With less than two weeks remaining before Colombia’s presidential election, whose first round is scheduled for May 31, three candidates are concentrating most voter support and competing for access to the presidential palace, Casa de Nariño: ruling coalition senator Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left-wing Pacto Histórico party; senator Paloma Valencia, representing the right-wing Centro Democrático party; and lawyer and businessman Abelardo de la Espriella, a figure of Colombia’s far right.

Although 13 candidates will appear on the ballot, two contenders: Clara López and Luis Gilberto Murillo, withdrew their campaigns to support Cepeda, while the remaining candidates have failed to surpass 3.5% voter support in pre-elections polls, a figure close to the statistical margin of error.

If polling trends hold, no candidate is expected to secure the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright in the first round, making a runoff election on June 21, 2026, highly likely.

Cepeda has remained relatively stable in polls, with voter support ranging between 35% and 43%, effectively securing his place in a second round if trends continue.

The key question: Who will face Cepeda in a runoff?

The main electoral uncertainty centers on who will finish second and challenge the ruling coalition in a likely runoff.

Under Colombia’s electoral system, only the two candidates receiving the highest vote totals advance to the second round. The fragmentation of the political right has complicated efforts to consolidate support behind either Valencia or De la Espriella.

Polls suggest a competitive scenario. Valencia has registered between 14% and 21% voter support, while De la Espriella fluctuates between 16% and 24%, depending on the poll and methodology used.

The lack of unity between the two camps stems from both ideological differences and their political structures. Valencia is a member of the political party founded by former President Álvaro Uribe, while De la Espriella entered the race through an independent signature campaign, marking the first time Colombia’s far right has emerged as a viable contender for the presidency.

A campaign shaped by the absence of public debates

The presidential campaign has been marked by an unusual lack of debates among the leading candidates.

Cepeda has refused to participate in events organized by media outlets, arguing that proposed formats do not offer guarantees of neutrality or what he describes as “fair rules” established by news organizations.

As a result, part of the political confrontation has shifted to Congress, where both Cepeda and Valencia currently serve in the Senate.

Critics, however, have challenged Cepeda’s decision. Former Bogotá Mayor and presidential candidate Claudia López argued that his absence from debates reflects that “Cepeda does not want to take responsibility for the failures of Total Peace (Paz Total),” the negotiation policy with armed groups promoted by President Gustavo Petro, in which Cepeda played a key role as a lawmaker.

Instead of regular debates, the campaign has been dominated by disputes over media formats, digital presence, social media strategies and public controversies aimed at amplifying candidates’ visibility.

De la Espriella embraces confrontation

One of the candidates who has most effectively capitalized on the digital environment is Abelardo de la Espriella, whose political strategy has been compared to right-wing populist leadership styles such as those of Argentine President Javier Milei and US President Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, De la Espriella has faced several media controversies, including an incident involving journalist Laura Rodríguez of Piso 8 FM, for which he later apologized after accusations of inappropriate sexual conduct. He also clashed live on air with television presenter María Lucía Fernández of Caracol Noticias, whom he called “ignorant.”

Questions also emerged following reports by digital outlet La Silla Vacía regarding donations linked to the US Republican Party.

Despite the controversies, the strategy appears to be strengthening his electoral standing. An Atlas Intel poll for Semana magazine, published May 15, showed De la Espriella surpassing Valencia by a two-to-one margin for the first time, with 32.9% support compared with 16.7%.

However, the polling firm is currently under investigation by Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) amid concerns over whether its methodology complies with national standards. If irregularities are confirmed, the firm could face suspension of its operations in Colombia.

Valencia seeks to broaden support toward the political center

Meanwhile, Valencia has sought to expand her electoral base by shifting strategically toward the political center.

As part of that effort, on May 17 she officially introduced her proposal “Mámá No Está Sola (Mom Is Not Alone),” aimed at female heads of household and focused on access to credit, employment and housing property. The proposal also includes a promise to deliver 1 million homes prioritized for women community leaders.

Valencia’s candidacy also marks a historic first for Colombia’s political right: it is the first time a major conservative party has nominated a woman for president.

Her vice presidential running mate, former Bogotá councilman Juan Daniel Oviedo, has openly identified as a member of the LGBTQ+ community, a move that represents a significant shift for the Centro Democrático traditionally conservative electorate.

Colombia appears headed for a runoff

With a highly fragmented field and no signs of consolidation among right-wing candidates, Colombia appears increasingly likely to hold a presidential runoff on June 21, 2026.

Barring a major shift in polling trends, the contest seems set to come down to Iván Cepeda and whichever opposition candidate manages to emerge from an increasingly competitive battle within Colombia’s political right.

Petro received 23.5% of the responses in the poll conducted by Invamer, while Fajardo garnered 20.2% among those asked who they would vote for if the election was held tomorrow and the listed candidates were on the the ballot.

That results, detailed by Colombian magazine Semana, were particularly favorable for Gustavo Petro, who finished second in the final poll of 2017 when he received support from just 14.3% of Colombians.

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Former vice president Germán Vargas Lleras (15.6%) and Humberto de la Calle (11.0%), who was the lead governmental peace negotiator in talks that ended more than a half-century of conflict with the FARC in 2016, also each accounted for more than 10% of the responses.

Iván Duque (9.2%), Clara López Obregón (4.2%), Juan Carlos Pinzón (3.4%), Viviane Morales (2.2%), and Piedad Córdoba (1.7%) rounded out the field.

(Pollsters also conducted a second ballot scenario in which Marta Lucía Ramírez replaced Duque as the right-leaning coalition candidate. The results were similar. Ramírez received less support than Duque, at 7.6%, while Fajardo, at 21.6%, garnered even greater support in this scenario. Petro was virtually unchanged while Vargas Lleras and De la Calle were down slightly by less than a percentage point.)

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Controversial candidate, former FARC high commander Rodrigo Londoño, aka, Timochenko, was also among the choices presented by Invamer and finished in last place, gaining support from just 1.6% of those surveyed.

The poll surveyed 1,200 people who said they intend to vote throughout 41 municipalities in 26 departments of Colombia.

The first round of the election will take place on May 27. With it likely that no candidate will receive more than a 50% majority of the votes cast, a second-round runoff between the top two vote-getters is expected to be held on June 17.

Photo: Gustavo Petro, former mayor of Bogotá. (Credit: Prensa de Bogotá)

Restrepo, who hails from Palmira in Valle de Cauca, comes to the post after leading the Superintendency of Family Subsidy, the Ministry of Labor agency that administers social benefits. She has also served in the Colombian Senate and House of Representatives in addition to holding various local political positions in Valle de Cauca.

Photo: President Juan Manuel Santos formally appointed Griselda Janeth Restrepo Gallego as Minister of Labor today. (Credit: Presidencia de la República)

“Griselda Janeth Restrepo will be the new minister of labor,” said Santos on Twitter. “With her we will continue to promote employment and guarantee workers’ rights.” He added that Restrepo has “magnificent relations with the private sector.”

The president also thanked López for her service in the position, saying that her departure is “sad news for me” because she had helped the nation “make great progress in employment and peace-building.”

López did not announce her future plans when she stepped down. Before becoming minister of labor, she ran for president in 2014 as the leader of the left-wing Polo Democratico party, challenging an incumbent Santos during his re-election bid.

López, a Bogotá native, has also previously ran for mayor of the capital. She served as acting mayor for seven months during 2011 while leadership in Bogotá was in transition after former mayor Samuel Moreno Rojas was stripped of his position on corruption charges.

“It gives me much sadness to accept her resignation and I thank her for all her work,” said Santos about the outgoing minister. “I am sure she will continue to be a promoter of peace.”