The Colombian peso (COP) experienced a 2.1% appreciation during March 2026, driven by a recovery in global oil prices and key domestic developments. According to the latest analysis from Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA / NYSE: CIB), the performance of the currency coincided with the results of national legislative elections and recent monetary policy adjustments by the Banco de la República.

Global energy markets recorded a significant increase in crude prices throughout the month. Brent crude rose 63% to end March at $118 USD per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 51% to close at $101 USD per barrel. These price movements have been largely attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to influence international commodity flows and investor sentiment.

On the domestic front, the Gran Coalición por Colombia primary election recorded a turnout of more than 5 million voters. Market analysts indicated that the high participation rate was viewed as a positive indicator of institutional stability. Simultaneously, the Board of Directors of the Banco de la República increased the national policy interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 11.25%. This decision aligns with regional efforts to manage inflationary pressures through tighter monetary control.

International market conditions also reflect a shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Due to ongoing conflict in the Middle East and persistent economic indicators, markets currently anticipate that the US central bank will maintain existing interest rates without cuts for the remainder of the year.

Looking forward to April, the research team at Bancolombia—led by Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, Macroeconomic Manager Jose Luis Mojica, and International and FX Analyst Maria Paula Gonzalez—projects that the exchange rate will trade within a range of $3,625 COP to $3,725 COP. This forecast accounts for continued volatility and heightened uncertainty in both global and domestic financial markets.

Bancolombia (photo © Loren Moss)

The appreciation of the Colombian peso occurred despite the concurrent decline in international oil prices and relative stability of the US dollar (USD) globally.

A primary factor contributing to the peso’s strength was the monetization of resources executed by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. According to data cited from Bloomberg L.P., the government monetized approximately $1.7 billion USD in September, with the capital originating from Total Return Swap (TRS) operations. The majority of this monetization reportedly occurred during the week of September 22.

The foreign exchange inflows correlated with elevated trading activity. Several sessions recorded high transaction volumes. On September 23, traded volume reached $2.3 billion USD, a figure only surpassed by the volume recorded on March 3, 2022. Throughout the month, the USDCOP exchange rate fluctuated between $3,830 COP and $4,047 COP, concluding the month at $3,917 COP, a decrease of $98.92 COP from the August closing level. Analysis of the market indicated that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in oversold territory during multiple sessions. Data on the USDCOP performance was sourced from SET-ICAP, a local trading platform.

Monetary policy adjustments in the United States and the stability of rates in Colombia defined the global and domestic interest rate landscape for the month.

The  USFederal Reserve System (Fed) resumed its monetary easing strategy at the September 17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC reduced the federal funds rate range by 25 basis points (bp), setting the new target at 4.00%-4.25%. The decision marked the first rate cut since December 2024 and was attributed mainly to evidence of deceleration in the labor market. Individual projections released via the Fed’s dot plot indicated expectations for two additional rate cuts before the close of 2025, followed by one more in 2026, which would situate the federal funds rate range between 3.25% and 3.50% next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious stance regarding the prospect of future monetary easing.

In contrast, the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) maintained the repo rate at 9.25%. Current market consensus does not project additional rate cuts for the remainder of the year.

Analysts forecast the USDCOP exchange rate to trade within a range of $3,850 COP and $4,050 COP throughout October. This projection is reportedly based on anticipated continued global weakness of the US dollar, the cautious policy posture of the Banco de la República, and continued adjustments in capital flow dynamics.

Colombian Peso. Photo credit: Mano Chandra Dhas.

The US dollar’s global appreciation significantly drove the peso’s performance. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 3.2% in July, supported by a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), solid economic data from the US, and new international trade agreements. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, a decision that analysts cited as contributing to the dollar’s strength. US economic indicators, including retail sales, industrial production, and second-quarter GDP, surpassed expectations. GDP grew by 0.7% compared to the first quarter, exceeding the 2.5% annualized estimate.

Looking ahead, Bancolombia projects the USD/COP exchange rate to trade between $4,000 COP and $4,200 COP over the next month.

July also saw the US finalize trade agreements with several partners, including Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the European Union. Negotiations with China also resumed. These developments were noted as a factor in reducing global trade-related uncertainty, which, in turn, supported the dollar.

On the domestic front, the proposed 2026 General Budget (PGN 2026) raised concerns regarding Colombia’s public finances. The budget, which is set to increase to $557 trillion COP, faced scrutiny for a planned rise in primary spending and its reliance on assumptions of lower interest payments and higher revenues. The fiscal figures, revised within a short timeframe, contributed to increased market uncertainty and a higher risk premium for the country.

In the foreign exchange market, the USD/COP pair traded in a range between $3,949 COP and $4,205 COP during July, closing the month at $4,181 COP. This represented a $79 COP increase from the end of June. Daily trading volume averaged $1.2 billion, with an average of 1,928 transactions per day. The average intraday volatility was $46.5, which was in line with the year-to-date average.

Looking ahead, Bancolombia projects the USD/COP exchange rate to trade between $4,000 COP and $4,200 COP over the next month. The forecast maintains a depreciation bias for the peso, citing an elevated risk premium. The report also highlights international trade policy as a dominant factor, noting upcoming deadlines for reciprocal tariffs and a temporary tariff reduction agreement with China. Furthermore, the Central Bank of Colombia’s decision on July 31 to maintain its policy rate at 9.25% is expected to create upward pressure on the year-end rate. It may enhance the appeal of carry trade strategies, posing a downside risk to the peso.

Colombian Peso. Photo credit: Mano Chandra Dhas.

1. How much of a poker player is the Ministry of Finance led by Minister Ricardo Bonilla (above photo)?
2. How did the Central Bank of Colombia – Chairman Leonardo Villar justify the latest interest rate cut?
3. How weak is the peso, and will it last?
4. What were September’s unemployment figures from the National Administrative Department of Statistics – DANE?
5. How did vehicle sales fare in October, according to National Association of Industrialists ANDI and Colombian Federation of Merchants and Entrepreneurs FENALCO?
6. Why was cocaine in the news at COP16 Colombia?
7. What’s the outlook for natural gas in 2025? Ecopetrol / Empresas Públicas de Medellín – EPM.

Eclectic as you like! Thanks for your time…

Best regards,

Rupert Stebbings.