The monitor is built to anticipate Colombia’s official inflation reading before the National Administrative Department of Statistics, or DANE, publishes it. Grupo Cibest’s analytics team blends daily purchasing data from Servinformación, a company that tracks sales activity in neighborhood stores and small grocery outlets, with wholesale price information collected through DANE’s Sistema de Información de Precios y Abastecimiento del Sector Agropecuario (Agricultural Sector Price and Supply Information System), known by its acronym SIPSA. The report is signed by Laura Clavijo, Grupo Cibest’s chief economist and head of research; Arturo Yesid Gonzalez, quantitative and analytics manager; and Sebastian Ospina, data controller.

Perishable food prices drove Colombia’s food inflation in August 2026, rising 9.32% year over year versus 4.57% for processed food. (Chart: DANE, SIPSA, Servinformación; estimates by Grupo Cibest)

Perishable food prices rose 0.92% for the month and 9.32% year over year, more than double the pace of processed foods. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on Grupo Cibest data)

Perishable food prices, the more volatile half of Colombia’s food basket, swung from a 0.83% monthly decline in July to a 0.92% increase in August, pushing their annual rate to 9.32%, Grupo Cibest said in the report. Processed food prices, packaged and industrially prepared goods that are less exposed to weather and harvest cycles, rose a comparatively modest 0.12% for the month, which Grupo Cibest said was two basis points above July’s reading, implying a July increase of roughly 0.10%; the annual rate for processed food stood at 4.57%.

Perishable food prices swung from a 0.83% monthly decline in July to a 0.92% increase in August 2026. (Chart: DANE, SIPSA, Servinformación; estimates by Grupo Cibest)

Perishable food prices reversed course within a single month. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on Grupo Cibest data)

Grupo Cibest attributed the swing in perishables to “a combination of adverse factors,” naming wildfires in the department of Tolima, the advance of El Niño, and damage from the earthquake that struck Valle del Cauca and Armenia, in Quindío department. On August 10, a magnitude-7.4 earthquake centered near San José del Palmar, in Chocó department, struck a wide swath of western Colombia. As of August 24, Colombia’s disaster relief agency, the Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (National Unit for Disaster Risk Management), had confirmed 331 deaths and 240 people still missing, with damage reported across 16 departments and 494 municipalities, including Valle del Cauca, Chocó, Quindío, Risaralda and Caldas, according to newspaper Vanguardia.

At around the same time, a wildfire season in Tolima burned more than 20,000 hectares of vegetation across 13 municipalities during August, according to reporting by El Tiempo. Colombia’s meteorological institute, IDEAM, has confirmed that El Niño arrived roughly three months earlier than initially projected and is on track to reach one of the strongest intensities recorded since 1950 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Nearly every item in the fruits and vegetables segment got more expensive in August. Potatoes led the group with an 8.5% monthly jump, and prices for vegetables and legumes climbed 7.1%. Oranges were up 6.0%, rounding out the largest gains Grupo Cibest recorded for the category.

Potatoes, vegetables and legumes, and oranges led monthly produce price gains in Colombia in August 2026. (Chart: DANE, SIPSA, Servinformación; estimates by Grupo Cibest)

Potatoes led monthly gains in the fruits and vegetables segment. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on Grupo Cibest data)

The picture was less uniform for animal protein. Processed meats climbed 1.15% for the month, the largest gain in that group, while beef added 0.4%. Pork moved the opposite direction, down 0.7%, and poultry slipped 0.3%. Grupo Cibest did not explain what is driving pork and poultry lower while beef and processed meats rise.

Protein prices were mixed in August 2026, with processed meats, beef, poultry and pork posting divergent monthly changes. (Chart: DANE, SIPSA, Servinformación; estimates by Grupo Cibest)

Processed meats and beef rose in August while pork and poultry prices fell. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on Grupo Cibest data)

The estimate marks a sharp reversal from Colombia’s most recent official reading. DANE reported that consumer prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell 0.13% in July, a below-average reading in a month when the country’s overall annual inflation rate eased to 6.03% from 6.14% in June. If Grupo Cibest’s August estimate holds once DANE publishes its own figure, food would go from subtracting from monthly inflation to adding to it within a single month.

Grupo Cibest estimates food prices rose 0.31% in August 2026, reversing DANE’s official -0.13% reading for July. (Chart: DANE; estimates by Grupo Cibest)

Colombia’s food consumer price index went from an official monthly decline in July to an estimated increase in August. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on DANE and Grupo Cibest data)

Other economists are also revising their outlooks upward because of the earthquake. Citing the risk of supply restrictions, higher demand for emergency relief goods, and damage to transportation infrastructure, Banco de Bogotá‘s economic research team projected monthly inflation of 0.2% in August and 0.3% in September, with the annual rate closing 2026 at 6.8%, according to reporting by Semana. Oxford Economics offered a more measured view, noting that the Colombian peso’s appreciation of nearly 15% during 2026 has been helping offset both El Niño and the earthquake’s impact on food costs, and it expects overall inflation to hold near 6% through year-end.

Beef and beef products carry the single heaviest weight of any food category in Colombia’s consumer price index, at 1.9%, followed by poultry meat at 1.2%, milk at 1.0% and rice at 0.9%, according to the weighting Grupo Cibest published alongside its report. That concentration means price swings in cattle and poultry markets carry an outsized effect on the overall food inflation reading compared with lower-weighted items such as coffee or sugar, even when those categories move by a larger percentage.

Perishable and processed food categories carry different weights in Colombia’s consumer price index, shaping how segment-level swings feed into the headline number. (Chart: DANE)

Beef carries nearly double the CPI weight of the next-largest food category. (Chart: Finance Colombia, based on DANE and Servinformación data prepared by Grupo Cibest)

DANE is expected to publish its official August consumer price index reading in the coming weeks, providing the first confirmation of whether food prices accelerated at the pace Grupo Cibest is projecting. The reading will also feed into deliberations at Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, which has been working to bring annual inflation back toward its 3% target from the 6.03% recorded in July.

Medellín authorities seized 2,794 kilograms of beef and pork considered unfit for human consumption during a July 23 operation in the Prado neighborhood, where four people were arrested in flagrante as authorities investigated an alleged clandestine meat-processing operation.

The operation was carried out jointly by the Alcaldía de Medellín, the Policía Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá, the Fiscalía General de la Nación and INVIMA. Authorities conducted two search-and-seizure procedures at the property, which investigators said was being used for the unauthorized slaughter and processing of pork and beef.

According to information released following the operation, the meat had an estimated commercial value of more than more than $108 million COP. Authorities said the property did not have the required authorization to operate and that the meat was being handled and stored under conditions that did not comply with Colombia’s applicable sanitary requirements. Technical inspections determined that the seized products were not suitable for human consumption.

The investigation also raised concerns about where the meat was being sold. Authorities said the products were allegedly being commercialized in the Plaza Botero area and surrounding parts of central Medellín, one of the city’s busiest areas for pedestrians, visitors and informal and formal commerce.

The four people captured during the operation were placed at the disposal of the Fiscalía General de la Nación and face investigation for the Colombian criminal offense of corruption involving food, medical products or prophylactic materials. Their capture and the seizure of the meat do not, by themselves, establish a final judicial finding of guilt.

The case highlights the public-health risks associated with unauthorized meat processing, particularly where products enter commercial channels without the traceability, sanitary controls and operating permits required by Colombian regulations.

The operation also forms part of a broader pattern of enforcement against illicit or non-compliant meat activity in Antioquia. In May, the Policía Nacional reported the seizure of approximately 9,000 kilograms of meat products and the capture of one person in Donmatías, where authorities were investigating alleged violations involving food products and illegal animal slaughter. That case was separate from the Medellín investigation.

As of August, no additional publicly reported development that materially changes the July 23 account could be independently verified in the sources reviewed for this article. The four July detainees are still being placed at the disposal of the Fiscalía while the investigation proceeds.

For consumers, the operation underscores the importance of traceability and sanitary controls in the meat supply chain. For authorities, the investigation will need to establish the full scope of the alleged operation, including how the meat was processed, stored and distributed and whether additional individuals or businesses were involved.

Headline photo: Some of the meat seized by the Medellin authorities. (Photo provided by Medellín’s mayor’s office)

According to a report by the Economic, Industry & Market Research Area of Bancolombia (BVC: BCOLOMBIA, NYSE: CIB), annual inflation in Colombia rose by 25 basis points to 5.35% in January 2026. This monthly increase of 1.18% represents the highest inflation level since October 2025.

The data, originally prepared by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), indicates that 70% of the January inflation print was concentrated in the services and regulated components. These two sectors contributed 83 basis points of the total 118-point monthly increase, largely driven by the initial stages of annual cost pass-throughs associated with high indexation.

Businesses should prepare for more intense inflationary pressures in February and March 2026 as the full impact of the minimum wage increase and renegotiated supplier contracts take effect.

Sectoral Impacts and Service Acceleration

Annual inflation in the services category accelerated by 40 basis points to reach 6.33% in January, its highest level since April 2025. The monthly variation of 1.18% in this sector was nearly double the historical January average of 0.63%.

Bancolombia analysts attribute this acceleration to early adjustments linked to the 23% minimum wage increase for 2026 and indexation to previous years’ inflation. Notable increases were observed in:

• Full-service restaurant meals: 3.36%
• Prepared meals consumed outside the home: 2.38%
• Domestic services: 5.16%
• Imputed rent: 0.43%

The regulated group also saw an acceleration, with annual inflation rising to 5.47% from 5.40%. This was primarily explained by adjustments in urban transportation, vehicle fuels, natural gas, and tolls.

Food and Goods Price Momentum

Annual food inflation edged up slightly to 5.10% from 5.06%. Perishable foods saw an acceleration to 4.69% due to seasonal and supply factors affecting products such as tomatoes, potatoes, and plantains. Processed foods, including beef, milk, and poultry, reflected early-year cost pass-throughs, though annual inflation in this sub-group eased to 5.23%.

The goods category reached its highest level since March 2024, at 2.93%. Price hikes in this segment were driven by new taxes on alcoholic beverages enacted under the economic emergency, as well as pharmaceutical products. Conversely, price declines were noted in personal hygiene products, vehicles, and appliances, benefiting from the recent appreciation of the exchange rate.

Monetary Policy Implications and Forecasts

The Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la República) faces continued challenges in converging toward its 2% to 4% target range. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, reached its highest level since November 2024, indicating persistent upward pressure.

Bancolombia forecasts that year-end inflation will reach 6.4%. The analysts suggest that the full impact of the minimum wage increase has not yet been reflected in consumer prices, as many firms are still operating with inventories purchased at previous cost levels.

Consequently, the Central Bank is expected to continue raising its monetary policy rate to anchor inflation expectations. Bancolombia anticipates the policy rate could rise to 11%, noting that the challenging outlook introduces a hawkish bias to future decisions.

Photo courtesy Bancolombia

The increase in May was higher than that recorded in the same month of 2024 (0.51%). The foods that contributed the most to this behavior were tomatoes (+12.28%), coffee (+5.47%), beef (+0.7%), onions (+5.66%), and eggs (+1.02%). In contrast, products such as potatoes (-3.68%), chicken (-0.79%), fresh fruits (-0.81%), and oranges (-5.14%) showed reductions in their prices.

In the current year (January to May), the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have increased by 4.88%, placing them above the national variation (3.63%). This performance has been marked, in particular, by tomatoes (+61.38%), coffee (+26.89%), fresh vegetables and legumes (15.5%), fresh fruit (+9.83%), and beef (3.72%). In contrast, products such as bananas (6.11%), rice (1.04%), and carrots (10.13%) have contributed to mitigating the rise.

In annual terms (May 2025 vs. May 2024), the food and non-alcoholic beverages division presented a variation of 4.71%, below the national variation (5.05%), being the sixth division with the lowest increase in the period. The foods with the highest increases were chocolate (+49.24%), tomatoes (+44.95%), coffee (+28.12%), beef (+4.02%), and fresh fruits (+6.51%). Potatoes (-17.6%), tree tomatoes (-23.93%), and blackberries (-16.77%) were the products with the greatest price drops.

“The behavior of food prices confirms the importance of planning agricultural production based on technical information. Tools such as productive ordering make it possible to anticipate supply pressures, identify cycles of scarcity, and guide public policies that contribute to stabilizing prices and guaranteeing food security,” said Dora Inés Rey, director of the UPRA.

Tomatoes. Photo credit: Myriams-Fotos from Pixabay.

The prices of fresh fruits fell in products such as common mango, papaya, oranges, and pineapples. However, Tahiti lemons, mandarins, and avocados rose more than 10%, driven by a reduction in their supply due to adverse weather factors. The tubers and roots group also reported a reduction in the prices of yellow and white arracacha, as well as in bananas and cumin. Despite this, black potatoes, creole potatoes, plantains, and cassava experienced increases in their prices, especially highlighting the different varieties of black potatoes and cassava.

“Price fluctuations in wholesale markets reflect both seasonal conditions and variations in product supply. These changes are a reminder of the importance of monitoring the food market to ensure stability and access to fresh and nutritious products,” explained Dora Inés Rey, acting director of the UPRA.

In meat, pork prices fell in several cuts, while beef and chicken registered moderate increases. For their part, artisanal cheeses also had increases in their prices.

On the other hand, vegetable prices showed increases of more than 10% in products such as white onions, tomatoes, carrots, broccoli and junca onions; affected by the lower supply in the harvests due to rains in the main producing regions. The white-headed onion registered an increase of more than 10% due to the reduction in the harvests of Boyacá, Nariño and Cundinamarca.

Farmers holding Pineapples. Photo credit: UPRA.

The meeting revolved around the 25% tariff applied to steel and aluminum and to manufactures made with these inputs; as well as the general tariff of 10% that affects exports of flowers, coffee, bananas, avocados, and clothing, among other products.

The senior officials referred to seeking mutually beneficial agreements that eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers between the two countries. Colombia insisted on making progress in the sanitary admissibility of passion fruit, beef, and chicken, as well as the improvement of conditions for avocados and blueberries.

During the meeting, the minister expressed Colombia’s interest in exporting cannabis for medicinal and industrial uses to the United States, indicating that Colombia is closely following the process that the US authorities are carrying out to reclassify it in their internal regulations, facilitating scientific research for the benefit of public health and in line with the policies of Colombia’s government for the substitution of illicit crops.

Likewise, the visit to Bogotá of Daniel Watson, Deputy Representative for the Western Hemisphere of the Office of the Trade Representative, on April 29 and 30, was confirmed, to continue advancing in this dialogue initiated by the minister.

Colombia’s Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Tourism said in a statement that its economic and trade policy will continue to be oriented towards reindustrialization, diversification of exportable supply and markets, and the protection of national interests.

Colombia’s Minister of Commerce, Cielo Rusinque Urrego, and Ambassador Daniel García-Peña meet US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss tariffs on Colombian exports. Photo credit: Colombia’s Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism.

Colombia’s Commerce Minister meets US officials to address new tariffs on Colombian exports: Photo credit: Colombia’s Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism.

Between January and February 2025, the sector’s exports reached a total of $2,287 million USD, representing an increase of 29.6% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by the increase in coffee exports, which rose $418.6 million USD (86%); cocoa, with an increase of $34.9 million USD (115.3%); and beef and offal, with an increase of $27.4 million USD (209.5%).

In terms of volume, Colombia exported 436,931 tons of agricultural and agro-industrial products in February 2025, which represented a decrease of 10% compared to February 2024. This drop is mainly explained by the reduction in exports of bananas (-27%), fats or oils (-72%), and flowers (-18.4%).

However, over the past 12 months (March 2024 to February 2025), exports in value increased by 17% from the same period a year earlier. In addition, in volume, exports grew by 4.8%, highlighting the performance of products such as coffee and cocoa.

Dora Inés Rey, acting director of the Rural Agricultural Planning Unit (UPRA), commented: “The constant growth of our agricultural exports reflects the work and quality of our producers. Products such as coffee, cocoa, and beef continue to stand out in international markets, consolidating Colombia as a global benchmark. From the UPRA, we continue to promote strategies that favor the sustainable and competitive growth of our exports.”

Coffee beans. Photo credit: Pexels from Pixabay.

One of the objectives of the government’s Foreign Trade Policy is to promote the development and export of products from the industrial, agro-industrial, and agricultural sectors, moving toward a decarbonized, inclusive, sustainable, and knowledge-based economy.

Of the sectors that make up the non-mining sectors, according to the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (MinCIT) the one that registered the greatest growth in its exports was agriculture, which, although it represents 46.6% of this basket, registered an increase of 43.8% in its foreign sales.

In this segment, products such as beef stood out for their sales abroad, which increased 223.4%; coffee, 108.6%; flowers, 15.4%; and Tahiti lemon, 6.1%, among others. On the side of industrial products, a group that also includes agro-industrial products, exports increased 11.7%, and their participation in this non-mining basket was 53.3%.

Products such as palm oil, with an increase of 35.8%; electrical transformers, 22.9%; beauty preparations, 18.8%; doors, windows and their frames, 15.7%; plastics and their manufactures, 10.3%; refrigerators 8% and chocolates, candies and candies with an increase of 3.2%.

On the other hand, of the 10 main departments that export non-mining energy goods and accounted for 93.5% of those sales in the month, 9 registered growth.

These were: Antioquia, 30.4%; Bogotá, 14.9%; Atlántico, 10.6%; Valle del Cauca, 16.8%; Cundinamarca, 16.5%; Bolívar, 22.3%; Caldas, 109.7%; Huila, 67.8%, and Magdalena, 12.9%.

Photo credit: MinCIT.

Root vegetables, particularly potatoes and yams, also experienced price reductions exceeding 10% due to higher yields from areas like the Cundiboyacense plateau and Norte de Santander. In contrast, the prices of certain grains and cereals, including corn and beans, rose by up to 5%, largely due to adverse weather conditions and limited market availability.

Despite logistical challenges posed by protests, including mining and farming strikes that disrupted supply chains, wholesale food prices generally stabilized. This trend was attributed to price declines in previous weeks that helped offset October’s fluctuations.

While fresh fruits like papaya, mango, and pineapple saw price reductions, products such as lime and avocado experienced increases. Additionally, there were slight drops in the costs of beef, pork, and chicken cuts, although reductions were minimal—under 3%.

For more information on food price changes in Colombia, visit the official UPRA report.

Headline photo: Colombian criolla potatoes (photo: Loren Moss)

Notable decreases include:

• Price drops exceeding 20% for key items such as white and red onions, bell peppers, green peas, and green beans.
• A 10% decrease in prices for all varieties of potatoes, reversing a trend of sustained increases seen in previous months.

Conversely, prices for several fresh fruits, including mangoes, avocados, Tahiti limes, mandarins, grapes, papayas, and pineapples, saw increases of more than 10%.

Pork prices, as well as those for artisanal cheeses and eggs, also declined, offering some relief for consumers. Meanwhile, prices for beef and chicken rose slightly, with fresh whole chicken prices increasing by 1%.

These price fluctuations are largely attributed to an increase in supply due to harvests in regions such as Norte de Santander, Huila, and Antioquia, as well as weather conditions affecting fresh food production.

“The data this month highlights the importance of monitoring wholesale markets to better understand the dynamics impacting Colombian households,” said Dora Inés Rey, Director of UPRA. “We continue to work on providing timely information to help both producers and consumers make strategic decisions in response to market fluctuations.”

In the vegetable and tuber categories, essential products like carrots, green beans, and corn saw significant price reductions. However, cucumbers, beets, and scallions recorded price increases. Most potato varieties, yams, and Hartón plantains experienced price drops.

For fresh fruits, while items like mangoes and avocados became more expensive, other fruits such as Castilian blackberries, tree tomatoes, and lulo saw price decreases.

These shifts reflect broader trends in the Colombian agricultural sector, driven by both regional harvests and environmental factors.