Cerrejón’s power line, for the improvement of the power in that municipality. And in Manaure as well.

Additionally, we have facilitated our resources to achieve the connectivity of a very important area, the harbor area and Cabo de la Vela, to the national electrical system. If that construction had not been done with Cerrejón’s assistance, those communities would probably not have achieved that — or not have been on the path to attaining such development — through the ultimate entities responsible, the state and the local operator.

So, what do we do? We incorporate ourselves into the solution. We are aware that we are not the solution. But we are more aware that we are part of the solution that can be achieved in La Guajira.

The entrance to 2024 Minexpo, the largest annual gathering for the mining industry in Colombia. (Credit: Loren Moss)

Loren Moss: Well, you are doing really necessary work. It’s needed. There are many places that depend on coal, but long-term, in many places — including the president here in Colombia — they do not see it as an ultra-long-term thing. What is your position as a producer of a product that is necessary now for the short and medium term? And when talking long-term, what is your plan as a company? What is the long-term environmental plan, so it can be successful as a business — but also make long-term contributions with everything that‘s changing in the environmental setting?

Juan Carlos García: I understand. Look, I think that you are touching on many variables that would not be responsible of me to address. Because I am not the one managing them. I am not the one managing the world’s energy matrix. I am not the one who defines how the production of energy will be managed — or how it will be managed in other places.

I cannot give you an answer in that sense. But what I can make totally clear for you is that we, today, have a commitment — and it is to make the most of the entire Cerrejón operation from the standpoint of the people. Meaning, on the basis of the people being able to understand the opportunity that a mining operation represents in an area that needs development. And we need to leverage that effort so that they, when coal stops being part of their reality definitively — a part of their environment — whenever that may happen, they have the alternatives. They will have visualized the options and have built a future leveraged on this reality today that allows us to help them the way we do.

Loren Moss: Here at the event, at MinExpo, we have members of the Wayúu community. Some are producers of dairy, artisans, and musicians. As a big sponsor at this MinExpo event, tell me about the activities you do to promote the development of not only the Wayúu people, but also for all the people who live there in the local area and La Guajira?

Juan Carlos García: Well, look, I believe you would need a show with many episodes for me to tell you everything. But I am going to tell you about only some of the things we do, and I will try to do a run through things we have here.

I want to start off with the musicians. We have an orchestra here, and we do a great amount of work so the guys stay away from vices — from drugs, from activities that are not positive — and connect with music from the point of view of their tradition and their culture. We try to make it possible for music to be a job alternative, like it is for over 50 guys who have been in the orchestra and today do that job professionally. That is part of what we believe in.

We also support sports. We have a huge commitment to strengthening football [soccer] — a sport that is valued and appreciated in La Guajira — and of a championship that we sponsor — and from which [Colombian and Liverpool FC superstar] Luis Díaz came out. You’ve probably heard of him and he has been in those championships.

We continue to believe that strengthening those spaces is useful — not only because of what it signifies, like stories as important as Luis’ — but for the amount of people that distract themselves with sports and what it represents for their lives and their health.

We support enterprises. We support companies. We have companies that develop their company objectives through the direct hiring from Cerrejón so that they are able to generate economy, employment. and sustainability — as well as gain experience in the world of business and trade. They learn hand in hand with a company like Cerrejón.

Then there the artisan crafts. A few years ago, the artisans only produced the supplies, and they would sell it to third parties that were the ones earning the profits. We have been working on strengthening the designs, strengthening entrepreneurship, strengthening the capabilities — and that allows them to make the sales themselves. We take them to every fair event that we can, and they make their own sales directly. That has led, for example, to them surpassing over 100 million pesos in sales last year at the Expoartesanías fair in Bogota.

We have also worked on the culture. We build hand in hand with the communities, including Wayúy and black people in that territory, and that is are very valuable and they teach us very important things. But we also need to highlight their language, their traditions, understand them, and co-exist with them.

That is just part of what we do. Here, at the fair, we have brought only a small sample. But, without a doubt, if we get the chance we can tell you about it in greater detail later on.

Looking back on the week several data points were published – none of which were particularly positive:

Inflation for November was 0.77% – higher than expected, again driven by food which rose 1.5% MoM. This led us to a 12m reading of 12.53% – the highest since March 1999. At this juncture it looks like the Banco de la República will have little choice when it sits down next week but to increase rates from 11-12%. That would be in line with the terminal rate being predicted by analysts in surveys held by entities such as Bloomberg and Fedesarrollo.

Exports for October were so disappointing I was driven to produce a special video. They may have risen FOB 10.9% but that is masking the real situation. Over 90% of that increase was due to coal and the increase in global prices – to highlight that in tonnage terms Coal fell 8% YoY. Oil was an even worse read with a 6.9% drop in dollar terms and 11.1% in tonnage as 11,839 barrels were shipped, down 12.1% YoY.  Expect another ugly trade deficit number when Imports are published.

Remaining with oil for a second, it is worth noting that despite a week in which the black stuff has fallen 10%, the Peso has held up well.

Fedesarrollo released the Consumer Confidence November and at -24.8% it was below both expectations (-21.4%) and October (-19.5%). No one can be overly surprised – the tax reform may now have been completed, which has lowered the political temperature, and the economy may be running strong – but there are enough headlines around pointing to a slowdown in both Colombia and overseas, to worry most people.

Finance Minister Ocampo was discussing the Current Account Deficit this week and felt things are going in the right direction. Whilst Colombia is likely looking at a 7% deficit in 2022, there is the expectation for a Primary Surplus in 2023 – that would equate to a deficit of 4.3%. Looking further out – a figure of 1.7% is expected for 2024.

We started this note discussing the fact that Colombians are on their travels – and we end it noting that a number of Medellin executives from the ‘GEA’ were in Abu Dhabi in meetings with IHC who recently, in conjunction no doubt with the Gilinski group, tendered for a stake in Grupo Nutresa. There are conflicting reports – was it a visit or was it an invitation? No doubt the situation will continue into 2023.

Please find LinkedIn Video Below:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rupert-stebbings-927b6316a_what-jumps-out-the-week-that-was-colombia-activity-7006956121542283264-BMHe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops

The Peso hit and stayed above 5,000, many have asked if that is a fair level. The market always dictates but it does feel more of a self-fulfilled prophecy as opposed to a rational level.

As expected, President Petro declared a Climate Disaster Emergency as the ongoing La Niña threatens to continue into 2023. The amount of funds to be appropriated have yet to be announced but with 2,500 reported ‘events’, 453,000 people affected, 203 deaths and 37 missing, every Peso is welcome after the worst “winter” in 40 years.

Rupert’s opinions & analysis as an independent expert contributor are his own and not necessarily those of Finance Colombia or the BVC.

Petro met with Maduro of Venezuela this week. It is a delicate situation with many Colombians, but the border is now open and more airlines are asking to operate the routes. The first month saw a modest $2.5 million USD in trade – but from small acorns……….

Export data for September disappointed once again with exports totaling $4.778 billion USD – up on the $4.582bn of the previous month but missing the consensus of $4.97bn. The number was up 26% YoY (FOB) but only 7.7% in tonnage terms. Coal was the main driver in both FOB (76% of total increase) & Tonnage (+14.1%) but oil whilst rising on a FOB basis, dropped 7.5% in Tonnage terms, precisely when the country needs to be cashing in on favorable prices.

PMI for October came in at 50 – there are no consensus estimates on this but that isn’t a great reading. Even in 2020 the number was at 51.7 – even as the country was still struggling with Covid.

Perhaps the macro highlight was the unemployment data for September. Both the Urban (10.45%) and Total (10.70%) numbers continue to trend downwards. Also, YoY those two categories have added 1.02mn and 10.7mn new jobs respectively over the past 12 months.

CPI data is due tomorrow (Saturday) with the expectation that we will be above 12% for the first time since April 1999.

Related to this I was finally relieved to see some debate in the press as to why the Central Bank only makes rate decisions at 8 of their 12 meetings – to me an utter nonsense of a concept. In November there will be no decision even if inflation goes to 14%? There is a mechanism whereby they could move rates in an emergency, but why back yourself into that corner?

Please find below the video on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rupert-stebbings-927b6316a_what-jumps-out-self-fulfilling-prophecy-activity-6994247241225936896-EZgS?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

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That is about it for today – remember these are just themes that jump out at me – please refer to your local analyst, economist, salesperson or soothsayer for more details.

My regards to all,

Roops