The Corosito area of Pereira was typical of many parts of the city: numerous piles of rubble where houses or apartments used to stand, and even more buildings with yellow tape around them — earmarked as unfit for habitation and listed for future demolition.

The local square had been converted into a makeshift, unofficial refugee camp, complete with medical assistance from overseas and local foundations. Angel was my local contact there. He himself was living under plastic after his own home, not 200 meters distant, disappeared in the earthquake, and he hobbled around on a knee injured during the disaster.

As I joined him distributing breakfast (coffee and cookies) around the local neighborhood, we came across an enormous pile of rubble with many people scrambling over the shattered concrete. Also perched atop the rubble were two pieces of heavy machinery, scraping away at the bricks and twisted metal. Who were these men working so dangerously in the holes the diggers created?

Police had been positioned across much of Pereira to prevent the looting of collapsed buildings, but that wasn’t the case here.

It turned out that this had recently been a six-story plastic bag factory equipped with five machines worth $20,000 USD each. Now unrecognizable, the machines were being dragged out one by one, worth only their scrap value.

The subject of insurance was raised; however, the answer was right in front of me. Young men were taking the risk of burrowing under the rubble, within inches of the huge digger buckets, simply to drag out the crushed machinery and as many plastic bags as they could find. This had been going on for hours and would continue long after I had handed over the coffee and cookies.

This is a barrio that will live long in the memory, and I look forward to taking up Angel’s invitation to return in a better moment. They are beautiful, disenfranchised people who represent the very best of Colombia.

“They are beautiful, disenfranchised people who represent the very best of Colombia.”

— Rupert Stebbings

All photographs below were taken by Rupert Stebbings in Pereira.

Headline photo: An excavator clears rubble as volunteers search the wreckage of the collapsed plastic bag factory in Pereira. (Photo: Rupert Stebbings / Finance Colombia)

Historically, not only in Colombia but around the world, incoming presidents and prime ministers typically achieve only a fraction of what is promised during their campaigns. Even if 30% of commitments are delivered, Abelardo could still disappoint some of his supporters, particularly those in Medellín who became deeply disaffected with Gustavo Petro’s administration. Ultimately, only time will tell. Much has been promised, but the pudding still has to be proven.

One major challenge will be the currency, which has moved to levels not seen in many years. The peso reached COP 3,100 against the dollar on Friday, and while many had feared a move toward COP 3,000, the surprise decision by Banco de la República to leave interest rates unchanged at 12%, despite rising inflation, quickly reversed that trajectory. COP 3,200 appears possible as the week begins.

These are extremely challenging levels for exporters and, in turn, for Abelardo, who has promised a golden age for overseas sales. Key sectors such as coffee and flowers have already publicly expressed concerns about declining competitiveness. Even if the new administration succeeds in creating a new oil boom, revenues generated at current peso levels will be significantly lower than anticipated.

The past four years have been dominated by discussions around debt and deficits, which economists understand are the cumulative result of decisions made by previous governments. These pressures are unlikely to ease if the peso remains at current levels.

Consumer confidence from Fedesarrollo remains solid. Retail sales are supporting imports of durable goods, particularly vehicles and electronics, adding more than $1 billion USD to the monthly deficit.

Other sectors likely to feel pressure include tourism and real estate, both of which have experienced significant growth in recent years. Colombia has become an increasingly fashionable destination, and many visitors have later returned to invest in houses and apartments. Today, however, those investments have slowed, while visitors are finding hotels, restaurants and excursions considerably more expensive than they were two years ago.

The reasons behind the peso’s current level are many, but a key factor has been investment flows into Colombia’s attractive local TES bond market through carry trade strategies. That said, profit-taking could soon emerge, particularly if investors begin positioning for a stronger dollar.

Let’s see how “The Tiger” addresses the challenge.

My regards,

Roops

The overall poll was much closer than most expected, 49.7%–48.7%, a difference of just 250,000 votes out of a total of 26 million — almost 25% higher turnout than in 2022, which is great news for democracy. However, Antioquia, where Medellín lies, delivered the victory as he won the province by 1 million votes. Just as importantly, he lost in nearly every other major city in Colombia — including his hometown of Barranquilla.

Combining the slim margin of victory with his struggles in many parts of Colombia raises questions about what he can achieve over the next four years.

As I watched the feral campaign in Medellín while reading Abelardo’s ambitious election manifesto, one question has nagged away:

“Who will end up most disappointed — the supporters of Petro in 2022, or those of Aberlardo in 2026?”

Before Petro came Iván Duque, where there were few expectations and he lived down to them spectacularly. Petro himself benefited from those lost years, getting elected on the promise of changing the lives of the masses forever. Although he achieved several things toward that end, his supporters were largely disappointed, primarily due to his inability to administer.

Will Abelardo suffer the same fate? It could well happen.

He has no political party, will need to horse trade in Congress, and, more concerningly, many parts of Colombia do not want him. Even the huge vote in Antioquia was arguably not for him but for local boy, Vice President José Manuel Restrepo – and for arguably the first time we have a vice president who has genuine power and can provide checks and balances to any radical behaviour.

I have mentioned before the chaos of Duque’s last 12 months in office and the street protests that dogged his reform process. Given his lack of geographical reach, Abelardo would be well advised to tread carefully when trying to roll back reforms. Petro/Cepeda have lost the presidential battle, but 12.7 million votes suggest they are more than prepared for a war if the Tiger pushes too hard on his reform agenda.

The first skirmish of that war could occur if Abelardo follows through with his threat to declare 70 Trump-style decrees on day one in August.

Setting all that aside, Colombia has reconfirmed its status as South America’s preeminent democracy with a record turnout, minimal reports of fraud, even fewer incidents of violence, and paper results delivered in less than 120 minutes.

It only remains to buy the popcorn, sit back, and watch the fun starting in August.

My regards,
Roops

Before we start, I will caveat this short note with my belief that neither run-off candidate on June 21 will prove a solution to Colombia’s issues. The talk of the cafes and bars is that these are the weakest second-round choices in recent memory, and we’ve had some poor ones. Their failings are numerous and are perhaps highlighted by the zealots on both sides of this uber-polarized situation, competing ever harder to throw mud at the other side. Some of the TV advertising is frankly nauseating.

This is more a quick chat about where Donald Trump’s own personal moral compass lies. We already saw with the pardon he granted to convicted former Honduran President Hernández, who was serving 45 years for drug and weapons offenses, that he is more than capable of looking past his own self-proclaimed values on drugs if the offender shares the same political persuasion.

Abelardo will, of course, be delighted that his hero and role model has backed him. He appears to share a scary number of his values and numerous other positions, including withdrawal from institutions such as the United Nations. However, others wonder if it might prove as much of a hindrance as a help, but that remains to be seen on June 21.

The irony (carried over from Hernández) lies in Trump’s support of Abelardo, a week after the extradition to the US of Alex Saab, a mega drug lord allied to Nicolás Maduro, to finally meet his judgment day. Saab is a very inconvenient truth for Abelardo, as he was the man who mounted a vociferous defense of one of Colombia’s most notorious criminals – and Saab is far from the only drug lord he has defended. Of course, there is the argument that everyone deserves a just defense, especially if they have bottomless riches; again, that is a decision for one’s personal conscience.

Finally, last week, we had Washington’s War Ministry announce the sinking of yet another speedboat allegedly laden with drugs, although as yet there has been no proof despite 60-plus such attacks at the cost of more than 200 lives. Again, we are reminded of Washington’s incoherent attitude toward drug cartels – an attitude heavily dependent on one’s political beliefs.

God Bless The Donald.

]]> https://www.financecolombia.com/what-jumps-out-7-days-7-questions/ Sat, 07 Feb 2026 02:06:03 +0000 https://www.financecolombia.com/?p=36833 Welcome to the weekend one and all. A week dominated, or at least that was the perception, by politics. Who will be standing in which primary and who will choose / have to go direct to Round 1 in May. Aside from that, the debate over the impact of the 23% minimum wage increase, continues.

1. How was January inflation from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia ?

2. Is the full impact of the Minimum Wage increase now baked in according to Bancolombia ?

3. How were Exports for December from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia ?

4. How many Presidential candidates do we expect to see on the ballot in May ?

5. Why is Petro again discussing Emergency Economic powers ?

6. What are FENALCO & ANDI – Asociación Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia saying about vehicle sales in 2026 ?

7. How have the markets been this week ?

That is our lot for this weekend. Wherever you are, please have a relaxing and peaceful day.

my regards

Rupert

Many headlines are tied to the fiscal situation in one way or another.

The $16 trillion COP tax reform which is related to the 2026 Budget is in such danger of being sunk by opposition forces that a ‘Plan B’ is already being discussed in the dark corridors of power. I am no tax expert, but it does seem a little top heavy on unpopular measures that might get a Congress member voted out in March if they were to vote for it. Ministerio de Hacienda Avila is struggling on this one.

The tax collection data through October has been published by the DIAN and despite an 11.28% YoY increase to $249 trillion COP and a very healthy $20 trillion COP collection for the month, experts are anticipating that there will be a shortfall of up to $11 trillion COP versus the FY $305 trillion COP target.

The Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia revealed the latest Total Productivity number which rose 0.91% YoY – this is relevant for the country as it will be added to the FY25 CPI estimate of 5.51% to give us a baseline for the impending Minimum Wage discussions. In reality 6.42% won’t be a number even taken into consideration by anyone except the public sector – 10% would be a success & 12% a real possibility.

Fedesarrollo reported the latest Industrial (4.9%) & Retail (22.8%) Confidence data for October. Whilst both are healthy numbers there was a decline on the Industrial side MoM whilst Retail rose.

White Noise Section

The CNE (Electoral Council) is possibly going to sanction Gustavo Petro for exceeding spending limits in 2022. It’s taken three years to discover he probably did what every other candidate ever did. File that alongside candidates photographed with drug lords and the section that says incumbent officials shouldn’t comment on politics.

The US Government (or some low lying official) is stating once again that the strained relations between the two countries could harm trade – a week after 70% of tariffs were removed on Colombian goods. The world is ever more bored and less intimidated by TACO man and almost ironically, if he has finally found a foe small enough to beat in the shape of Venezuela, the number one benefactor would be Colombia.

Have a wonderful day and extended Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving turkey (photo © Loren Moss)

We are six months away from the presidential elections and the government will perhaps look to reward their supporters with a new shiny salary. Whilst this may seem scandalous it is nothing new – the Duque administration agreed to a then-unheard of 10.1% increase as we headed into the 2022 elections.

But that doesn’t make it right. Petro has spent two years railing against the Banco de la República – Colombia for not reducing overnight rates at a faster rhythm – we are at 9.25% and we will be at the same level on New Year’s Eve according to Fedesarrollo. Pouring a 12% salary increase – which feeds into many other facets of Colombian life which are indexed to the same decision.

The economy is going very well and most indicators are heading in the right direction, however that domestic demand is already propping up inflation, driving imports and in turn the country’s deficit. An excessive minimum salary increase is a threat on two fronts. It will impact inflation as suppliers face higher costs and also further push that domestic demand – in an ideal world those on minimum wage would save those extra earnings, but Colombians aren’t built that way.

****All this is easy to say when you aren’t trying to live in a few dollars a month, but equally it needs to be said.***

Elsewhere, September exports from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia rose 11% to $4.6bn driven largely by agriculture. But there was an 11.7% decline (to 13.7mn) in oil barrels sold overseas. Import data in a week’s time will surely condemn us to another huge monthly deficit.

Aside that relatively quiet except for aged politicians desperately looking for an alliance in order to protect the elite from those who would perhaps question their role in Colombia.

Have a great end to the week.

Regards

Roops

No hard working Colombian ideologically has any issue with the cocaine barons being cut off at the knees, however the current tactic of destroying motorboats with missiles from miles away, isn’t the way to go. They may well be up to no good, but with no evidence whatsoever, Trump and his War Department are only alienating themselves further from the countries of Latam. Both Venezuela and Colombia have seen boats attacked, whilst Ecuador have cited the death of one of their innocent citizen in another.

The question is why not stop one of these boats and prove what their ‘irrefutable’ intelligence is telling them ? Therein lies the dilemma for many – Colombian security forces have reported record seizures this year, it would be easier to quantify the situation if the US did the same.

Instead, we have no remorse from Trump, his peanut gallery in Florida or the henchmen who are ordering the attacks – from a nice safe distance. All the while, further inflaming the pre-election polarization in Colombia.

Fedesarrollo lastest October survey saw YE Overnight Rate expectations rise to 9.25%, where we are now, as the CPI estimate also rose from 5.08%-5.28%. Part of the reason for this is GDP which whilst unchanged (2.6%) for 2025, rose 0.1% to 2.9% for 2026. The same survey expects the Stock Market to continue rising despite already surging 56.5% ($ terms) YTD.

This ongoing economic improvement led to another dent in the deficit situation according to Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia. August saw another $2bn added as Imports rose 5.7% YoY whilst Exports dropped 0.1% driven by an 18.1% decline in extractive industries.

Bancolombia also reported economic resilience, with real spending growing 4.72% YoY in September according to their own internal studies.

Away from this week the news is hard to fathom. What is true, rumor, propaganda, pre-election bunkum or influencer imagination…and it is only going to get worse.

Have a good day

Roops

Of course, the plight of Gaza made the headlines because, in some small way, it has been reflected in local politics, with the polarization we have seen around the world appearing in Colombia. The extreme right have pinned themselves to Donald Trump & Benjamin Netanyahu from day one, the left and Gustavo Petro have made their thoughts very clear at the United Nations, whilst ANDI – Asociación Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia and big business, only seem to worry about the Pesos in their pockets. We already see them in the press asking for trade relations with Israel to be re-established immediately – given the historical fragility of the Middle East, perhaps there will be, rightfully, some wait and see.

This will be a big week for the 2026 budget as congress gets back to work after a well-earned holiday (for those not familiar with British sarcasm, this is an example). A couple of weeks ago, along with the tax reform, we seemed to have an agreement. However, these are rabid times in Colombian politics; we could get anything from ‘done’ to ‘lack of quorum’.

We will have the latest real sector data from the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia for August. The most recent figures for July were extremely strong, and analysts will be looking for more of the same. Whilst inflation’s stubbornness has kept overnight rates (9.25%) higher than anticipated at the outset of 2025, growth remains healthy. Bancolombia, in its most recent update, suggests the economy is moving into a more favorable stage, but of course with a wary eye on the deficit situation.

Amidst all this, the stock market remains in rude health despite concerns over the impact of Trumponomics on the US markets. The COLCAP may have dropped 1% on Friday, but it remains 35% (Peso) & 52% (Dollar Terms) higher YTD. Volumes are less than ideal, however, for local investors, it’s been a bumper year.

Finally, for this morning, gold. One of the abject failures of every single government this century is to capitalize on Colombia’s gold reserves. From Uribe to Santos to Duque to Petro, not one of them, or their respective ministers, has done enough to capitalize on an asset that could have paid so many of Colombia’s debts. Instead, there has been a lack of direction, and far too much of the production has fallen into the hands of illegal groups who are receiving the benefits of the increase in gold prices, which seems set to continue.

Have a wonderful week.

Regards.

Roops.

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Headline photo credit: erik_and_so_on from Pixabay.

Venezuela has been in the news of late, as we know, and little of it has been positive; however, overnight, we saw the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a woman who has spent much of the last twelve months in hiding. A woman who has promoted peaceful change, as opposed to the warmonger in Washington who has been pushing his own credentials using coercive and bullying tactics.

Locally, it is now almost impossible to know what to believe when it comes to politics. An ex-president was named in a homicide investigation, an ex-mayor and current candidate for president is in the dock for widespread corruption, and that is without scratching the surface.

Pro-Palestine protests in Medellín, run by hard-right, failed presidential candidate Fico Gutierrez, turned violent as local security forces clashed with small groups of protestors. The blame game continues, but video footage was extremely condemning of the authorities, and more concerning was the provocative language coming from the Mayor’s office via ‘X’ ahead of today’s follow-up protest:

“….the violent pro-Palestine groups controlled by the Gustavo Petro government”

This inflammatory language helps no one in Colombia but harks back to the fact that the extreme right in Colombia has nailed their colors to the Donald Trump mast since he was re-elected, and of course, have to row back on Petro’s comments at the UN two weeks ago.

We are still seven months from the first round of the presidential elections, there are still the thick end of 100 potential candidates, and the situation is perhaps as polarized as it ever has been in Colombia. All are guilty, and the truth is disappearing rapidly – it is a tactic that Trump, sadly, has used to great effect in his divide and conquer strategy, and is being copied by his followers around the world.

Colombia is not unique, but it is where I live, work, and pay my taxes – it is depressing to watch the politicians, few who are worthy of the name public servants, plumbing new depths to hold on to, or seek office, to continue their wanton ways.

Tax reform – nothing. Budget for 2026 – nothing. Pension reform – again in the courts. Those taking these decisions are too busy politicking to help the country move forward.

Have a better day than Colombia will probably have.

Roops.

Never miss Rupert’s latest commentary.
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(Editor’s note: Federico “Fico” Gutierrez did not organize or run the pro-Palestine protests in Medellín as indicated above, and he is serving his second nonconsecutive term as the mayor of Medellín.)

Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE Colombia office in Cúcuta. Photo credit: EEIM/Wikipedia.